Israel's Collision Course

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 2, 2008
All Rights Reserved.                    

               Frustrated by the United Nation’s inability to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, Israel reportedly decided that it will take any means necessary to prevent the Persian nation from going nuclear.  Iran’s firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stubbornly opposed U.S., U.N. and NATO efforts to reason with Tehran.  Ahmadinejad and Iran Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Kamenei believe Iran has an inalienable right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to complete the “nuclear fuel cycle,” including making weapons grade uranium.  Where the West and Iran depart is over the definition of “peaceful purposes,” where Iran insists it only intends to use fissile material to generate electric power.  When Pakistan secretly got the bomb in 1998, the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her successor Malik Meraj Khalid, talked only of Paikisntan’s “peaceful” interest in atomic power. 

            Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials insist that the West can’t stop Iran from going nuclear.  Iran has warned that any attempt by any Western power—including Israel—would be met with massive retaliation.  Iran possesses long-range Shahab-3 missiles capable to hitting anywhere in Israel or U.S. installations in the Persian Gulf.  Should Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran promised a massive strike on Israel’s top-secret Dimona nuclear facility, 10 kilometers south of Dimona in the Negev desert.  Dimona went online in 1962-63 and has been making plutonium and enriched uranium ever since.  Israel is not a signer on any nuclear treaty, nor do they officially acknowledge possessing any A-bombs, rumored at around 200.  If Israel or the U.S. bombs Iran’s nuclear sites and Iran hits Dimona, it could trigger an environmental catastrophe of epic proportions.

            Iran continues to publicly boast of its growing numbers of centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment facility.  Despite calls for Iran to back down, Ahmadinejad has pushed ahead with Iran’s enrichment program.  “Right now, nearly 4,000 centrifuges are operating at Natanz, Deputy Foreign Minister Al Reza Sheikh Attar told the Iran’s IRNA’s state news agency.  “Currently, 3,000 other centrifuges are being installed,” causing panic inside Israel and real preparations for a bombing campaign.  Pan-Arabic “Al Kuds al-Arabia” newspaper reported Aug. 29 that Iran supplied Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon with long-range missiles, in preparation for an Israeli attack.  “There is no government in Jerusalem that would ever reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran,” said Ephraim Sneh, a former Labor-MK leader, sending both U.S. presidential candidates, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), the confidential memo.

          New Dutch intel indicates that the U.S. might strike Iran’s nuclear sites first,  before Israel.  An AIVD Dutch intelligence service report in the Netherland’s “De Telegraaf” reports that an impeding attack could be carried out by unmanned U.S. aircraft“within weeks,” raising the diplomacy states.  Iran shows no evidence of backing down, realizing U.S. elections hang in the balance .  Most experts agree that a U.S. or Israeli attack would favor McCain, since he has the most national security experience   His naming of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the ticket, could give voters second thoughts, given the fragile state of U.S. foreign relations.  “When it is clear Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, an Israeli military strike to prevent this will be seriously considered,” Sneh told Israel’s “Ma’ariv” newspaper, trying to push Tehran into making concessions on its enrichment program.

            Shortly after Russia invaded Georgia Aug. 8, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Tehran about attacking Israel. Iran’s recent missile tests, though some were bogus, attempt to intimidate the U.S. and Israel into backing down.  “We take very very strongly our obligations to help our allies defend themselves and no one should be confused about that,” said Rice both warning Iran and Russian.  While floating humanitarian-supplied ships in the Black Sean, the U.S. offered no military assistance to Georgia, despite President Mikhail Saakashvili’s desperate pleas.  Rice watched helplessly while Russian tanked rolled over Georgia, liberating South Ossetia and Abkhazia, continuing to occupy the tiny Caucasus nation.  Rice used recent Iranian missile tests to sell missile defense to Poland and the Czech Republic,  a growing flashpoint with Russia.

            Complicating the international picture, U.S. and Israeli threats against Tehran pose dangerous riptides with Russia.  Russia’s overreaction in South Ossetia and Abkhazia was linked to the U.S. decision to plow ahead with missile defense in Eastern Europe.  Russia doesn’t like getting lectured by the U.S. about what it does around its border when the U.S. occupies Iraq and Afghanistan.  Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused the U.S. of delivering weapons to Georgia from its ships in the Black sea, not simply humanitarian aid.  With Israel putting pressure on Tehran, the U.S. must recalculate its decision to move ahead with missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Russian President Andrei Medvedev has warned the U.S. that such installations would be bombed., forecasting an ominous confrontation somewhere in the not too distant future.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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