by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 24, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

raqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki told British Prime Minister Tony Blair in advance of his meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush that his country wouldn't slide into civil war. Since the June 8 death of Iraq's Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, the bloody insurgency has continued, adding about 100 civilian deaths a day. Maliki knows the sacrifices made by U.S. and British troops create a narrowing window to sustain foreign intervention. Blair has paid a heavy political price because of Iraq and will probably retire next year. Bush still has two-and-a-half years to invest American blood and treasure in Iraq. Maliki plans on discussing the unthinkable with Bush: Increasing U.S. forces, something that won't be considered until after the midyear elections. Bush received a welcomed reprieve from Iraq with the new Lebanon crisis, buying the White House more time.

      No one could possibly imagine that Hezbollah did the White House a favor starting a border war with Israel, drawing attention away from the disaster in Iraq. Maliki's partially right saying that his country hasn't descended into civil war, preferring to call the daily carnage “sectarian violence.” In reality, Iraq's disparate ethnic groups have always been at war, until Saddam Hussein used brute force to suppress sectarian strife. “There is a sectarian issue, but the political leaders . . . are working on putting an end to the sectarian issue,” Maliki told BBC radio, adding, “Civil war will not happen in Iraq.” U.N. data indicates an average of 100 civilians were killed in May and June, escalating after Zarqawi's death. Whether it's “sectarian strife” or “civil war” doesn't deny that violence and anarchy have spiraled out of control, leaving only Baghdad's fortified green zone safe.

      Creating other “green zones” or fortified encampments doesn't solve the problem of managing insurgents united in one goal of toppling Maliki's government and driving foreign forces out of Iraq. Adding more troops will only add to the financial and human costs of sustaining the Iraq war. With Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice making the first rounds of shuttle diplomacy, the White House has more time before the spotlight shifts back to Iraq. Maliki's Downing Street and White House trips couldn't come a worst time for Bush, whose sagging approval ratings have bounced since hostilities broke out in Lebanon. Bush's chief strategist Karl Rove, recently off-the-hook in the Valerie Plame affair, knows that Lebanon represents the perfect smokescreen for Iraq. Bush has promised a methodical handover to Iraqi forces, looking more and more like a remote fantasy.

      Maliki keeps talking about building up Iraqi forces, yet has failed to contain the bloody insurgency. His June 14 crackdown in Baghdad deploying thousands of U.S and Iraqi security forces didn't slow the rising death toll. “It is definitely not decades, not even years,” said Maliki, responding to questions when Iraqi security could stand on its own. Maliki keeps making the same excuses why his security services are unable to stop the waves of violence sweeping Iraq. He mentioned nothing about the disloyalty of his forces whom have more sympathy with insurgents than Iraq's U.S.-backed government. “We have reached an agreement in the government that we will have to confront them [the militias] and deal with them,” Maliki told the British press, making more excuses why his government can't control Iraq's insurgency, now threatening to topple his regime.

      U.S. forces are now clashing with radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr's 10,000-plus-strong Al-Mehdi army, operating as a “death squad” against Sunni and U.S. targets. Sunnis recently boycotted a meeting of a Reconciliation Commission, that Maliki called the “last chance” for peace. When U.S. troops let Al-Sadr and his Al-Mehdi militia escape Fallouja in April 26, 2004 at the request of Iraq's Supreme Shiite Cleric Ali Sistani, they wrote their own obituary. Hundreds of U.S. troops and thousands of Iraq civilians have lost lives because of Al-Sadr. Like Iranian and Syrian-backed Hezbollah, Al-Sadr operates an unofficial radical Shiite state inside Iraq, sponsoring much of the current anarchy. Just as Lebanon must either embrace Hezbollah and suffer the consequences or denounce the terrorist group and fight for its sovereignty, Maliki must do the same with Al-Sadr.

      When Maliki meets Bush, he must do more than make empty promises about building his military and taking control of Iraq. Allowing Al-Sadr to runamok exacerbates today's insurgency that claims growing number of U.S. and Iraqi lives. Adding more U.S. troops won't change the inescapable fact that Maliki's forces hold more sympathy for insurgents than the U.S.-backed government. If Maliki has any chance of surviving, he must go after Al-Sadr and drive his Al-Mehdi army into oblivion. Maliki's recent remarks against Israel raise questions about his loyalty—and sincerity. Lebanon's Prime Minister Foud Siniora can't play both sides of the fence, claiming he wants sovereignty while simultaneously supporting Hezbollah. Maliki must get off the fence and go after Al-Sadr if there's any chance of pulling Iraq from the abyss. Asking for more troops belies the whole mess.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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