Netanyahu Pressures U.S. on Iranian Nukes

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Sept 16, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

                 Jumping into the political fray in the 2012 presidential election, 62-year-old Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu warned Sunday that Iran was only six-to-seven months away from building its first A-bomb.  Calling Iran an “existential threat,” Bibi has pushed the Obama administration to take more aggressive action to prevent Tehran from building a nuke.  Bibi insisted that Tehran was “90 percent of the way” toward its first nuclear weapon.  While no one knows for sure how many A-bombs Israel possesses, Netanyahu takes Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seriously when he’s said on more than one occasion he wants to “wipe Israel off the map.”  Some Mideast experts believe that the fiery Ahmandinejad speaks only symbolically.  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Chief Gen. Mohammed Ali Jafari warned Israel that any attack would be countered aggressively.

            Less than two months before U.S. elections, President Barack Obama is in no mood to deal with Netanyahu’s panic.  U.S. nuclear experts don’t see the same urgency as Netanyahu.  “You have to place that red line before them, now, before it’s too late,” said Netanyahu, referring to Iran’s feverish pursuit of enriching uranium.  Netanyahu doesn’t believe that deterrence or containment works, prompting Bibi to push the White House into setting red lines.  What Netanyahu doesn’t get is that the U.S. is war-weary after 11 years in Afghanistan, where four more U.S. soldiers died today.  Barack has practically stood on his head to get Netanyahu to stop all the blustering before the Nov. 6 presidential election.  Barack has been tiptoeing through a minefield with anti-American demonstrations spreading across the Middle East, due only partly to a defamatory Youtube video gone viral.

            Netanyahu knows more than most about the ongoing U.S. war with al-Qaeda.  With Bin Laden dead, it was only a matter of time before the global terror group, now led by 60-year-old Egyptian-born doctor Ayman al-Zawahri, would hit the U.S.  Al-Qaeda struck the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya with rocket-propelled grenades, killing 52-year old Amb. Chris Stevens and three other U.S. citizens.  Netanyahu knows Obama has too much on his plate to contemplate opening up a new front with Iran.  Any attack would almost certainly be met with a vicious Iranian response.  Gen. Jafari has made it clear Iran would at least try to close the Strait of Hormuz, blocking 25% of the world’s crude oil through the Persian Gulf.  While no one knows how long an all-out war with Tehran would take, it would surely cause an oil shock, skyrocketing crude oil and pump prices around the globe.

            Netanyahu makes some good points for preventing Iran from going nuclear.  No one at the White House or Congress disagrees.  “It’s the same fanaticism that you see storming embassies today.  You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?” Netanyahu asked in an NBC interview.  Bibi knows that whatever happens on the streets has little to do with what happens in Iran or with global terror groups like al-Qaeda.  GOP VP candidate Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) tried to tie street protests and recent embassy attacks to Obama’s foreign policy.  Democrats didn’t blame Sept. 11 on former President Bush’s weak foreign policy.  Netanyahu wants Obama to draw a “red line” for Iran that would trigger a U.S. military response.  Bibi knows that no U.S. president would comment or commit himself to any military option unless there’s an implacable national security situation.

            Blustering about “red lines,” Netanyahu hopes to get the backing he wants for a joint military adventure against Iran’s underground nuclear sites.  Nuclear experts have doubts that any attack would deter Iran from enriching uranium.  Speculation about Iran’s nuclear bomb-making capability can’t be the “red line” from which to trigger a U.S. military response.  While Bibi must protect Israeli national security, the U.S. must act independently to assess the risks.  Most U.S. experts don’t concur with Netanyahu’s urgency.  Some U.S. proliferation experts believe that even a nuclear-armed Iran would respond to deterrence.  Regardless of Iran’s saber rattling, it’s doubtful they’d risk total annihilation by attempting to nuke Israel.  Israel’s Mossad may have better intel than the CIA or Britain’s MI6 but they’re still speculating about the current timeline of Iran’s nuclear arsenal.

            Going to war with Iran on pure speculation about Iran’s nuclear capability repeats the same mistake as Bush’s Iraq War.  Unlike Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, Iran has far more sophisticated missile technology, leaving the U.S. Navy vulnerable in the Persian Gulf.  Netanyahu should tone down the incendiary rhetoric until after the U.S. election.  While Netanyahu gets more sympathy from Romney and Ryan, it could push voters into Obama’s direction.  Unlike his Israeli constituency, U.S. voters have war fatigue and currently take Barack’s more cautious approach toward military intervention.  “We will take no option off the table to ensure that [Iran] does not acquire nuclear weapons, including a military option,” said U.N. ambassador Susan Rice.  Before Nov. 6, Netanyahu needs to stop grandstanding and revisit what, if anything, can be done to deter Iran from enriching uranium and working on a bomb.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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