by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 18, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

ezbollah's leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah got more than he bargained for abducting two Israeli soldiers July 12. Not only did he plunge the region into war, he turned Lebanon's clock back 20 years when Phalangist Chritians battled Muslims for control of Beirut, leaving the popular French-influenced Mediterranean vacation spot in ruins. “They will only return home through indirect negotiations and an exchange of prisoners,” said Nasrallah, insisting he meant no harm for the abductions. Nasrallah's militia occupies southern Lebanon, serving as a defacto security force, holding 12 seats in the Lebanese parliament. While Lebanese President Foud Seniora threatens to deploy the Lebanese army to the southern border, the truth is his government cedes control to Nasrallah's “Party of God.” If Seniora steps out of line, he'll wind up in the same place as assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

      When Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Jacques Chirac called Israel's response “disproportionate” at the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, they couldn't fathom Israel's F-16 bombardment. They couldn't grasp how Israel'assault on Lebanon would result in returning the two abducted prisoners. Putin questioned Israel's motives, believing that the latest military adventure had ulterior motives. President George W. Bush gave Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert the green light to degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure. Putin and Chirac saw the bigger picture, taking Nasrallah at his word that he sought a prisoner swap with Israel. Nasrallah has some relatives and close personal friends sitting in Israeli jails. “The Israelis always first say they do not wish to negotiate, but eventually they accept,” said Nasrallah, exposing the simple but true motives behind Hezbollah's gambit.

      Popular Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri found out the hard way what happens when you side with the West and insist Syria leave Lebanon. Felled by a car bomb Feb. 12, 2005, Hariri tried to steer Lebanon to independence, refusing to accept, like Bin Laden's Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, that Iran and Syria, through Hezbollah, controlled southern Lebanon. Nazrallah said he was observing “self-restraint . . .as we do not want an escalation and we do not want to take Lebanon and the region to war,” exposing his naïve understanding of how to liberate some 10,000 Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners locked up in Israeli jails. As Israel's operation hits its eighth day, it's becoming obvious that modern-day Mideast wars don't spread to other countries. There's much blustery rhetoric coming from Tehran and Damascus but no other Mideast country wants Lebanon's fate.

      Putin questioned Israel's bombing campaign, finding it hard to believe Olmert only sought to return the two soldiers. When Hezbollah took unilateral action, it gave Israel the perfect excuse to deal with an old nemesis. It also gave President George W. Bush, who also supports Israel's right of self-defense, a chance to deal with the likely culprit responsible for the 1983 Beirut bombings of the U.S. embassy and Marine Corps barracks. Israel's latest military adventure also gives Olmert a golden opportunity to test his battle legs. While foreign countries, including the U.S., attempt to evacuate its citizens, Israeli officials have signaled the operation is likely to take weeks. Hezbollah continues to spray Israel with Katyusha rockets, keeping the tit-for-tat nature of the current episode. As the mission wears on, it's become clear that other Arab states want no part of Hezbollah's problems.

      Lebanon's current government must come to grip with their complicity with Hezbollah. Whatever the risks, Seniora must work with the U.N. to purge southern Lebanon of Hezbollah. Moderate Mideast governments, while having no love for Israel, aren't comfortable with Iran's incursion into Arab affairs. Hezbollah's trouble-making diverted attention away from Tehran's nuclear ambitions, a topic the St. Petersburg G-8 summit was supposed to address. So far, Tehran has shown no interest in suspending its uranium enrichment program, continuing the confrontation with the U.N. Security Council. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his loudmouth puppet President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continue to stir the pot while Lebanon suffers. Responsible Mideast governments are beginning to see the toxic role Iran plays keeping the Arab world in chaos.

      No one wants the crisis to end more than Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah whose southern Lebanon fiefdom is threatened by U.N. intervention. “Unless there's some negotiated process, then we're not going to be able to get a cessation in the hostilities,” said British Prime Minister Tony Blair, pressuring Hezbollah to end rocket attacks and release the two Israeli prisoners. Blair and others in the European Union don't yet get what Putin suspected that the U.S. is working its foreign policy through Israel. Neutralizing Hezbollah gives Iran less influence in the Arab world. Tehran likes to sow chaos in Palestine and Lebanon to further its own agenda. Directing attention to Lebanon helps Khamenei buy time to conceal Iran's feverish pursuit of nuclear weapons. De-fanging Hezbollah robs Iran of a major smokescreen pitting Jews against Arabs while it pursues its first A-bomb.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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