by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 17, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

ike the boy who cried wolf, President George W. Bush finds himself with less clout over a growing Iranian nuclear threat. When Cruise missiles hit Baghdad March 20, 2003 beginning the Iraq War, Bush squandered his credibility dealing with a far more dangerous and real threat: Iran's development of atomic weapons. Iran's vociferous president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad refused to acquiesce to U.S. pressure to stop enriching uranium instead celebrating Iran's national accomplishment of running 3,000 centrifuges at its Natanz underground nuclear facility. Ahmadinejad believes it's Iraan inalienable right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, permitting developing countries the right to process uranium for peaceful purposes, including running reactors to generate electricity. Iran now faces tough sanctions for ignoring the world's call.

      Iran got a free pass from former French President Jacques Chirac, resisting U.S. calls for sanctions on the U.N. Security Council. France's new President Nicholas Sarkozy supports Bush on Tehran. Unlike Chriac, Sarkozy favors tougher sanctions, fearing that without tough U.N. actions, Bush will eventually bomb Iran's nuclear sites. “The occupants of the Elysee [the French government] have become translators of the White House policies in Europe and have adopted a tone that is even harder, even more inflammatory and more illogical than that of Washington,” said Iran's state-run IRNA news agency, trying to pit Europe against U.S. Members of the Security Council, especially Russia and China, oppose U.S. efforts to impose more U.N. sanctions to contain Iran's growing atomic ambitions. Losing support from France, deals a diplomatic blow to Tehran.

      France's new Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned France Sept. 15 that if Tehran builds a bomb they must prepare for war. If “such a bomb is made . . . we must prepare ourselves for the worst,” signaling a possible U.S. bombing campaign. With the U.S. bogged down with Iraq, the Persians bet that the U.S. won't commit more U.S. troops. While that's probably true, Bush needs a new adventure to take the heat off Iraq. Since Sept. 11, France has been reluctant to take the U.S. side, fearing repercussions within its own Islamic population. In Europe, where Islamic populations continue to rise, endorsing the U.S. invites retaliation something France has been unwilling to do. “France's role is to lead the way to peaceful resolution,” said French Prime Prime Minister Francois Fillon, concerned that Kouchner's comments might spark new protests, unrest and riots.

      International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei expressed gratitude for China's cooperation with the IAEA. “China is not only a recipient but a contributor,” said ElBaradei, seeking China's support in peacefully resolving the nuclear standoff with Iran. While China opposes more U.N. sanctions, ElBaradei called on Iran to honor the U.N. Security Council Resolution, calling on Tehran to suspend all enrichment activity. China supports Iran's right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to process uranium for peaceful purposes, namely, generating electricity. It's been difficult with China and Russia to get sanctions with any teeth. Ahmadinejad has vowed to never suspend Iran's enrichment activities no matter what the consequences. Because of a stalemate on the Security Council, the prospects of the U.S. acting unilaterally have greatly increased.

      ElBaradei can't say with any certainty whether Iran currently pursues atomic weapons. “We are not in a position to declare Iran's programs are exclusively for peaceful purposes but we are moving forward,” said ElBaradei, insisting Tehran was committed to resolving outstanding issues. Recent reports indicate that the U.S. has contingency plans, should diplomacy fail, to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, as well as Revolutionary Guards' al-Quds bases in Southern Iran. While diplomacy moves at a glacial pace, the U.S., like it did in the months before the Iraq War, loses patience. Bush has made it clear he won't leave office with the prospects of a nuclear-armed Iran. “France's role is to lead the way to a peaceful resolution,” said Fillon, the same message given by former French Foreign Minister Dominque de Villepin in the months before the Iraq War.

      Time is running out on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime in Tehran. In a post-Sept. 11 world, Bush won't sit idly by while an avowed enemy attempts to go nuclear. Former Centcom Commander John P. Abizaid told the Center for Strategic and International Studies that the world could live with a nuclear-armed Iran. “Iran is not a suicide nation,” said Abizaid, believing that deterrence, the old theory of Mutual Assured Destruction, applied to Iran. While taking the high ground, urging the White House to avoid military action, Abizaid forgets that Ahmadinejad already promised the U.S. an army of suicide bombers should the U.S. attack. No U.S. president, including the one that replaces Bush in ‘09, could risk negotiating with a rogue nation with proven ties to terrorists. Unless there's real progress on the diplomatic front, the U.S. might have to act unilaterally, no matter what the risks.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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