by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 3, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

xpecting Iran give up uranium enrichment, the U.N. and European Union got an emphatic “no” from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Under White House pressure, Ahmadinejad held firm that Iran has a right to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Tehran forcefully denied the West's charges that it's trying to build an A-bomb. A Dec.3, 2007 National Intelligence Estimate report indicated that Iran gave up its nuclear weapons' program in 2002. Congress ordered the report of 15 spy agencies to mitigate another false pretext for going to war. Despite this sobering assessment, GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain insisted Tehran remains a “gathering” threat. “Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran . . .” McCain sung April 20, 2007 to the Beach Boy's tune “Barbara Ann,” joking about his intent to take possible military action against Tehran.

      Rejecting the EU and U.N. deadline, Ahmadinejad said Iran will not give up “a single iota of its nuclear rights,” pouring cold water on U.S. plans to win concessions. While Ahmaidinejad said he's committed to diplomacy and negotiations, he's also ruled out compromising on Iran's right to enrich uranium. Under U.S. pressure, the Security Council gave Iran a two-week deadline July 19. Ahmadinejad won't give in to U.S. pressure, believing the “bullying powers” won't prevail in their attempt to force Iran to stop enriching uranium. Despite National Intelligence Estimate, the White House insists Tehran has “evil” intentions, trying to build its first A-bomb. EU and U.N. powers have no proof that Ahmaadinejad seeks to build nuclear weapons but hit Tehran with two sets of sanctions Oct. 25, 2007 and March 3. Not cowed by U.S. pressure, Ahmadinejad called the U.S. bluff.

      McCain's April 20, 2007 “joke” about bombing Iran together with Israel's June 20 military exercises, flying numerous jets to Cyprus in an apparent dry-run for a bombing mission, ratcheted up global tensions, driving up the price of oil. Threatening to pour on more sanctions doesn't put Ahmadinejad in a bargaining mood. Ahmadinejad received support from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, echoing Tehran's rights to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. “In whichever negotiation we take part . . .It's unequivocally within the view to the realization of Iran's nuclear right and the Iranian nation would not retreat one iota from its rights,” Ahmadinejad responded to the U.N.'s deadline. Two weeks ago, al-Assad assured French President Nicholas Sarkokzy that he'd try, when visiting Ahmandinejad in Tehran, to convey Europe's concerns about Iran's enrichment program.

      U.N. Security Council remains divided, with Russia and China dissenting, about whether to apply more sanctions on Iran. Russia and China oppose Security Council sanctions against Tehran. “We have told European countries that . . . every country, including Iran, has the right to engage in uranium enrichment and to process nuclear power stations based on agreements,” said al-Assad, rejecting the U.N.'s attempt to stop Iran from enriching uranium. Applying more sanctions opens the possibility of military action down the road. Economic sanctions can only go so far in discouraging Tehran from continuing to enrich uranium. At some point, the U.N. will issue a resolution and authorize member states to apply force to bring about compliances. With oil prices soaring and the U.S. teetering on recession, the U.S. can ill-afford another military adventure.

      White House policy on Iran can't be driven by Israeli paranoia of what Ahmadinejad would do with a nuclear device. India voiced the same warnings when Paksitan was busy developing it's A-bomb. Chances are nuclear weapons would sober Iran up into what they stand to lose with a first-strike capability. While no one wants Tehran to get the bomb, it's not worth going to war over conjecture about Iranian intentions. Iran could very well in the not-so-distant future possess an A-bomb and be forced into deterrence by other nuclear powers, like Pakistan. Short of bombing Iran's nuclear sites, there's no way to force Ahmadinejad into making concessions on uranium enrichment. A 2007 National Security Estimate indicated that Iran is not currently a nuclear treat. Whether President George W. Bush admits it or not, it's probably too late to stop Tehran.

      Iran has no intention of backing down on his uranium enrichment program. No amount of pressure from the U.S. or elsewhere will do anything but make Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad dig in their heels. While the U.S. has the U.K., France and Germany going along with sanctions, Russia and China are strongly opposed. They would veto any resolution attempting to give a Security Council member the right to use force. As long as there's no proof and Tehran emphatically denies building an A-bomb, military action would be out of the question. If there's any lesson from Iraq, the U.S. can't afford to take unilateral preemptive action without solid intelligence. Bombing Iran would open up a far bigger can of worms with a more sophisticated and determined enemy. Neither the U.S nor the world can take another economic blow without serious consequences.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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