by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Oct. 1, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

ad news for California Democrat gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides: He doesn't have a Popsicle's chance in Death Valley to beat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Nov. 7 election. While there's five weeks left, Angelides has Mount Everest to climb without oxygen, rendering the next five weeks an exercise in futility. Since taking a wrong turn last year, backing a GOP-sponsored special election, Arnold reversed course, hiring former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis' chief of staff Susan Kennedy and remaking himself as a Democrat in Republican clothing. Arnold's yearlong metamorphosis paid off, mending fences with the same Democratic lawmakers he once called “girly men” and transforming himself into the “peoples candidate.” After backing stem cell research and signing an historic global warming pact Sept. 30, Arnold has officially upended his Democratic challenger.

      Schwarzenegger's approval rating plummeted last November trying to push a right-wing agenda on California's progressive voters. He found out the hard way watching his approval ratings sink from 70% when elected Oct. 7, 2003 to 35% Nov. 9, 2005 following his disastrous special election. Arnold got bad advice from Republican leftovers believing victory over Davis gave him a GOP mandate. Most voters were surprised, given his promises to be the “peoples' candidate” while campaigning for governor in '03, that he pushed a conservative agenda. After watching his approval ratings sink and threaten his chances of reelection in '05, Arnold let Kennedy remake his image. Jumping aboard Democrats' liberal causes, Schwarzenegger has given voters no reason to change horses, shown by a commanding 53% to 41% lead in the most recent California Field poll.

      Schwarzenegger climbed 18% in one year, now commanding a 53% approval rating. Angelides strategy attempts to tie Arnold to President George W. Bush, whose approval ratings in California stand at 35%, according to the statewide nonpartisan Public Policy Institute poll. Unfortunately for Angelides, his campaign was geared for last year when voters showed little interest in returning Arnold to Sacramento. After a $27 billion public works bill, throwing his support to stem cell research and defying the GOP signing a groundbreaking global warming bill, Arnold took the wind out of Angelides' sails. There's no longer an excuse for voters keep him out of Sacramento. Even California's disgruntled teachers and nurses no longer have the same opposition, now that Arnold restored billions in lost funding. Angelides' team has nowhere to go other than tying Arnold to Iraq.

      Arnold smartly agreed to only one TV debate, aired on a Friday night when most voters are chilling after a long workweek. Arnold only has to show up and let voters see the differences in the two candidates. Angelides doesn't have a love-affair with the camera, unable to show that freshly pressed look in Italian designer suits. Arnold looks meticulously groomed, free from aberrations highlighted on camera. Like former Gov. Gray Davis, Angelides is charisma-challenged, unable to display the star-power connected with a finely honed image. Angelides likes to point out that California needs as leader not an actor, something that doesn't fly with the movie-going public . Angelides' political consultants have a big order to fill, remaking the 53-year-old California treasurer. A year ago, with Arnold's approval ratings around 35%, charisma wasn't a deal-breaker.

      Angelides wants to force Schwarzenegger to release the embarassing transcripts from six hours of private recordings. When the Los Angeles Times published transcripts of Arnold's vulgar remarks, calling Latina Sen. Martha Escutia (D-Whittier) “hotblooded,” it unearthed hidden racism. After the Times released the transcript, Schwarzegger called his remarks “sickening,” immediately apologizing. His damage control followed the right formula dealing with unacceptable remarks, perceived as bigoted. It's not advisable for an Austrian-born elected official to talking about “bloodlines.” Angelides' strategist Bill Carrick blamed the slide in the polls on inadequate spending, out spent $30 million to $6million by the GOP. Carrick doesn't mention the “charisma” factor, where former governor looks appealing next to the Democratic candidate.

      Using his office for the best PR, team Schwarzenegger has methodically undermined Democrats signing a slew of liberal legislation. While Arnold infuriated the state's GOP naming a Democratic operative as his chief of staff and making friends with the Democratic legislature, he's captured crossover Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans. Angelides has only managed to attract his Party's most hardcore voters. No candidate can win California without appealing to a broad cross-section. Angelides has little room left to attack the liberal-minded GOP governor, now doing “the peoples” work more than ever. Arnold's public positions favoring abortion, stem cell research and global warming are right in line with mainstream voters. While Angelides holds the same views, California politics has whipped Arnold into shape, now ready for a second term.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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