Bachmann Wins Big In Iowa's Straw Poll

by John M. Curtis
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Copyright August 15, 2011
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            Winning big in Iowa’s Straw Poll, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) gave GOP frontrunner former Massachusetts’ Gov. Mitt Romney a wakeup call that the 63-year-old former GOP presidential candidate faced the same dilemma that he faced in 2008.  Places like Iowa, rich in religious conservatives, have little affinity for Mormons.  While Paul tends to play the Christian card close to the vest, Bachmann often alludes to her Christian faith.  Like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Bachmann now commands religious conservatives, leaving little doubt that she’d remain faithful to the cause.  Now that fellow evangelical Texas 61-year-old Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced Aug. 14, Romney’s got a serious headache.  Unlike Romney’s East Coast intellectualism, Perry exudes the Southern charm

            Perry, who’s been Texas governor since former Gov. George W. Bush left office in 2000, has evolved into a real alternative to Romney—and, more importantly, to Obama.  While Bachmann offers electricity, she’s potentially too conservative to win a national election.  Republicans face the same dilemma as last time around when Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) picked ultraconservative Sarah Palin as his running mate.  Many neutral analysts believe McCain would have given Barack a real run for his money had he picked a more mainstream running mate.  No matter how much Republicans bash Obama, pandering the GOP’s right wing wins primaries but not necessarily general elections.  Disappointment over Obama’s inability to fix the sick U.S. economy has given conservatives new hope in 2012.

            Given the current GOP field, only Bachman inspires passion in primary voters.  Libertarian-leaning Ron Paul makes good sense but scares off conservatives reluctant to legalize marijuana and other illicit drugs, something advocated by Paul.  No matter how angry voters at the Federal Reserve Board, they’re not ready, like Paul, to junk the institution.  Nor are they ready to chuck the Internal Revenue Service for a flat tax or value added tax, something sought by Paul.  Candidates like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich offer logic and good ideas but nothing else.  Gingrich has so many skeletons in his closet he can’t possibly survive national scrutiny.  Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.), former Utah Gov. John Huntsman and former Fed governor Herman Cain have no national appeal.

            Seventy-six-year-old Ron Paul offers a kind of avuncular persona but may be too old to appeal to mainstream voters, leaving the 61-year-old, folksy-sounding Perry to eventually emerge as the GOP frontrunner.  Putting Paul at the top of the ticket with Bachmanan could pander to Christian evangelicals, the key voting block of former President George W. Bush.  Bush’s former chief strategist Karl Rove saw evangelicals as the key to a second term.  Few evangelicals will vote for Obama, even if he single-handedly saved the Crystal Cathedral in Garden Grove, Calif.  While evangelicals either sat it out or voted for Obama last time around, they still wish to influence the election, much the way they did in the disputed 2000 election.  Religious voters are poised this time around to help their candidate take back the White House.

          Despite Bachmann’s euphoria, the back-story of the Iowa Straw Poll was Perry’s decision to throw his hat into the ring.  Perry carries a positive coattail for evangelicals following in the Bush mold.  His Southern charm resonates with Iowa voters, disappointed by taking a chance on Obama during the ’08 election.  “We just sent a message that Obama will be a one-term president,” said Bachmann, calling her victory “a down payment on taking the country back.”  After bouncing seven percent from getting Bin Laden, Barack has been in a tailspin directly tied to stock market meltdown.  Now that the sell-off’s over, it’s wishful thinking on the part of Bachmann or any other GOP candidate to think they’ll have cakewalk to the nomination, let alone the White House.  Barack’s approval ratings are tied to the economy.

            Iowa’s Straw Poll showed that GOP Party activists crave an evangelical candidate, capable of galvanizing the Bush base.  “We just crossed a very important hurdle, but it’s the first one,” Bachman told her Christian mentor former Arkansas Gov. and now FOXNews host Mike Huckabee.  Huckabaee decided to sit this campaign out and play rainmaker to his favorite evangelical candidate.  While Bachmann won 28%, she only beat Paul by one percent, hardly a decisive victory.  Preaching to evangelicals doesn’t translate automatically into a nomination or eventual success on a national ticket.  Bachmann’s knows that Perry’s 3.6% comes without any effort, just the buzz over his candidacy.  If she’s going to carry her momentum into New Hampshire, she’ll have to show more mainstream political instincts.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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