by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright September 1, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing a monkey wrench into White House plans to get tough with Iran, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin signaled he has no plans of approving punitive sanctions for Iran's defiance against suspending its uranium enrichment program. Russia holds one of the five possible vetoes on the U.N. Security Council, tying President George W. Bush's hands, seeking strict measures against Tehran. When Bush denied Russia entrance into the G-8 last month, it was virtually certain that Putin would oppose any attempt to impose punitive sanctions. “We take into account the experience of the past and we cannot ally ourselves with ultimatums which lead to a dead end,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, serving notice that Russia supports Iran's atomic activities, especially considering Russia's direct technological help in building Iran's nuclear reactors.

      Russia trades heavily with Tehran, now totaling $2.2 billion, much of which related to arms sales and technology transfers. U.N. economic sanctions would undoubtedly hurt Russia's bottom line, a price Putin is not willing to pay. Russia views U.S. Mideast policy has meddlesome, where Bush has publicly stated he intends to remake the map, promoting his pro-democracy agenda. When Thursday's deadline to stop enriching uranium came and went, it became obvious that the U.S. has little remaining clout with Tehran. Whatever past enmity exists from the hostage crisis in late ‘70s, the U.S. must get over it and realize Russia supports Tehran's domestic and foreign policy. Putin has no problem supporting Iran's “peaceful” atomic energy program. Developing its first nuke would hold Tehran's enemies at bay, including the U.S. and Israel.

      Taking the wind out of Bush's push for sanctions, the Pentagon announced Thursday the Tehran is at least five years away from its first A-bomb. While a grave concern to the White House, the rest of the world yawns over Iran's possible atomic threat. Bush casts Iran's feverish pursuit of A-bombs as a global struggle against “Islamic Fascism,” something compared to 20th Century Nazis and Fascists, eventually leading to the Holocaust and World War II. Engaged in a fierce battle to retain GOP control of Congress, Bush's rhetoric seeks to justify the Iraq War, costing the nation over $400 billion and 2,600-plus lives. With public support waning and November elections up in the air, Bush launched an all-out propaganda offensive designed to convince voters that Iraq is a must-win situation. Bush said bipartisan calls to reduce troops and leave Iraq irresponsible.

      Democrats have yet to take a coherent position on Iraq. Most politicians, like Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), are reluctant to set timetables for leaving Iraq, believing that opposing the war hurts Democrats' chances in November and beyond. Bush frequently calls artificial timetables ill-advised, preferring lately to hammer home the idea that Islamic Fascists threaten U.S. national security. While there's never been any reliable link to Iraq, Bush continues to emphasize how Iraq's victory will keep terrorists off American streets. Bush warned the American Legion Annual Convention in Salt Lake City that if the U.S. left Iraq prematurely the battle would wind up on American soil, once again linking Iraq's insurgents with terrorists responsible for Sept. 11. U.S. involvement in Iraq has made it more difficult to restrain a growing Iranian nuclear threat.

      Iran's radical president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flashed his true hand, sounding a defiant tone, telling a boisterous rally that Iran would never give up its nuclear program. For a month, Admadinejad promised sincere negotiations on the U.N. Security Council's July 31 resolution demanding Iran suspend all uranium enrichment activities. He blamed the West for “misrepresenting” Tehran's goal of a peaceful nuclear technology, denying White House claims Iran seeks to build A-bombs. Ahmadinejad and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei insist that Iran has a right to pursue peaceful nuclear technology under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. While the White House hoped to gain more support for Iran's defiance, the U.N. appears to be backing away from sanctions with teeth. Only the U.S., and more reluctantly Great Britain, insists on real consequences for Iran's defiance.

      Lecturing the U.N. Security Council about Iran won't change Russia or China's mind to veto any attempt to impose punitive sanctions. Not only do Russia and China have deep economic ties to Tehran they oppose Bush's pro-democracy plan in the Middle East. Calling Iraq's insurgents “Islamic Fascists” doesn't automatically win acceptance from skeptical Security Council members, asked to believe that Iran's atomic ambitions threaten the region. Had the U.S. not squandered its political capital on Iraq, otherwise hostile members might have been more helpful with Iran. Whether Tehran is really five years from its first A-bomb is anyone's guess. Without the Security Council bending to U.S. wishes, Ahmadinejad will have free rein to enrich uranium. Russia and China have made it virtually certain that the U.S. will be forced to take forceful unilateral action to stop Tehran's atomic plans.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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