by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 7, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

eading to Honolulu for a well-deserved vacation, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) will be kept busy agonizing over whom to pick for his VP. His brain-trust, chief consultant David Axelrod, campaign manager David Plouffe and communication director Robert Gibbs, will also burn the midnight oil figuring out who, among an elite group of VP picks, gives the ticket the best chances of winning in November. Unlike years past, an Aug 6 CBS News polls indicated that at least 30% of voters view the VP pick as crucial to their Election Day decision, more than double than when Bush v. Gore in 2000. Many names have been tossed around but the same principle remains intact: Barack must pick a proven leader with solid foreign policy and military affairs experience. Barack oozes raw leadership talent but lacks the background in national security needed in a post-Sept. 11 world.

      Since his electrifying speech July 27, 2004 in Boston's Fleet Center at the Democratic National Convention, Obama was regarding as a rising star in the Democratic Party. Other upcoming stars like former New York Gov. Gov. Eliot Spitzer flamed out in scandal. Barack won his Illinois senate seat by a hefty margin and rocketed to the 2008 Democratic nomination beating the odds-on favorite and one-time front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). His '04 speech promising to end the red-state-blue-state partisan divide resonated with voters in both parties. He reminded Democrats and Republicans that the country's business can't go forward locked in partisan gridlock. He promised a new brand of politics, jettisoning the partisan backlog that has divided the country and paralyzed the national agenda. His VP pick, above all else, must further that promise.

      Much has been said about Barack picking Hillary. While Hillary no doubt brings a highly qualified candidate, she's a lightening rod for partisanship. Battling for the nomination, she won 18 million votes, many women and seniors believing she was the most qualified candidate. Ruling her out raises intense conflict inside team-Obama because they know her loyal following. She commands more loyalty and zealotry than other candidates. What she also carries is what Barack must avoid to be an effective president: A combative, partisan history, with no love of Republicans and contempt for the right wing. Her husband's—former President Bill Clinton—continued rumored dalliances pose problems for the Obamas in terms of getting Washington back on track. As Barack frequently says, Hillary remains on “everyone's short-list” but hefty hurdles remain.

      When Barack's campaign floated Virgina Gov. Tim Kaine on the short-list Aug. 6, the mild-mannered 50-year-old raised all sorts of objections. Because Hillary ran such a tough campaign and because of her experience and qualifications, Barack is forced to pick someone of at least her caliber. While there's nothing wrong with Kaine, he lacks the foreign policy and military affairs experience needed to compensate for Barack's deficits. Less objections were raised June 7 by former Navy Secretary Sen. Jim Webb (D-Vir.) when the campaign floated his name. Webb took his name off the list July 8, despite his strong credentials. When Barack went to the Middle East in late June, he traveled with Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), both also considered on the short-list, though the campaign deliberately underplayed the intent or significance of either.

      Former Vice President Al Gore is sometimes mentioned on the short-list, despite the absurdity of returning to the same job. Former presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards gets some mention, despite tabloid reports that he sired a lovechild with Beverly Hills socialite Rielle Hunter. Other names on Barack's short-list have included Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and former Indiana Gov. Evan Bayh, both again lacking national security experience. While events, especially the economy, Iraq War and high gas prices, favor Barack heading into November, his bid for the White House is without precedent. Because national polls remain tight, Barack must assume a dogfight, requiring impeccable decisions, especially his VP pick. Sebelius and Bayh have thin national security credentials, opening the door to McCain's key attack that Barack isn't ready for primetime.

      With the Beijing Olympics giving Barack a reprieve, he must fish-or-cut-bait on his VP pick when he returns next week from the islands. When you consider that Hillary and Hagel have been downplayed for weeks, it increases their stock coming down the stretch. Obama can't pick any less qualified candidate without alienating hardcore Hillary supporters, still not onboard with his candidacy. While Barack and Hillary have been dubbed the “dream team,” there remain serious reservations about how to handle her husband's ongoing shenanigans, including his business dealings with Mideast oil billionaires. Few people have given Hagel much of a shot to wind up on the ticket. Yet no one in either party showed more courage and self-sacrifice opposing the Iraq War and taking on the White House. If Barack's team remains true to form, look for a blockbuster pick when Barack returns from paradise.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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