Palin's Unthinkable

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 9, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

              Showing her foreign policy naïveté, GOP vice presidential candidate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin uttered the unthinkable, telling ABC Evening News anchor Charlie Gibson that a war with Russia could not be ruled out.  On the seven-year anniversary of Sept. 11, the first-term Alaska governor urged NATO to adopt former breakaway republics Ukraine and Georgia.  Palin was especially adamant about Georgia who she mentioned in her auspicious debut at the Republican National Convention Sept. 3.  “I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you’re going to be expected to be called upon and help,” Palin told Gibson.  When Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili attacked independent Russian provinces Aug. 8, Russia hit him with a ton of bricks.  Russian troops still occupy Georgia to protect South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

            Saakashvili demonstrated precisely why Georgia should not be included in NATO, impulsively trying to annex Russian provinces and then expecting the U.S. to come to his rescue.  NATO foreign ministers remember well the horrors of the first and second world wars, where Russia killed more of its own citizens and other Europeans than the Nazis.  Palin shows no awareness of post-WW II European pacifism, unwilling to confront militarily countries with belligerent propensities.  Saakashvili demonstrated why NATO must be highly selective in adopting new countries whose leaders show little wisdom and expect NATO to bail them out.  When Saakashvili’s pleas for military help were met with deaf ears in the U.S. and Europe, it signaled the limits of NATO to preserve a delicate peace.  Palin doesn’t quite get Europe’s reluctance to go to war to manage petty border disputes.

            Commemorating the seventh anniversary of Sept. 11, GOP Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) marked the occasion at Ground Zero of the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history.  Both see the need to prevent future attacks by very different means.  McCain believes Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, namely, that al-Qaida in Iraq was responsible for 9/11.  Obama, on the other hand, sees unfinished business in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Whether Palin knows it or not, there’s much work to be done without opening up a Russian or Iranian front.  “What I think is that smaller democratic countries that are invaded by a larger power is something for us to be vigilant against .  .We have got to show the support, in this case, for Georgia.  The support we can show is economic sanctions perhaps against Russia, if this is what it leads to,” said Palin.

            Before preaching policy, Palin has to get her facts right:  Georgia, not Russia, moved aggressively against South Ossetia and Abkhazia, prompting the Russian response.  Georgia, not Russia, is of minor significance to the U.S.  Rushing to judgment against Russia has hurt U.S.-Russian relations, a far worse scenario than defending the amateurish blunder of the neophyte Georgian president.  U.S. officials should publicly clip Saakashvili’s wings, urging the 40-year-old Georgian leader to try to get along with his neighbors.  No matter how much sympathy NATO has for fledgling democracies, foreign ministers won’t be eager to add Georgia when its leadership could provoke WW III.  Fighting a ground war with Russia over Georgia’s inability to get along with its neighbors has no appeal to NATO or sane voices in the U.S.  Palin’s tough talk with the Russians demonstrates her inexperience, bad judgment and possible consequences of her bad decision-making.

            Palin also signaled to Gibson that she’d take a tough stance on Iran, who’s currently embarked on a crash uranium enrichment program.  McCain has already said that “the only thing worse than war is a nuclear armed Iran,” signaling his White House would not tolerate Iran getting an A-bomb.  Two foreign policy threats loom for the next administration:  (1) Iran continuing to enrich uranium and (2) U.S. installing missile defense in Eastern Europe.  Iran’s hothead president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has signaled in no uncertain terms that Iran will not suspend or curtail its uranium enrichment program.  Russian President Dimitry Medvedev has promised to bomb U.S. missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Judging by Palin’s responses to ABCs’ Gibson, she leaves military confrontation as a viable option.   Any confrontation with Russia would be disastrous.

           Palin would no doubt go to a lot of funerals under a McCain presidency, unlikely to have much role in foreign policy or, for that matter, fulfilling her wish to end to Roe v. Wade or pass Constitutional amendments banning abortion and gay marriage.  Should something happen to McCain all bets are off.  Entertaining a military confrontation with Russia shows how little she knows about NATO, whose members seek to avoid military confrontation at all costs.  If adding Georgia, Ukraine or any other former Soviet satellite to NATO means an increased chance of military confrontation with Russia, it’s highly unlikely to happen.  Palin believes she’s ready to be president.  Judging by her responses to Gibson, she needs a lot of on-the-job training.  Rushing to judgment, antagonizing Russia and pushing the world closer to the brink does little to reassure her critics at home or abroad.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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