by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 13, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

emocratic presumptive nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) watched his lead shrink to a virtual dead heat against GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), according to a July 13 Newsweek poll, showing Barack with 44% to 41% for McCain. While polls in the summer doldrums tend to bounce all over the map, it's a disturbing trend for the 46-year-old first-term Illinois senator who enjoyed a hefty bounce after finishing off rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) June 7. A June 20 Newsweek poll showed Barack with a 13% lead against McCain, 51% to 38%. While those results were inflated, aggregate polling in June showed Barack with an average lead of 8%. No one knows yet whether Obama should get nervous, watching McCain pull within the statistical margin-of-error. Barack's recent inconsistencies have helped McCain climb back.

      When Barack announced June 19 he'd opt out of federal election financing, he changed his tune from early in the campaign when he expressed interest in participating. His prodigious fund raising ability made it difficult for him to restrict his campaign to the $85 million federal limit. He expects to raise more than double the limit, holding a distinct advantage over McCain in media buys for the fall campaign. Some voters viewed his decision as a flip-flop, questioning Obama's claim to be a different kind of politician. Then came his July 9 vote on the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act, giving President George W. Bush more power to order wiretaps and shield telecom companies from legal liability for violating privacy of terror suspects. Liberal Democrats viewed Obama's vote as a slap in the face, handing Bush more power to abuse civil liberties and the Constitution.

      Liberal Democrats already accused Barack of triangulation, namely, seeking middle ground to appeal to independents and crossover Republicans in the general election. When he expressed opposition to the June 25 to the Supreme Court ruling on the death penalty for child rapists, Barack had liberals scratching their heads. A balanced majority [5-4], led by moderate Justice Anthony Kennedy, voted against conservatives Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia and Samuel Alito, ruled against the death penalty, no matter how heinous child rape. Most liberal hailed the decision as the right one yet Obama sided with the court's ultra right wing. Liberals are beginning to question whether they can trust Obama on key issues affecting Democratic causes. Hillary questioned Barack's position on national health care.

      Beating Hillary didn't give Barack a green light to ignore liberals and go after independents and conservatives. Of all the issues that swayed the polls, Barack's recently nuanced position on Iraq gave liberals and even antiwar independents and GOP crossovers second thoughts. While he says his position hasn't changed, he indicated July 3 that he would wait, see and listen to generals in Iraq regarding his 16-month withdrawal plan. Whether or not he always meant to take into consideration the generals' opinions, it appeared at least to some that he was changing his original exit strategy. Taken together with McCain's statements that Barack could not be trusted, it gave voters something to think about. For those listening carefully at the Obama campaign, it signals the necessity of consistency going forward. There's premium for getting positions right the first time around.

      Recent polls doesn't necessarily indicate a Dukakis-Bush phenomenon, when, in the summer of 1988, former Democratic nominee Gov. Michael Dukakis led for President George H.W. Bush by 16% and lost in November by 9%, a whopping 25% reversal. No expects that to happen with Obama this fall. Barack still leads aggregate polling, when statistical averages are factored in. Sunday's Newsweek and Ramussen polls showing the race virtually tied should be a wake-up call to the Obama campaign. When voters start paying attention as the conventions draw near Labor Day, neither candidate can afford to flip-flop on carefully considered positions. Neither candidate has put forth concrete plans how to fix today's broken economy, where July 11 IndyMac Bank failed and federally-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac teetered on bankruptcy.

      Obama should hear a loud bell from recent polls showing that the race for the White House is getting tighter. McCain still battles headwinds going into the fall, finding himself more closely tied to the Bush presidency. Obama can't only prey on McCain's weaknesses but must project the strength found in concrete proposals to fix the economy, end the war in Iraq and reassure voters about better days ahead. Picking a smart VP is essential for both candidates, especially Obama whose weaknesses in foreign and defense policy leave him vulnerable to GOP attacks. Barack's recent inconsistencies, while not fatal, present more problems going forward than his trouble with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. When he debates McCain face-to-face on national TV, he'll be asked to answer any discrepancies. Flip-flopping isn't taken lightly by voters still sitting on the fence.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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