by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 13, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

lirting with disaster, thousands of U.S. troops surrounded the Islamic holy city of Najaf with tanks and dropped a 500-pound bomb on a safe-house, believed to harbor Muqutada al-Sadr's Mahdi militia, the Shiite insurgents giving Iraq's fledging government fits. But truth be told, al-Sadr represents only one small thorn in the White House's side during a contentious election year. “Major operations to destroy the militia have begun,” said Maj. David Holahan, chief officer of the 1st Battalion, 4th Marine Regimen, engaged in wishful thinking in a war controlled more by politics than military necessity. For over a year, the U.S. military has been locked in deadly guerrilla war, causing mounting casualties and dashing the administration's plans for a friendly government. Like Afghanistan, the U.S. faces unending tribal warfare, with Iraq's Shiite majority hijacking fantasies of a multiethnic society.

      Though different than Afghanistan—where warlords control the world's biggest opium trade and the country—the White House faces an uphill battle reconciling Shiites, Sunnis, ethnic Kurds, and miscellaneous Arabs. Like Afghanistan, controlling only Baghdad won't create the kind of national harmony needed to reconcile competing interests of Iraq's ethnic minorities. Only Saddam Hussein's Baathist dictatorship had the stomach—and force—to hold the country together. It was the same story for the Islamo-fascist Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Before modern-day Iraq was carved out of the Ottoman Empire after World War II, the Ottoman Turks ruled the Middle East with an iron fist, brutalizing local inhabitants. Rolling the dice less than three months before presidential elections carries dangerous risks to President George W. Bush, locked in a nip-and-tuck reelection battle.

      Moving on Najaf risks inflaming Iraq's Shiite population, whose loyalty lies with Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Najaf's Iman Ali Mosque is considered Shiite's holiest shrine, a virtual Mecca to Shiite Muslims. Khamenei tastes the growing possibility of the vast Persian Empire that once controlled Iraq, should Iraq cleave along ethnic lines. For Iraq's Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, nothing would make them happier than splitting the country along ethnic lines. Both Kurds in the North and Shiites in South would love to control Iraq's mineral wealth. Only Saddam's Sunnis in Iraq's center dread a Shiite-Kurdish takeover. Unlike Saddam, the U.S. attempts the improbable feat of applying coveted U.S. values contained in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution and Bill of Rights. Iraq's minorities are not transplanted Europeans seeking religious freedom and a better way of life.

      Iraq's newly minted Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, hangs by a thread, only one bullet away from anarchy. Since taking office June 28, he's been placating grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who recently left Najaf for urgent medical treatment in England. Though he expressed “deep sorrow and great worry,” Sistani takes his cues from Iran's radical leader, hell-bent on sabotaging U.S. efforts, annexing Iraq's Shiite lands and, yes, building its first atomic bomb. Iran currently supports and arms radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose whereabouts and medical condition remain unknown. Bush finds himself juggling too many balls, especially heading into November. With global oil prices hitting new highs, the U.S. stock market melting down, mounting U.S. casualties and his administration trying to contain a growing Iranian nuclear threat, launching an all-out assault on Najaf seems unrealistic.

      Iraq's Prime Minister Allawi plays both sides against the middle, pretending to support U.S. policy, while, at the same time, paying lip-service to al-Sistani and al-Sadr. “These places have never been exposed to such violations in the past,” said Allawi, ambiguously playing to both the U.S. and radical cleric al-Sadr. Allawi reveals the central flaw in Bush's policy on Iraq, namely, that both Shiites and Sunnis want U.S. forces out. Only the Kurds want the U.S. to finally stand up to the Turks, cede control of Iraq's oil wealth in Kirkuk and eventually grant sovereignty. As long as Iran's radical Shiite regime supplies arms to Iraq's insurgents, supports Al Qaeda and seeks nuclear weapons, the U.S. finds itself in quicksand. Regardless of presidential elections, Bush faces stiff resistance to the kind of brutality needed to win the peace in Iraq—including squaring off with Iran.

      World financial markets mirror the mess in Iraq, symbolizing the no-win situation creating jitters in today's oil markets. Whoever wins in November, they can't ignore the linkage between instability in the Persian Gulf and global economic problems. Wiping out Muqtada al-Sadr only radicalizes Iraq's Shiite population, already getting logistical and material support from Iran. Wasting more resources in Iraq, the U.S. military finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place: Handcuffed by politics, a lack of domestic support and growing pessimism about the mission. “This is a conspiracy against the Iraqi people, targeting all of Iraq,” said Interior Minister Fallah-Hassan al-Naqib, underscoring his country's paranoia and hatred of U.S. occupation. No matter what the consequences, without Iraqi support the U.S. has no business sacrificing more blood and money.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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