by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 9, 2002
All Rights Reserved.

racking under relentless pressure, 65-year-old Iraqi President Saddam Hussein lashed out in a nationwide address, condemning unnamed Western aggressors threatening his regime. Calling for a "regime change," the Bush White House stepped up its rhetoric—and "psyops" strategy—leaking plans about a possible U.S.-led invasion, though not specifying dates or specifics. Commemorating the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, "The forces of evil will carry their coffins on their backs, to die in disgraceful failure . . ." warned Saddam, informing the West that he awaits "the mother of all battles." Since the 1991Gulf War, the U.S. isn't quaking over a possible sequel. Feeling the heat, Saddam knows he's running out of time, especially after booting out U.N. weapons inspectors in 1998. Recent overtures to return U.N. weapons prompted skepticism from U.S. officials. "We're not interested in inspections," said cool-headed Sec. of State Colin A. Powell, "we're interested in disarmament," signaling that the U.S. means business about de-fanging Saddam .

      Turning up the heat, two strategically leaked news reports give Saddam reason to sweat. One involves his attempt to buy sophisticated stainless steel tubing used in the production of weapons grade uranium. The other raises new concerns about the possible Iraqi connection to Sept. 11. Saddam knows that the Bush-43 won't sit idly by while he builds an A-bomb. He also knows that any—even the remotest—connection to Osama bin Laden will bring U.S. tanks to Baghdad. When Sen. Joseph R. Biden (D-Del.), the dovish chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, pounds the tom-toms, Saddam gets nervous. He expects saber-rattling at the White House but not from liberal members of congress. Approaching the anniversary of 9/11, it's unfathomable to see madmen like Saddam Hussein or Osama bin Laden get nuclear weapons. Two years ago, the Pentagon estimated that Saddam could have a Hiroshima-sized bomb by 2006—German intelligence predicts by 2005. Time is running out.

      Saddam's speech whips up Muslim hatred toward the U.S, exploiting the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to divert attention away from his weapons of mass destruction. Learning from Bin Laden, until he dropped off the map, Saddam ratchets up the war rhetoric, preparing Iraqis for the next attack. Already savaged by economic failure, Saddam shifts the blame to the U.S. for imposing punitive sanctions, imposing unconscionable hardship on the Iraqi people. In reality, Saddam's megalomania and profligacy plunder Iraq's resources to adequately care for its population. Whipping up blinding nationalism, escalating the war chatter and maintaining his brutal secret police enables Saddam to maintain a stranglehold on his opposition. No credible report inside or outside Iraq believes that opposition groups have a prayer without U.S. military help. Like Bin Laden, Saddam knows how to exploit Arab sensitivities, including the Saudi's public refusal to cooperate with U.S. plans.

      Changing the debate, Powell was right on target talking about disarmament, not weapons inspections. Though Saddam's military has degraded since the Gulf War, credible intelligence indicates his weapons programs have moved forward. Sept. 11 changed the margin of safety for U.S. national security. It's not reassuring to hear former U.N. weapons inspector, Richard Butler, speculate about Saddam's potential use of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. Though paying lip service to inspections, Saddam is trying to buy time before the White House gives the green light to de-fang the beast. Since 9/11, the U.S. can't count exclusively on intelligence and law enforcement agencies for national security. Nor can the U.S. really count on a global consensus to guide national security. Identifying threats only makes sense. But the CIA and FBI can't prevent hostile regimes from implementing subversive plans. If needed, the U.S. must act unilaterally in its own defense—including the "regime change" planned in Iraq.

       With Saddam in command, no international inspectors can expect to root out weapons of mass destruction. Proven as dangerous outlaws, psychopathic killers like Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden won't be charmed out of their ways. Only decisive military action can reduce the threat. There was no U.N. mandate in 1991 to evict Saddam, and there's little international support today for protecting U.S. national security. Arab countries—and even our European friends—don't have the same ax to grind. Buckingham Palace, the Palace of Versailles or the Deutsche Bundestag weren't decimated by Islamic terrorists on Sept. 11. Europeans also don't have a strategic ally in the region fighting a new battle for its survival. Only the U.S. can gage its own national security and pick its battles. With Saddam getting closer to an A-bomb, it's not up to the U.N. to decide what's best for U.S. national security

      Showing signs of cracking, U.S. "psyops" are beginning to make a dent in Saddam Hussein. While his propaganda machine still has him winning "the mother of all battles," Gulf War II won't be so kind. Anticipating a U.S. attack, Saddam will no doubt use his civilian population as human shields. Strategists now see him deploying his Republican Guard in densely populated urban centers around his nearly 400 presidential palaces. Calling for jihad against the West, humiliating failure "is the inevitable outcome awaiting all those who try to aggress against Arabs and Muslims," said Saddam, sounding more and more like Osama bin Laden. Saddam's right that the U.S. has a hard time with "collateral damage," including bombing civilian populations. But whatever it takes, Saddam must go. Unlike 1991, U.N. mandates won't stop the U.S. from finishing the job. With Saddam trying to build nuclear bombs and Iran developing long-range ballistic missiles, time is no longer on our side.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's a consultant and expert in strategic communication. He's author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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