Palin's Last Stand

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright October 1, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

              All eyes will be on GOP VP nominee Alaska Gov. Sara Palin, when she debates Democratic VP nominee Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) Oct. 2.  Since delivering her spunky acceptance speech Sept. 4, Palin has only granted four media interviews, preferring carefully scripted stump speeches.  Her acceptance speech was noteworthy for its well-manicured taglines, blasting Democrats for everything under the sun.  Since accepting the nomination, Palin has been roundly criticized inside the GOP for being woefully unprepared for VP, certainly president.  Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) laughed off her claim of foreign policy expertise because she can see Russia from an island in Alaska.  Palin’s interview with CBS News anchor Katie Couric left viewers scratching their heads, especially her inability to name a Supreme Court case other than 1973 Roe v. Wade, legalizing abortion.

            Palin told ABC News anchor Charlie Gibson Sept. 11 that she thought it was a good thing to hunt down terrorists in Pakistan, despite GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) strong criticism of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama. (D-Il.) for suggesting the same.  Palin’s Sept. 4 acceptance speech demonstrated a flair for the dramatic, delivering a well-prepared partisan diatribe.  “The expectations are set so low for her, she could fake everyone out,” said Scott Reed, former 1996 campaign manager of Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), believing the pressure was on Biden, not Palin.  Despite keeping Palin away from the media since her acceptance speech, her limited interviews raised many questions.  She told Couric in segment aired Sept. 30 that she couldn’t recall one publication from which she gets the news on a regular basis.

            Polls show a steady erosion of support for Palin since her Sept. 4 acceptance speech, when 75% of Republicans found her experienced enough for VP.  A new CNN poll indicated that only 47% of Republicans viewed Palin’s experience as sufficient to be VP.  Depite cloistered by the GOP establishment, Palin’s limited interviews have produced plenty of gaffes, leading to her erosion in the polls.  “Palin needs to clear the bar and reframe the debate around Barack Obama and his tax and spend record,” said Reed, a favorite GOP line of attack against liberals.  McCain lost his cool Oct. 1 talking to editors at the Des Moines Register, asking tough questions about Palin’s lack of experience. Insisting that she had plenty of experience, McCain got surly, touting Palin’s credentials as a reformer.  He bristled at suggestions that he picked someone wholly unqualified to be VP or president.

            Palin’s best hope at her debate with Biden Oct. 2 would be to provoke him into a rage, witnessed by 50 million viewers.  Shifting attention away from policy to family, patriotism and military service should take Biden off his stride.  If she accuses Biden or Barack of hiking taxes and weakening the military, he could provoke Biden into a confrontation.  “My friend Joe Biden has a tendency to talk forever and sometimes say stuff that’s kind of stupid,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), trying to lower expectations heading into Thursday’s debate.  Biden needs only to show good manners while he points out Palin’s flaws on foreign and domestic policy, causing more doubts in voters.  Her tough talk on Iran and Russia and disdain for public education and social programs like Medicare and Social Security should cause more worry in already rattled voters.

            Palin will try to make Biden and Obama look unpatriotic for placing a timetable on withdrawing from Iraq.  She’ll paint both as “tax-and-spend liberals,” further endangering the economy and U.S. foreign policy.  Biden must point out Palin’s extreme views on social issues and point to the White House track record on the economy and foreign policy.  Recent economic problems, including the proposed $700 billion bailout, have driven undecided voters away from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden.  Whatever edge McCain had on foreign policy before the Sept. 26 debate, he lost it watching Obama in action.  Since the debate, Barack has opened up an aggregate 5.3% lead in national polls, a 10% reversal in just over a week.  If Palin trips at her debate with Biden, it could throw the campaign into a freefall.  Palin must prove she’s got more substance than current media portrayals.

            Palin’s big challenge is to demonstrate, like Barack did with McCain Sept 26, that she can go toe-to-toe with Biden on foreign and domestic policy.  Her disarming personality presents problems for Biden who must, above all else, show grace-under-pressure, not lose his cool while showing off his many skills in foreign and domestic policy.  Biden needs to do nothing more than let Sara do the talking, answering complex questions with platitudes and predigested one-liners.  Biden need only be himself to show a great contrast with Palin, whose claim-to-fame involves delivering a cleverly worded script at the Republican National Convention.  To escape unscathed, Palin would have to take the Fifth starting with the first question.  Her answers will do more to impeach her credibility than anything Biden could possibly say.  Biden needs to sit back and let the debate come to him.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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