by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 14, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

              Waving his Amercian flag watching swimming phenom Michael Phelps win his first gold medal at the Beijing Olympics, President George W. Bush returned to Washington to watch helplessly as Russia steamrolled over Georgia.  When Russian tanks rolled into Georgia Aug. 8, the country’s 40-year old President Mikhail Saakashvili begged the U.S. to intervene.  After trying to annex Russian-separatist South Ossetia with the Georgian army, Russia lashed out, rapidly deploying a massive military force across the border.  Bush watched Phelps while thousands of Georgians were crushed and thousands more displaced by Russian tanks.  Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney , Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain blasted Russia for unwarranted aggression.  U.S. officials warned Russia to pull out or face nearly certain consequences.

             Not one U.S. official—or conservative pundit—acknowledged that Saakashvili, not the Kremilin, crossed the line, blaming Russia to trying to conquer its former Soviet territory.  When French President Nicholas Sarkozy brokered a ceasefire Aug. 12, Russia had no intention of just pulling out.  “We have no idea what they’re doing there, why the movement, where they’re going,” said Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze, puzzled by Russia’s apparent refusal to get out.  “One explanation could be they’re trying to rattle the civilian population,” ignoring report that the Russian army is seeking out and destroying military hardware.  Russia is well-aware of U.S. and Israel efforts to beef up Georgia’s military.  Before Russia retreats inside its borders, it’s intent is nothing short of de-fanging the Georgian military.  Mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. can only watch.

             Russian officials—like the Iranians—are acutely aware of how the U.S. military is spread too thin to intervene anywhere else.  All the gunboat diplomacy won’t get Russia out of Georgia.  Bush must let U.S. diplomats try to comprehend the Russian perspective, not simply condemn it.  Saakashvili refuses to capitulate to Russian demands for a public apology for trying to annex separatist territories in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  Until Saakashvili publicly acknowledges aggression toward Russian provinces and apologizes, Russia will be in no hurry to leave.  More belligerent talk from Saakashvili and the White House gives Moscow added incentive to destroy the Georgian military.  So far, Saakashvili appears content to whip up more anti-Kremlin rhetoric pandering to U.S. presidential politics where talking tough to the Russians wins brownie points.

             Former Russian President, and now Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin warned the U.S. on repeated occasions about deploying missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Bush went full throttle without regard to damaging U.S.-Russian relations.  Cutting deals with Boeing and Eastern Europe on the hypothetical premise that Iran or some other rogue regime or terrorist group might fire ballistic missiles was more important than keeping Russia onboard with containing a very real Iranian nuclear threat.  Getting Russia on the U.N. Security Council to back tougher sanctions now isn’t realistic.  Saakashvili, a so-called strong U.S. ally, grossly miscalculated Moscow’s response to military aggression against South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  He gave Russia the perfect excuse to invade Georgia, de-fang the military and occupy the country for an indefinite period.

             Saakashvili’s blunder comes with a draconic price to Georgians and the West.  His incendiary rhetoric pushes the two superpowers to the brink.  “I think the world should think very carefully about what is going on here,” Saakashvili, pleading with the U.S. to intervene.  “We need to stop everything that can be stopped now,” showing, the kind of narcissim warranting his immediate removal.  Russia has already said there will be no business as usual with Saakashvili.  Putin and newly minted Russian President Dimitry Medvedev have no intention of leaving Georgia until Saakashvili steps down.  “One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree  with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Larov, rejecting a quick exit.

             White House hot air and idle threats will only embolden Russia to park themselves in Georgia indefinitely.  Russian officials won’t tolerate Saakashvili whose closeness to the U.S. has made it impossible to reconcile with Russia.  Instead threatening to boot Russia out of the G-8, the U.S. should try to understand Russia’s aversion to a U.S. puppet who attacked its separatist provinces.  With Bush moving ahead with missile defense in Eastern Europe, the Kremlin won’t feel inclined to negotiate an end to the current crisis.  "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslavakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital. Overthrow a government and get away with it.  Things have changed,” said Rice, showing vexing blindness.  If Rice’s mission is going bear any fruit, she’d better keep her cool, bring some carrots and leave the stick back in Washington.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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