Tea Party's Growing Chokehold on the GOP

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 5, 2011
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             Moderate Republicans have gone the way of the dinosaurs in recent years with the most conservative wing of the Party known as the “Tea Party” asserting control.  What was once a conservative grassroots movement has become the mainstream Republican Party, driving moderates and independents out of the GOP tent.  In recent negotiations on the debt ceiling, Tea Party loyalists, like Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), were ready to default the U.S. government rather than compromise with Democrats.  Were it not for the common sense of House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kt.), Cantor and his Tea Party friends might have sent the economy spiraling into double-dip recession.  While President Barack Obama signed the debt deal Aug. 2, the economy’s been in a tailspin, watching the Dow Jones Industrials plummet over a thousand points.

            Tea Party zealots like Cantor refused to budge on allowing Obama to raise taxes on the wealthiest taxpayers, instead forcing massive budget cuts affecting most vulnerable citizens dependent on government help.  With the Aug. 2 default date rapidly approaching, Tea Party’s 11th-hour tactics with Boehner forced him to add an untenable balanced budget amendment in the House bill.  Recent public opinion polls show sinking national support for the Tea Party after a reckless game of chicken with the White House.  More concerned about damaging Obama’s chances in 2012, the Tea Part was willing to trash the U.S. economy.  They believe a sinking economy helps their chances and hurts Obama heading into the 2012 election.  Some political analysts believe the Tea Party is “driving the conversation,” said political analyst Danny Diaz, noting growing clout inside the Republican Party.

             As long as the economy remains weak and deficits high, the Tea Party has the public’s attention.  “The president, Congress, Democrats, Republicans are all talking about austerity, restraint and the spending crisis.  That’s not going to change,” said Diaz, seeing growing Tea Party clout in bad economic times.  While the Tea Party didn’t exist in 2008, former GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) picked ultraconservative Tea Party favorite former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.  Most honest analyses credit Palin’s pick with McCain’s disastrous showing at the polls, losing to Obama by 9%.  More than any other GOP candidate, including Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Palin articulates the Reagan-like anti-big government message that resonates with the Tea Party.  While times have changed since 2008, it remains unclear whether a Tea Party candidate can win a national election.

            When Tea Party U.S. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell lost her bid last year in Maryland, it signaled that upstart conservatives don’t make it everywhere.  “If you are seeking office in this environment,” said Diaz, “it would behoove you to discuss the out-of-control government spending that’s taking place in Washington,” mapping out the Tea Party talking points.  If the economy turns positive and tax receipts improve, the Tea Party’s message will fall of deaf ears.  Austerity only goes so far with voters, especially when they stand to have their government largess slashed.  Presidential candidate former Massachusetts’ Gov. Mitt Romney went out on a limb rejecting the bipartisan debt deal to pander to the Tea Party.  Romney appears so desperate for Tea Party support that he’s willing to sacrifice his principles, what most voters saw as a strong legacy of moderate GOP activism.

            While Palin was not formally attached to the budding Tea Party in 2008, her ultraconservative views scared off most centrists and independents considering the McCain ticket.  Tea Party candidates could easily do the same in 2012.  What plays well in certain regional pockets, doesn’t translate ultra-conservative activism on a national stage.  Tea Party influence “will come with heavy baggage in independent-leaning states like Maine or even Indiana,” said Nate Daschle, son of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-Neb.).  Independent-minded voters prefer “progress over ideology,” said Daschle, especially in national elections.  Running Tea Party candidates against incumbents in Utah, New Mexico and Virginia could backfire on the GOP, making the Party look too conservative.  Tea Party ranting about excess government spending only plays well to the conservative choir.

            Tea Party candidates, whether national, statewide or regional, face daunting challenges heading into the 2012 elections.  A recent CBS News/New York Times poll shows that Tea Party approval ratings have dropped from 59% to 41% among registered Republicans.  After the November 2010 election, some 31% supported the Tea Party.  Today that number stands at 18%, a 13% drop.  Recent debt-ceilings negotiations showed that the Tea Party was willing to send the U.S. government into default to prove a point about excess government spending.  Voters saw firsthand how responsible Republicans salvaged the debt deal against fanatical Tea Party loyalists.  “I’m not sure the GOP is going to march in lockstep with the Tea Party,” said Virginia Tech University political scientist Tom Nokken.  As the GOP presidential primaries unfold, the internecine battle against the Tea Party could heat up.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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