by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Aug 24, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

                  When former President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom Oct. 7, 2001 in the wake of Sept. 11, few expected that nearly nine years later the outcome was far from certain.  Recent reports from Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen indicate, in fact, that the situation has gotten worse.  War casualties for U.S. troops have traded places with Iraq, now pushing nearly 80 deaths a month.  “I think it is serious and it is deteriorating, and I’ve said that over the past couple of years—that the Taliban insurgency has gotten better. More sophisticated,” said Mullen Aug. 23 on NBC’s “Meet The Press.”  President Barack Obama campaigned against Iraq and for Afghanistan, where he insists the real battlefield against terrorists exists.  As promised, Barack deescalated the Iraq War, redeploying 17,000 troops Feb. 18 to Afghanistan for summer offensive against the Taliban.

            Complicating the picture is Afghanistan’s Aug. 18 election in which U.S. ally Afghan President Hamid Karzai tries to hold on to power.  Recent press reports indicate possible widespread voter fraud, eroding U.S. public opinion, now turning against the war.  When Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom, the stated mission shifted from toppling the Taliban and pursuing al-Qaida to eradicating the opium trade.  Since up to 70% of Afghanistan is controlled by drug lords, militias and tribal leaders loyal to the Taliban, Bush’s mission was unrealistic.  Nor did drug traffickers have anything to do with Osama bin Laden and Sept. 11, leaving today’s mission in doubt.  U.S. troops and special forces have made little progress capturing or killing Bin Laden or the one-eyed Taliban chief Mullah Mohammed Omar.  While Obama supports a troop increase, there’s been no change in mission.

            Obama’s redeployment has nearly tripled U.S. death rates since March.  U.S. Afghanistan Commander Stanley McChrystal acknowledged the lack of progress and will complete his assessment sometime soon.  “Certainly the numbers are of concern,” said Mullen acknowledging the dramatic up-tick in U.S. casualties.  “We’ll see where that goes once the assessment is in here,” said Mullen.  “And I’ve had this conversation with the president, who understands that whatever the mission is, it needs to resourced correctly,” hinting at further troop deployments.  Mullen needs to get the big picture to ascertain the current mission, whether it’s indeed realistic.  Eradicating the drug trade is beyond anything the U.S. or NATO can accomplish.  Recent U.S. operations in Helmand Province against theTaliban to secure free-and-fair elections has resulted in Karzai possibly rigging the vote.

            Mullen and McChrystal envision the kind of “surge” that brought down Iraq casualties.  Attributing the drop in U.S. casualties to increased troops doesn’t take into account specific changes in troop deployment, taking them out of dangerous reconnaissance assignments in heavily fortified terrorist areas.  Increasing U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan has backfired, resulting in a dramatic increase in casualty rates.  Obama has already witnessed his approval rating, now around 52%, drop because of his national health care plan.  Adding Afghanistan into the mix would threaten to take his approval ratings down far lower.  American public opinion has swung against Barack’s health care plans and has soured on Afghanistan.  With Karzai’s possible fraudulent election, Barack faces a political minefield, pushing for an unpopular war with a corrupt U.S.-backed government.

            Vote-fraud was alleged after the June 12 Iranian election, prompting nearly two months of violent protests led by reform candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi.  Now Afghan’s former foreign minister and leading candidate Abdullah Abdullah claimed Karzai stuffed the ballot boxes.  Canadian electoral complaints commission Director Grant Kippen acknowledged 35 “high priority” allegations “material to the election results,” warranting further investigation.  “They are spreading propaganda, the people who are saying there was fraud,” said Gen. Abdul Raziq, who used his home as a polling place in the Spin Boldak district of Southern Kandahar.  Afghanistan’s disputed election presents problems going forward for the White House, hoping to sway public opinion to support the war.  U.S. special Afghan envoy Richard Holbrooke was reluctant to express reservations about the disputed election.

            Barack faces declining popularity pushing his national health care plan and escalating the Afghanistan war.  Calling the Afghan war the “right” one—as opposed to Iraq—doesn’t deal with real impediments preventing the U.S. from a positive outcome.  Unlike Iraq, the opium trade controls Kabul government as well as various warlords and militias round the country.  U.S. military officials won’t be able to pay-off sympathetic warlords, when the opium trade has far more cash.  Despite strict Islamic law, Taliban insurgents are joined at the hip—as was Bin Laden—with Afghan’s drug trade.  “The United States and the international community will respect the process set up by Afghanistan itself,” said Holbrooke, sidestepping Karazi’s election fraud problem.  If Barack isn’t careful, Afghanistan could wind up sabotaging his presidency the same way Iraq upended Bush.

 John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.