Obama's Midterm Doldrums

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 11, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

            President Barack Obama hopes that he can avoid a repeat of the 1994 midterm elections when former President Bill Clinton lost a decisive Democratic majority in Congress to Republicans.  Led by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia), Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate, making Clinton’s job far more complicated.  After pushing health care reform through Dec. 24, 2009, Obama gambled with his approval ratings and U.S. public opinion.   Opinion polls showed majority of voters, both Democrats and Republicans, opposing Barack’s health insurance reform bill, estimated to cost taxpayers over $1 trillion over 10 years.  While passing health care was indeed historic—since the Clintons couldn’t get it done in 1993—Obama paid a political price, pushing it through at all costs.  Continued economic weakness hurts Barack’s approval ratings.

            Given the sluggish economy, high unemployment, low tax receipts, exploding federal budget deficits and national debt, the advisability of pushing through health care must be questioned.  While it’s true Obama had to strike fast or potentially lose the opportunity, it’s also true that the final health reform package was disliked by both Democrats and Republicans:  Democrats because it didn’t go far enough toward a single-payer system like Medicare and Republicans because it’s a budget buster.  Heading into November, Obama faces the growing possibility of losing both the House and Senate. Significant losses in the Senate would paralyze Barack’s legislative agenda.  “I think there’s no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control.  There’s no doubt about that,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs admitted on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

            Also hurting Barack’s approval ratings and prospects of a poor showing in November is escalating the Afghanistan War.  When Barack ran for president, he strongly opposed the Iraq War, showing little interest in Afghanistan.  Crossover Republicans and independents voted for Obama because, when contrasted with his GOP rival Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), he was the antiwar candidate.  Only a few weeks after taking office, he increased U.S. Afghan troop strength by 21,000. Seven months later, he approved an additional 30,000 troops, boosting U.S. forces to over 100,000.  Despite reports that defense spending was breaking the economy, Obama continued to go along with Pentagon requests for more troops.  When you add that to the nation’s sluggish economy, the Gulf oil disaster, growing numbers of voters are getting buyer’s remorse with Barack

            Unlike the days leading up to the 2008 presidential election, a lot more is known about Obama now.  They know he’s a brilliant speechmaker but tends to avoid the bully pulpit unless pressed into it by a national crisis.  “I think we have to take the issues to them,” said Gibbs, referring the White House strategy before the midterm elections.  What Gibbs doesn’t get is that bad economic news dogs the president’s approval ratings.  When you add to that the war in Afghanistan and the Gulf oil spill, it damages his approval ratings.  While everyone knows the economy began tanking under Bush’s watch, it doesn’t help Barack’s numbers now that it’s his to fix.  Nearly a year-and-a-half into his presidency, Barack must clean up the economic mess for face hell to pay at the polls.  Winning the health care battle might have helped Democrats lose the upcoming electoral war.

            If Barack wants to help Democrats next November, he needs to more forcefully communicate the Democratic agenda.  So far, it looks like he has many priorities just not fixing the nation’s unemployment problem.  Under Obama’s stimulus plan, the country has run up bigger budget deficits but hasn’t added many private sector jobs.  Today’s sluggish economy directly relates to the lack of private sector jobs.  When the world’s biggest economies met in Toronto last month, the European Union counseled fiscal restraint.  Financing two extravagant wars hasn’t helped the private sector rebound and create new jobs.  Voters will vote their pocket books in November.  All the clever arguments won’t wash unless the economy continues to grow.  If Republicans take charge next November, it’s not going to be, as Gibbs says, better arguments.  It’s going to be the economy.

            Democrats face a repeat of the “Republican Revolution” next November unless Barack can get the economy to start gaining steam.  More foreclosures, bankruptcies and short-sales continue to hammer Barack’s approval ratings.  Now that health care’s passed Congress and scheduled for 2014, Barack must work feverishly to pay the steep price tag.  Lurking in the background are the fiscal insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security, the nation’s biggest social programs.  Between now and the election, Barack should be talking about how he plans to get the economy moving.  Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can’t figure out the key, anymore than billionaire investor Warrren Buffett.  While even Dr. Gloom himself, NYU Stern School Prof. Nouriel Roubini, predicts no double-dip recession yet, Obama must devote every minute of his waking day to fixing the economy. 

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.