by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright August 1, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

acing stiff headwinds and behind in the polls, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) launched a new attack ad comparing Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. A twist on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) message that the junior senator from Illinois was all smoke, McCain's new ad paints Barack as a rock star, not a real leader. Obama has become a victim of his own success, having mesmerized European and Mideast leaders on his 9-day overseas trip. When Barack received a significant bump in the polls, the McCain campaign began to panic. With less than a month before the Democratic National Convention in Denver, McCain's operatives fear another, potentially lethal bump in the polls. One more good showing could put the 2008 race out of reach. With the Electoral College map showing Barack with a decisive lead, McCain must make up ground.

      Comparing Barack to Paris and Britney tries to play-up on the GOP message that the 46-year-old Harvard Law graduate and former law professor lacks substance. Much has been made of Barack's 4-year elementary school education in Jakarta, Indonesia, almost nothing mentioned about his degree from Columbia University and Harvard Law. When Hillary realized she was being badly out-dueled in the speechmaking arena, she attacked Barack's lack of substance. McCain faces the same problem, stumbling over teleprompters and mangling prepared speeches while Barack brings screaming crowds to their feet. Describing Barack as “the biggest celebrity in the world,” McCain forgets the extreme popularity of the late John F. Kennedy, who frequently wowed crowds domestically and overseas with brilliant oratory. McCain seeks, like Hillary, to sell Barack as a razzle-dazzle huckster.

      McCain's campaign is running out of time to make a serious dent in Barack's credibility. Before the convention they must make an all-out assault on Barack's patriotism, experience and trustworthiness. So far the attacks haven't gained traction. Most national polls show Obama with a 5-9% lead, spelling trouble for McCain in key battleground states including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Even in GOP-rich Texas, McCain leads by only 9%. Attack-ads, no matter how outrageous, attempt to induce doubt in voters' minds. “I was puzzled by this notion that somehow what we were doing was in any way different from what Sen. McCain or a lot of presidential candidates have done in the past,” Barack told minority journalists in Chicago, not addressing GOP attack-ads, painting him as superficial. There's no highroad when it comes reacting to attack-ads.

      Staying on the offensive allows McCain to dictate the rhythm and content of the campaign. Whether Barack likes it or not, he can't stand idly by without punching back. He was far more aggressive responding during the primaries to the howitzer-type attacks coming from the Hillary campaign. Former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) found out the hard way what happens when you don't forcefully push-back from negative ads. He was too passive responding to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's vicious attacks on his military service. McCain has plenty of skeletons in the closet receiving illicit campaign money from convicted felon Charles Keating Jr. in the 1989 Lincoln Savings failure. Failing to respond forcefully to GOP attack-ads risks letting his opponent define the campaign and image. Painting Barack as a cosmetic teenie bopper damages his credibility.

      McCain's “Celeb” ad paints Barack as lacking subtance. “Do the American pople want to elect the world's biggest celebrity, or do they want to elect an American hero?” asked McCain spokesman Steve Schmidt. McCain's campaign hopes to tap into lingering doubts about Barack's short track record on the national stage. His relatively brief Washington resumé both helps and hurts his credibility. With House and Senate approval ratings below President George W. Bush, it's not considered unwise to run as a Washington outsider. Picking a seasoned Washington politician as a running mate carries certain risks for both Obama and McCain. On the other hand, picking an unknown quantity also raises fears, especially for Barack, whose compressed tenure invites questions about his preparedness for president. McCain's long track record raises less doubts.

      Negative campaigning is the shortest distance to make up ground in the polls. If responded to effectively, it can easily backfire. “I do notice that he doesn't seem to have anything to say very positive about himself,” Barack said, responding artfully to the GOP's latest attack ad. McCain's team fears heading into the much-anticipated Demoncratic convention behind in the polls. Like Barack's well-choreographed overseas trip, the convention promises to far exceed the media frenzy. If he gets another bounce after the convention, it could put McCain hopelessly behind. Between now and the convention, Barack must pick the right VP to counter McCain's charges that the ticket lacks national security and military experience to take the reins in a post-9/11 world. Keeping focused on economy, ending the Iraq War and spiraling oil prices should keep McCain off balance.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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