by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 14, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

bducting two and killing eight soldiers inside Israel's northern border, Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia sought to divert attention away from this weekend's G-8 summit in St. Petersburg. Faced with stiff sanctions over its uranium enrichment program, Hezbollah did its best to shift headlines from Iran to Israel's new military offensive. Pounding the Beirut airport, surrounding roads and key bridges with bombs and missiles, Israeli forces retaliated for Hezbollah's incursion into Israeli territory. Surprised by the extent of the Israeli bombardment, Israel received mixed reviews for its new push into Lebanon. “Israel has a right to defend herself,” Bush told a joint new conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, declaring, “Every nation must defend herself against terrorist attacks and the killing of innocent life,” showing support to Jewish state.

      Oil prices rocketed to unprecedented ground in Friday's midday trading to $78.40, ending the day at over $77 a barrel. Stocks sold off with the Dow Jones Industrial Average enduring its second triple-digit loss. Israel targeted Hezbollah's charismatic spiritual leader 45-year-old Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, bombing his personal residence and headquarters. “You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war,” said Nasrallah in a prerecorded tape to Hezbollah's Al Manar televeision, who escaped, together with his family and entourage, apparently unharmed. Beating the war drums plays well to the Islamic street but won't determine whether Hezbollah can do much more than fire Katyusha rockets into Israel's northern towns. Watching Beirut burning raises concerns about a wider conflagration yet Hezbollah lacks the teeth to do much more than terrorist attacks.

      Scheduled to discuss Iran's recalcitrance to give up its uranium enrichment program and North Korea's recent ballistic missile tests, the G-8 summit must now figure out a way to deescalate a growing crisis. Iran accomplishes an important goal of buying more time before it must respond to the U.N. Security Council's demand to end its uranium enrichment program. Iran's Supreme Religious leader Ali Khamenei and radical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have hinted they have no intention of abandoning rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing the Islamic nation to complete the nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes. Like Pakistan's rogue bomb maker A.Q. Khan, Iran believes A-bombs are its best defense against Western influence. Creating a crisis in Lebanon gives Hezbollah more clout and buffers Iran from intense international pressure.

      U.S. foreign policy seeks to de-fang the Iranian regime, pressuring the G-8 to speak with one voice opposing Iran's attempt to enrich uranium. Allowing Israel to degrade Hezbollah for a few more days strips Iran of another mischief-maker preventing Mideast peacemaking. Calling Israel's reaction “disproportionate,” the European Union sought to look “balanced,” while U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan feverishly pursued behind-the-scenes diplomacy. “This is a situation that can be resolved if parties take responsible action,” said U.S. Secretary of Defense Condoleezza Rice, stopping well-short of criticizing Israel. “I'm not going to try to judge every single act,” said Rice, putting Lebanon on notice that the U.S. has no intention of calling off Israel. While Israeli Prime Mininster Ehud Olmert called Hezbollah's action an “act of war,” Israel knows it was routine terrorism.

      Financial markets can't take the kind of dangerous instability close to world oil supplies. Iran has already threatened to block the Strait of Homuz through which 25% of the world's oil travels should the U.S. bomb its nuclear reactors. Israel knows that Mideast saber-rattling is largely smoke. Iran's radical mullahs want to hang on to power and wish to avoid confrontation. Letting Hezbollah make waves takes the heat off Tehran who must respond soon to U.N. demands or face possible sanctions. Nasrallah knows that if he pushes too far he'll risk his fiefdom in Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah currently serves as a defacto security force. With 12 members in Lebanon's parliament, it's difficult to deny Hezbollah's role in Lebanon's government. Like Hamas to the Palestinian Authority, Hezbollah operates with the support and approval of the Lebanese government.

      Bush's permissive stance toward Israel in Lebanon stems in part from the U.S. history with Hezbollah. Hezbollah was strongly suspected in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine Corp barracks, killing over 300 U.S. soldiers and diplomatic personnel. Allowing Israel of degrade Hezbollah serves U.S. interests, stripping one more terrorist layer away from Iran. Without Hezbollah, Iran loses its ability to project power in Lebanon. “The president is not going to make military decisions for Israel,” said White House press secretary Tony Snow, signaling that the U.S. seeks to trim back Hezbollah's war machine. With or without today's Lebanon crisis, Iran faces tough choices about whether to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Today's flair-up in Lebanon shouldn't distract the G-8 summit from dealing with Iran and mapping out a strategy for North Korea.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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