Collision Course for China and Japan

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Sept 29, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

         Squabbling over the sovereignty of what the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands or what Japan calls the Senkaku Islands, rhetoric heated between the two giant Asian economies.  While uninhabited, the disputed area around the islands contains rich natural gas deposits, raising stakes for the dispute.  U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton asked the parties to let “cool heads” prevail, though both foreign offices have done anything but.  “We believe that Japan and China have the resources, have the restraint, have the ability to work on this directly and take tensions down, and that is our message to both sides,” said an unnamed State Dept. official.  Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi accused Japan of illegally buying the islands from a private investor last week.  Yang insisted the remote islands were seized as a spoil of war when Japan defeated the Qing Dynasty in 1895.

            Yang, speaking in New York to the U.N. General Assembly, insisted that the islands were part of China for thousands of years, warning that the Peoples Republic had a right to forcefully retake the islands.  “The moves taken by Japan are totally illegal and invalid,” said Yang, speaking to the General Assembly.  Tokyo denied any wrongdoing, insisting that they bought the islands to keep out activists. China has already retaliated, suspending bilateral trade talks with Japan.  Raising the issue publicly at the U.N. General Assembly ratcheted up the tensions.  “They can in no way change the historical fact that Japan stole the Diaoyudao and affiliated islands and that China has sovereignty over them,” insisted Yang, implying China could take military action like the British did in the 1982 Falkland’s War with Argentina.  Hillary sought to defuse rising tensions between China and Japan

            Were it not for Japan’s ancient history dating back 30,000 B.C. with well-established civilizations in the Mesolithic and Neolithic periods of around 14,000 B.C., China would claim the entire Japanese archipelago of 5,852 islands.  When China and Japan battled in 1895, to the victor went the vanquished spoils.  “It has been since the 1970s that the government of China and the Taiwanese authorities began making assertions on territorial sovereignty over the Senkaku islands,” said Kazuo Kodama, Japan’s deputy U.N. ambassador.  What concerns the U.S. is its mutual defense treaty with Japan, forcing the U.S. to defend Japan in the event of a territorial dispute.  China’s U.N. Ambassador Li Baodong accused the Japanese Ambassador of  “resorting to spurious, fallacious arguments that defy all reason and logic.” If the islands were seized in war, they become Japan’s territory.

            With GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney calling for more aggressive action against Syria and Iran, President Barack Obama has shown more restraint.  Apart from problems in the volatile Middle East, Asia too shows how quickly things can head south.  Any altercation with China and Japan would have global implications, especially if the world’s second and third largest economies start shooting.  “The recent so-called purchase of the islands is nothing different than money laundering,” said China’s U.N. Amb. Li Baodong.  Baodong’s incendiary rhetoric prompted Clinton to hastily call a meeting between Japanese Foreign Ministers Koichiro Gemba and South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan.  Clinton knows the U.S. can ill-afford to be squeezed in a military conflict between China and Japan.  Current obligations require the U.S. to defend Japan against foreign invaders.

            Calling the islands “sacred territory,” China left no doubt they expected Japan to negotiate sovereignty of the islands.  Showing Tokyo’s flexibility, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Osama Fujimura said, “it is necessary for both countries to maintain and strengthen bilateral communications and respond to the issue calmly and with a broad perspective in mind,” hinting Japan was willing to make concessions.  China already announced it was postponing a deal buying refined copper from Japan until resolving the disputed islands.  Sitting on the fence, the U.S. seeks to resolve Japan and China’s dispute peacefully.  A U.S.-Japanese security pact would require the U.S. to defend any attack against Japan.  No uninhabited islands in the South China Sea are worth the U.S. opening up a new front, especially one with China.  Japan knows it must compromise.

            Watching potentially volatile incidents pop up around the globe, Obama’s shown wisdom not rushing into Syria’s civil war or Iran’s alleged attempt to build its first A-bomb.  No matter what the enmity toward Communist China, no U.S. politician wants to see a military confrontation with China.  Whatever existing defense treaties, the State Department will apply maximum leverage to assure Japan resolves its dispute peacefully with China.  If they have to share natural gas reserves around the disputed islands, they’ll have to make appropriate concessions.  “We expect these meetings are going to continue in the lead-up to the East Asia Summit in November,” said a State Dept. official requesting anonymity.  Clinton hopes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN] helps resolve China and Japan’s dispute, without China sending in its new aircraft carrier.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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