by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 27, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

efore stepping onto the stage for their first televised debate, both President George W. Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) will get exhaustive debate preparation. A host of debate, media and public relations experts will give their two cents on everything but the kitchen sink, including make up, attire, presentation, speech, eye contact, hand gestures, body language, every nuance imaginable and, yes, issues and policy, covering every major and minor topic swirling around the 2004 presidential race. When all is said and done, both candidates' heads will be spinning, not certain whether they can pull it off, following tightly scripted blueprints mapped out by high-priced consultants and handlers. But in the end, it's the candidate's gut instincts, passion, spontaneity and sense of humor that will carry the day. TV debating can make or break presidential campaigns.

      Candidates must smile and look like they're having fun. Both must be confident and emphatic when delivering messages. Selling themselves involves electric energy, contagious enthusiasm and eternal optimism. All statements must relate to an audience less impressed with details than getting the big picture. Each candidate must not only get out his own message but must attack and impeach the credibility of his opponent. All attacks must be cheerful, diplomatic and, yes, in good humor. Creating “doubt” involves pointing out inconsistencies that could have disastrous consequences. Whether on foreign or domestic issues, raising fear and doubt gives undecided voters reason to pause. Bush seeks to raise fear about Kerry's fitness to manage the economy and fight the war on terror. Kerry wants to raise doubts about Bush's existing track record on Iraq and the economy.

      Candidates are most effective when using “coercive persuasion,” suggesting his opponent's policies cause a ration of bad news. Bush must show that Kerry's flip-flopping threatens the safety of ordinary citizens. Kerry must counter that Bush's decisiveness has in fact caused the less security and more economic uncertainty. Kerry must remind voters that candidate Bush promised he would not use the military for “nation building,” something embarked upon in Iraq. In 2002, while debating Vice President Al Gore, Bush said he would only use the military to fight and win wars. He assured voters that all military adventures would include an exit strategy. Kerry must point out that in Iraq there is neither an exit strategy nor a plan to win. Bush must counter that Iraq is part of the larger war on terror. Kerry must show that Bush had other options than rushing to war.

      Humor must be used to convey humility and demonstrate the candidate's playfulness without getting overdone. Excessive humor can offend an audience by appearing sarcastic and insincere. Taking things too seriously detracts from an otherwise credible presentation. Using memorable one-liners helps one-up opponents and etches talking points into voters' minds. Kerry must look upbeat and playful while attacking Bush's policies and credibility. Expressing appropriate self-deprecation wins the audience without appearing dour and mean-spirited. Bush must be careful not to attack Kerry where he's vulnerable himself. Painting Kerry as a tax-and-spend liberal might boomerang with today's massive budget deficits. Bush must not appear too defensive while excusing policies that promote big spending and red ink. Kerry must present himself as having better ideas.

      Most pundits believe the debates hinge on Iraq policy. Bush must be careful not to paint himself into a corner, doggedly defending questionable decisions. Kerry will surely present a contrary point of view. Bush will insist that the nation is better off both economically and militarily. Kerry must point out a floundering stock market, anemic jobs growth and listless economy. Kerry must make the link between wasteful spending on Iraq and the current drag on the economy. Bush must argue that his tax cuts shortened the recession and promoted the current economic growth. Kerry must counter that Bush has no plan for ending the war in Iraq or fixing economy. He must show undecided voters that the country can't afford four more years of Bush's polices and decisions. Kerry must show that going down the same path would result in economic and foreign policy disaster.

      Kerry must match Bush's wit and one-liners to assure that undecided voters have a viable option. Bush must tell voters that it's no time to switch management teams. Kerry must insist that new management is essential to turning around the country's current economic and foreign policy mess. Unlike in 2000, Bush has the unenviable burden of a four-year track record. He can't run as the outsider when he's been manning the ship since 2001. While he goes after Kerry's liberal record, he's also vulnerable to his past promises and current mistakes. Kerry need only point out the inconsistencies and raise doubt to reach undecided voters. Neither candidate will be speaking to his base. Both must sell undecided and independent voters on his vision of the future. Whoever keeps his cool, makes the most convincing case and looks like he's having fun will get the big cigar.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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