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Don't Blame Putin for Southeastern Ukraine
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
August 31, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Debating in Brussels whether or not European Union
foreign ministers should slap Russia with more economic sanctions over Eastern
Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin defiantly suggested it’s time to
consider statehood or autonomy for the region.
Locked in a bloody civil war with Ukrainian President Petrol Poroshenko,
press reports point to Putin arming and supplying Russia troops to pro-Russian
separatists showing no interest in joining Kiev’s pro-Western Ukrainian
government.. Since toppling
Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich Feb. 22, Putin took only
one week after the Sochi Winter Olympics to annex the strategic Crimean
Peninsula. Already in hot water
with the U.S. and EU, Putin cleverly followed a strategy of arming pro-Russian
separatists to get to the point that Southeastern Ukraine breaks off from Kiev,
precisely where things stand today.
U.S. and EU officials have ratcheted up sanctions in hopes of bringing
Putin to his senses, prompting German Chancellor Angela Merkel to remark Putin
seems “in his own world.” When the
U.S. and EU backed the coup that toppled Yanukovich they didn’t consider the
repercussions in Eastern Ukraine.
Already alienated from Kiev, upending Russian-backed Yanukovich created today’s
power vacuum, making reconciliation with Kiev more difficult. “We need to immediately begin
substantive talks . . .on questions
of the political organization of society and statehood in Southeastern Ukraine,”
Putin was quoted as saying in Russian news agencies. U.S. and EU officials are bound to
react harshly but Putin essentially mirrors facts-on-the-ground in Southeastern
Ukraine, not only his own preferences.
Whoever organized the Feb. 22 coup, they failed to recognize
irreconcilable differences in Ukraine.
When Modova broke away from Romania and declared statehood in 1991, its
narrow strip east of the Dniestr river known as Transsnistria refused to
recognize Chininau, eventually fighting and winning a war for autonomy from
Moldova. While the U.S. and the EU
love to blame Putin for creating all the unrest, Ukraine’s Southeastern cities
of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sloviansk, Luhansk, etc., all the way down to the port of
Markupol have loyalty to Mother Russia, all in large part to their historical
ties to the Soviet Union. When the
Soviet Union disbanded in 1991, the region kept close ties to Moscow but lost
much of the government largess that paid salaries, provided health care and
retirement benefits. However
Poroshenko tries to sell Southeastern Ukraine on staying loyal to Kiev, the
breakaway area—like Transnistria—prefers closer ties to the Kremlin..
Talking about “Novorossiya,” the old Tzarist term for new Russia, Putin
stirred the pot in Brussels.
Seeking “inclusive talks,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted Putin wasn’t
talking about independence from Ukraine but rather an arrangement that can
satisfy all parties. “Only in
Southeast Ukraine can agree with Noveorossiya,” said Peskov, giving an X-ray
into Putin’s thinking. When Crimea
voted for independence March 17, it was all the excuse Putin needed to
consolidate Russian annexation of the strategic peninsula, home to Russia’s
Black Sea Fleet. With Poroshenko
ordering what’s left of the Ukrainian military to take back parts of Eastern
Ukraine, he walks a dangerous tightrope, potentially prompting Putin to order a
full-scale annexation. Porshenko
should talk to Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakaskvili who lost South Ossetia
and Abkhasia to Russia in 2008.
Poroshenko warned
the EU in Brussels that if Putin isn’t stopped in Eastern Ukraine, other former
Soviet satellites, including the Baltics, could go in the same direction. Balking at more sanctions Aug. 29,
EU officials warned Moscow that more sanctions could be on the way if more
meddling occurs in Eastern Ukraine.
Kiev expressed concerns about increased numbers of Russian troops amassed along
border and more crossed over into Ukraine. “Terrorists and Russian soldiers continue to concentrate in regional centers,” said
security spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
Saying Russia’s “military aggression and terror” could lead to “full-scale war,”
Petroshenko should dial back the rhetoric and realize that Ukraine has a real
problem with its Southeastern provinces.
No matter how much Putin would like to see Eastern Ukraine independent or
join Russia, he has no personal dog in the fight.
Attacking Putin makes good headlines in the U.S. and EU but does nothing
to understand the pro-separatist movement in Southeastern Ukraine. While it’s true Putin has loyalty to Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine, it’s also true
the current unrest would not have happened had pro-Western elements—possibly the
CIA—not toppled Russian-backed Yanukovich Feb. 22. Whether Putin aids-and-abets
pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine or not, the region doesn’t want to
follow Petroshenko and his pro-West agenda.
There’s nothing Putin can do to change the hearts-and-minds of
pro-Russian separatists. No one
knows for sure what happened Feb. 22 while Putin hosted the Sochi Games. Whatever happened, Ukraine split
along Western and pro-Russian lines, creating another potential Transnistria,
where certain Moldovans refused to follow Chisinau, showing their loyalty to
Moscow.
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