Barack's Sagging Approval Ratings

by John M. Curtis
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Copyright Sept. 5, 2010
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             Great expectations and high hopes accompanied President Barack Obama’s election Nov. 4, 2008, breaking the color barrier and tossing conventional wisdom to the wind about racial politics.  Converging factors, including the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and a deteriorated economy, helped vault the relatively political newcomer into the White House.  Barack’s stardom started July 28, 2004 at the Democratic National Convention.  His fortunes rose winning the U.S. senate in Illinois, rapidly becoming the rising star in the Democratic Party.  When New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer admitted March 18, 2008 to soliciting a high-priced call girl, Obama’s fortunes turned golden.  Spitzer, considered by Democratic Party insiders as a presidential hopeful, sabotaged his political career and handed Obama the eventual keys to the Oval Office.  Today’s great hope has vanquished into mediocrity.

            Barack’s approval ratings have dropped about 20 points since his inauguration Jan. 20, 2009.  Floating on cloud-9, Obama enjoyed unreal approval ratings at 68%, only to find it drop today to an aggregate 46.4%, not too shabby when you consider the dismal state of the economy.  Heading into the midterm elections, comparisons have been made to former President’s Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.  While Clinton recovered from losing the House in 1994 to reelection in 1996 against retired Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), Carter’s fortunes were far less auspicious in 1980.  He lost his reelection bid in a landslide to the late President Ronald Reagan, one of the most popular presidents of the 20th century, perhaps in U.S. history.  History also shows that third-party candidate H. Ross Perot (I-Texas), siphoned off votes from Dole, helping secure Clinton’s reelection in 1996.

             Some experts attribute Obama’s slip in the polls to his ambitious legislative agenda, especially health care and Wall Street reform, during a crushing recession.  Gallup’s Frank Newport thinks Obama’s decline in the polls stems from the public’s perception that his government fixes, including a $787 billion federal bailout program, hasn’t worked.  Relentless right wing talk shows haven’t helped Barack’s approval ratings with crossover Republicans and independents.  As the economy continues to falter, the blame fixes squarely on the White House, a natural target to disgruntled voters.  With unemployment at 9.5% nationwide, Barack can’t get the kind of traction witnessed by Reagan in 1983-84 when the economy finally started to rebound.  Clinton was helped in 1992 by a stubborn recession that upended the reelection bid of former President George H.W. Bush.

                 Republicans look forward to return the favor to Democrats in November, after the 2008 drubbing.  Voters have grown more impatient with government fixes what many economists regard as the worst economy since the Great Depression.  Expectations point toward economic weakness, though one never knows with the stock market.  A broad-based market advance now could turn around the dismal jobs picture.  So far, Barack faces stiff headwinds when it comes to the economic downturn, turning his attention to Mideast peacemaking.  His Sept. 2-3 summit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas diverts attention away from the economy.  When Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced Sept. 3 both parties wished to resume their peace talks in two weeks, Obama got an immediate bounce in the polls.

            Buying the right wing “socialist” argument, some voters show amnesia over Bush’s $687 billion bailouts of federal mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, AIG Insurance, Investment bank Bear Stearns and many other financial institutions.  When the banking industry ran out of cash, Bush and his Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had no choice but to act to save the nation’s biggest financial institutions.  Right wing talk shows blame only Obama for his socialist ways, forgetting quickly all of Bush’s bailouts.  Hoping for a massacre on Election Day, the GOP forgets that Obama’s approval ratings during a punishing recession remain in the mid-40s.  Bush’s dipped below 30% at the end of his second term.  Should the economy show some life and should Barack do in Afghanistan what he just did in Iraq, he could easily see a 10-15% bounce in his polls.

            Panic over Barack’s sinking approval ratings are grossly exaggerate in GOP circles.  Any improvement in the U.S. economy or any resolution to the Afghanistan conflict, or, for that matter, any breakthrough in Mideast peacemaking, could help Obama reverse his current doldrums.  Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod didn’t buy the prevailing wisdom that Barack bit off more than he could chew on his legislative agenda, especially pushing through health care reform.  “When you package it all together, it can be too big to succeed as a public-relations matter,” said Axelrod, explaining that it’s tough to sell the public on too many changes.  Given the rotten economy and mounting death toll in Afghanistan, it’s no wonder that Barack can’t gain traction in his approval ratings.  Any improvement in the economy or exit strategy in Afghanistan, he could see an abrupt reversal of fortunes.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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