Russia Calls the Shots

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 7, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

               Proving they can still beat the U.S. at international chess, Russia consolidated its gains after their Aug. 8 rescue of Georgia’s independent provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  When the Red Army moved across the Georgian border Aug. 8, it repelled an attempted takeover by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.  Saakashvili learned a bitter lesson that, despite his alliance with the U.S. and Israel, Russia still controls its backyard.  Saakashvili pleas for U.S. help fell on deaf ears, watching his country split in two by the Russian army.  Russia President Dimitry Medvedev expressed his dissatisfaction with U.S. meddling in Georgia, supplying Georgia with military and humanitarian aid.  Medvedev also didn’t appreciate U.S. officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, blaming the problem on “Russian aggression “

            Georgia has become a dangerous political football in this year’s battle for the White House.  GOP presidential nominee John McCain (R-Ariz.) and his new VP pick Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin also rubber stamped the White House, blasting Russia for violating Georgia’s sovereignty.  Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) and his VP pick Sen. Joe Biden (D-Md.) have been more reticent to condemn Russian actions.  President George W. Bush’s tough talk with Russia has made it virtually impossible to gain leverage in the U.N. Security Council with Iran on halting its nuclear enrichment program.  Antagonizing the Russians has resulted in a possible permanent occupation of Georgia and expectation that Medvedev and his Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will veto any further U.N. sanctions—economic, cultural or military—against the Persian nation. 

            Announcing $1 billion in fresh economic aid to Georgia, Bush pushed the Russian Federation to form a new treaty organization.  Medvedev signed Sept. 6 a mutual defense agreement called the Collective Security Treaty Organization with the central Asian nations of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, setting up, in effect, a new Warsaw pact-type in the Caucasus states.  Bush’s decision to leap ahead with Boeing to install missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic has made virtually impossible any diplomatic resolution of Iran’s nuclear enrichment stalemate.  Without Russia agreeing on the Security Council to more sanctions, there’s no leverage the U.S. has to bring against Tehran.  Taking sides in Georgia has also made U.S.-Russian relations more complicated, where Medvedev sees the U.S. as meddling in Russian foreign affairs.

           Bush always boasted of his “close” personal relationship with Putin, who, during the last eight years, dismantled Russia’s free press, persecuted political dissidents, reversed hard-fought free-market reforms won under former Soviet premiers Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin and expropriated private enterprise.  U.S. support for Georgia hinges on the continuation of a major oil and natural gas pipeline run from the Caspian sea, through Georgia to supply energy to Europe, in direct competition with Yukos and Gazprom, Russia;s nationalized oil and natural gas monopolies.  Saakashvili’s gross miscalculation now brings Russia and the U.S. the closest since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to a military confrontation.  Had he gotten his way, he would have had U.S. troops defend Georgia against the Russian army.  All the White House and McCain campaign gunboat diplomacy makes matters worse.

            Forming a new alliance, Medvedev hopes to discourage other former Soviet republics from depending on U.S. support.  Pushing Georgia or other former Soviet states into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization won’t add to their security.  Cheney visited this week Azerbaijan, Georgia and Belarus, further antagonizing Moscow.  Stationing the flagship of the U.S. Mediterranean off a Georgian port and delivering humanitarian aid also doesn’t encourage Moscow to cooperate.  “We don’t want Georgia, which acted as the aggressor, to continue to arm herself in an uncontrolled way and with unknown aims and completely unclear consequences,” said Medvedev, putting the White House on notice that supplying more aid to Georgia makes diplomatic relations worse.  Given the circumstances with Georgia, NATO won’t be too encouraged to go to war to protect a U.S.-backed pipeline.

            White House officials can’t decide which has bigger priority:  Protecting Georgia’s oil pipeline or containing Iran’s growing nuclear threat.  Antagonizing Russia by blaming the Georgian situation on “Russian aggression” and installing missile defense in Poland and the Czeh Republican doesn’t promote the kind of cooperation on the U.N. Security Council needed to stop Iran from enriching uranium.  Rescuing Saakashvili at the expense of military confrontation with Russia makes no sense for either the U.S. or NATO.  Saakashvili must stop whining about “Russian aggression,” take responsibility for his political blunder and allow his diplomats to get along with his neighbor.  Manipulating the U.S or NATO into fighting his battle doesn’t advance U.S. national security.  McCain and Palin’s recent remarks that “we’re all Georgians” set  a very dangerous precedent.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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