by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 28, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

urging ahead in the polls, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean upended conventional wisdom, believing that a progressive candidate couldn't attract a wide swath of voters. Crisscrossing the country in what's billed as “The Sleepless Summer Tour,” referring to restless nights on a crowded charter jet, Dean grabbed the headlines on his eight-day marathon, drawing impressive crowds from New York City to Seattle, where he drew crowds of over 10,000. From the get-go, Dean took off the gloves, going after President Bush on virtually every issue but especially the war on Iraq. While considered political suicide at first, Iraq has become the White House's Achilles heel, with growing concerns about the war's costs and casualties. Dismissed early on as a New England left winger, Dean's message—especially about Iraq—is beginning to resonate around the country.

      Before Tomahawk Cruise Missiles rained down on Baghdad, Dean vehemently opposed unilateral military action, believing the U.N. offered the best way to manage impending global risks. In a post-9/11 era, the White House easily sold the idea of toppling Saddam Hussein, viewing Saddam's regime as a “gathering” threat to U.S. national security. Even then, Dean was out-of-step with mainstream voters, more concerned with national security than saving face at the U.N. But since formal combat operations ended on May 1, more troops have been killed than during the war, leaving open questions about the ongoing mission and exit strategy. Without finding weapons of mass destruction, Bush has had a difficult time justifying the continued loss of U.S. lives. Suddenly, Dean finds himself getting through, clearly distinguishing himself from his rivals unwilling to take on the White House.

      Pollster John Zogby announced that Dean leads his closest rival in New Hampshire, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), by 21%, deriving support from all regions of the state, among men and women, Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates. “Dean has spent considerable resources on TV so it's not surprising he's increased his numbers in a very fluid electorate,” said Kerry campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs, finding a silver lining to Dean's surprising surge. But beyond transient numbers, Kerry has reason to sweat, whose campaign so far hasn't generated much excitement. Unlike Kerry, Dean wears his emotions on his sleeves, letting his passion do the talking. Instead of pulling punches, Dean showed moxie speaking out against Iraq, even when it ruffled feathers, criticizing a popular wartime president. Dean's recent success spells trouble his Democratic rivals—and President Bush.

      Zogby's recent poll shows support fading for Dean's closest rivals, including former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, whose support dropped to only 6%, the same number shared with the once popular former vice presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.), whose popularity also continues to dwindle. Hinting at his success, “We have to be in the president's face to win,” said Dean, dredging up lingering sentiment from the 2000 election. Dean's outsider status, willingness to confront the White House and his spunk at selling his progressive agenda struck a cord with disgruntled voters. “I think he's going to be around past Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Gephardt senior strategist Bill Carrick,” unwilling to concede yet that Dean represents the one to beat. Like Jimmy Carter in 1976 or Bill Clinton in 1992, Dean also shows signs of moving toward the middle and broadening his appeal.

      Unlike Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman, Dean rolls up his sleeves and speaks with populist passion. It's not only his stance on Iraq that moves audiences. Whether the economy, health care, the environment or education, Dean voices disdain for the status quo, encouraging audiences to dream about something better. “There's no question that he's captured something,” said Carrick, focusing on Dean's antiwar rhetoric but unable to recognize his charisma—not stands on specific issues—that moves voters, and, yes, contributes to his prodigious fund raising. Without taking the right pulse and resonating with voters, Dean wouldn't have the fund raising success needed to win the nomination. “We want to demonstrate that were are a national campaign,” said Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, satisfied that the latest eight-day swing helped approach a $1 million fund raising goal.

      Seeking to raise $10.3 million by Sept. 30, Dean hopes to break fund raising records en route to next summer's nomination. While it's premature to generalize beyond Zogby's current poll, Dean has best articulated Democrats' frustrations, now propelling him into the lead. “When the president talks, sometimes the opposite of what he says is really the truth,” said Dean, speaking to a union convention in Chicago. “And if we don't call him on it, we can't win,” reminding his audience he won't let up and intends go after Bush at every opportunity. With the economy still sputtering and U.S. soldiers dying in Iraq, Dean's message resonates on both coasts. “We have the momentum,” Dean said. “Keeping it going is going to be a struggle,” showing why he must be taken seriously. Coming from virtually nowhere, Dean knows how to stay focused, continue grinding away, and, most of all, keep his ego under control.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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