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Ukraine Threatens All Out War with Russia
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
September 1, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Ukraine’s newly minted 48-year-old president Petro
Poroshenko doesn’t get what he inherited since taking office June 7. While talking tough on Ukrainian
nationalism, he lacks the military firepower and backing from the United States
and European Union to stave off pro-Russian separatists in Southeaster Ukraine
that want no part of his pro-Western Kiev government. Talking about a “great war” is utterly ludicrous when his own troops can hold their own
against pro-Russian separatists in Southeastern Ukraine. If Poroshenko doesn’t come to his
senses, he’ll wind up like Georgian President Mikheil Saashkavili who lost 25%
of Georgian territory to Russia in 2008.
Saahashkavili pushed Russian President so far that he moved in the
Russian army and seized South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Ukraine doesn’t have the resources but, more importantly, the political will to fight the
Russian Federation.
Meeting in Minsk, Belarus, Poroshenko hoped to get the backing he needed
from the European Union. “A great
war arrived at our doorstep, the likes of which Europe has not seen since World
War II,” said Ukraine Defense Minister Vlaeriy Geletey, vowing, in front of EU
foreign ministers, to “immediately mount defenses against Russia, which is
trying not only to secure positions held by terrorists before but to advance on
other territories in the Ukraine,” begging for EU help. Once considered possible membership in the EU, Poroshenko and Geletey guarantee that
Ukraine will never be part of the EU or NATO.
No one in either body wants to defend a country at war with Russia. After losing Crimea March 1 to
Russia, Poroshenko doesn’t get that he presides over a different Ukraine, no
longer possessing Crimea and very close to losing Donetsk, Lugansk and other
parts of Southeastern Ukraine.
Pointing fingers at Putin only makes the prospects of retaining
Southeastern Ukraine less likely.
Putin no doubt shares common interest with Southeastern Ukraine but isn’t the
driving force behind the pro-Russian separatist movement. Once anti-Russian elements—possibly
with CIA help—toppled the duly elected pro-Russian government of Viktor
Yanukovich Feb. 22, Southeastern Ukraine expressed no interest in joing the
post-revolutionary Kiev government.
Putin was stuck hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics while pro-Western
demonstrators led by 42-year-old Vilali Klitschko drove Yanukovich out of Kiev. Fallen off the radar, the vociferous
Klitschko lapsed into obscurity.
Pro-Western demonstrators upended Ukraine’s stability, leading to today’s civil
war. Yanukovich’s pro-Russian ties
held Southeastern Ukraine together, despite leanings toward Moscow.
There’s little difference to what happened in Moldova’s Transnistria
region when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
Many former Soviet Satellites—and Ukraine is no exception—preferred ties
to Moscow who provided generous government jobs, health care and pension
benefits. Once the Soviet Union
disbanded, it left many former Soviet satellites unable to provide adequate
government help. Over 23 years
later, those same populations haven’t seen the promises of capitalism redeemed,
prompting former Soviet citizens to reunite with Moscow. Putin has accused the Ukrainian
military of “direct targeting” of civilians, prompting Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov to demand a halt to Ukrainian violence. Pro-Russian separatists pushed out
Ukrainian troops from a military airfield near Lugansk, proving that the
Ukrainian military lacks the firepower or will to fight.
In the strategic Black Sea port of Mariupol, pro-Russian separatists
continue to advance on what amounts to a strategic bridge to Russia. Reports of Ukrainian troops
retreating from the region indicate Ukraine can’t defend strategic ports. “The town is being erased off the
face of the Earth,” said Yelena Proidak, a resident of Petrovske, in between
Donetsk and Lugansk. “There is no
normal life there,” admitting there’s no longer a commanding legal authority,
certainly not from Kiev. Ukrainian
authorities don’t get the big picture that there’s no life preserver on the way
from the U.S. or EU. Poroshenko
must accept the reality of a newly configured Ukraine, regardless of how they
want to return to the pre-March 1 borders.
When Klitschko’s bands of pro-Western demonstrators toppled Yanukovich
there was going to be repercussions now plaguing the region and changing the
map.
Asking the U.S. and EU to fight Ukraine’s battle with Russia is
unrealistic and inappropriate. With
30% of its energy coming from Russia, the EU is not in a position of pushing
Russian relations to the breaking point.
“We must face the reality that Russia . . considers NATO an adversary,”
said NATO Chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
“We cannot afford to be naïve,” not realizing the Ukraine has painted a
bleak picture of Russian expansionism.
Expected to meet with President Barack Obama at a two-day NATO summit it
Wales Sept. 4, Poroshenko hopes to win more U.S. backing to stave off Russian
annexation of Southeastern Ukraine.
Obama or Rasmussen for that matter has no rabbit to pull out of their hats. Poroshenko must face reality that the Ukrainian map has changed since taking power. Slapping Russia with more sanctions
only makes a bad situation worse.
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