by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 12, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

hen U.S. Sen. Barack Obama announced he would consider military strikes against terrorists in the tribal lands near the Pakistan-Afghan border, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, U.S. Sen. and Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) condemned Obama as provocative and inexperienced. One week later, Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai promised to pursue terrorists, especially the Taliban, believed destabilizing the region. Both promised to do what Obama recommended: Use military force to root-out terrorists and subversives. Hillary and GOP candidates blasted Obama for not considering the global consequences of fighting terrorists with military force, including causing an Islamic coup in Pakistan that could turn the nation's nuclear arsenal over to Islamic extremists. Neither Karzai nor Musharraf are legimately elected heads-of-state.

      Musharraf came to power Oct. 12, 1999 in a bloodless coup, ejecting Pakistan's Prime Minister Nowaz Sharif, eventually appointing himself president June 20, 2001. Since Sept. 11, President George W. Bush viewed Musaharraf as a partner in the war on terror, despite ceding territory in the border region to warlords, tribesmen and terrorists. Though Musharraf has survived several assassination attempts since 1999, Pakistan's military remains in control of the government and the nuclear arsenal—a worry of Western powers. There's little chance Islamic radicals could launch a successful coup, the main concern of Clinton and the GOP when attacking Obama for suggesting the possible use of force. Pakistan's ISI [Inter-Services intelligence] already supplies U.S. Special Forces with information about Islamic radicals, including Osama bin Laden and remnants of the Taliban.

      Meeting in Kabul Aug. 12, both Karzai and Musharrf pledged new efforts to deal with terrorists, especially remnants from Bin Laden and the Taliban, rumored to be in the tribal lands near the border, causing problems for the current Afghan government. Both Karzai and Musharraf play a good public relations game, placating the White House, while, at the same time, pandering to warlords, tribesmen and, especially, poppy growers, now responsible for 95% of the world's heroin trade. Karzai comes from a rich Pashtun family from Kandahar with close ties to poppy growers, including his younger brother Amed Wali Karzai, rumored involved in the drug trade. Karzai opposed U.S. efforts in 2002 to defoliate poppy fields. His political base stems from poppy growers from whom his government collects untold millions in taxes, stifling Karzai's commitment to the drug war.

      Like Karzai, Musharrf has a firm but illegitimate mandate, forcing him to make deals with warlords, tribesmen and terrorists. Unlike Karzai, Musharraf controls most of Pakistan, not just a small perimeter around Kabul. Though he claims to have held elections in 2004, there was little recognition given to alternative candidates, making him a shoe-in. To keep his grip on power, Musharraf agreed to let warlords, tribesmen and terrorists run amok. Bin Laden's mujahedeen and Taliban leftovers rearm and plot attacks inside Afghanistan and Iraq. Attending a peace conference or “jirga” in Kabul with 650 delegates from both countries, Musharraf pledged to try to bring peace to Afghanistan, currently under siege by the Taliban, whose government was toppled by U.S. forces two months after Sept. 11. Karzai knows it's a matter of time before the Taliban manages to assassinate him.

      Obama told the truth identifying Pakistan, together with Iran, as the No. 1 sponsor of worldwide terrorism. While the White House calls Iraq “the central front in the war on terror,” they know that Pakistan's ungoverned tribal lands harbors the world's most dangerous terrorists. Cutting deals with warlords to allow him to maintain his iron grip on Pakistan, Musharraf has given America's worst enemies a safe-haven. Slamming Obama for having the guts to call for a new strategy, including U.S. military options in Pakistan, is pure politics, where the GOP hopes to help Hillary win the Democratic nomination. While she holds a commanding lead over Obama in recent polls, she also has the highest unfavorability ratings of any major candidate. Republicans believe they have the best shot of retaining the White House in 2008 running against Hillary, not the charismatic Obama.

      Musharraf and Karzai share the common ground of having little popular support in their own countries. Both are perceived as U.S. sympathizers, putting them one bullet away from losing power. No local peace conference or “jirga” is likely to produce results without a commitment to seeing U.S. forces out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Since that's not going to happen anytime soon, Musharrf and Karzai will continue pandering to local warlords, tribesmen and remnants of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. “There is no doubt Afghan militants are supported from Pakistan. The problem that you have in your region is because support is provided from our side,” Musharraf told conference delegates, admitting Pakistan's role in Afghanistan's unrest. While it's self-serving for Hillary and the GOP to bash Obama, the U.S. can't bury its head and ignore Bin Laden and the Taliban forever.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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