by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 9, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

cting clueless, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed “disappointment” over Russia's threat to take some kind of “military” action over U.S. plans to deploy missile defense in the Czech Republic. Negotiations are also underway to place interceptors in Poland, where current talks stalled. “I'm sorry to say it was predictable, if disappointing, given all the effort both U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and I have made to offer to the Russians significant ways for transparency, confidence and cooperation. Former Russian President and now Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin expressed unequivocal opposition to U.S. missile defense plans in Eastern Europe. Putin's handpicked protégé President Dimitry Medvedev warned that Russian would consider countermeasures should the U.S. go ahead with missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic.

      Medvedev voiced displeasure over a recently signed deal between the U.S. and Czech Republic. Putin and Medvedev reject the U.S. rationale of protecting Western Europe against Tehran or other rogue regimes. Saying the deal “offends us greatly,” Medvedev expressed no interest in allowing the U.S. to exchange missile defense technology, making the deal more precarious. Given the instability in the Middle East, especially the dangerous game of chicken played by the U.S., Israel and Iran, pushing a missile defense seems irresponsible. Today's missile tests by Iran underscore the seismographic sensitivity of U.S.-Mideast relations. Iran test-fired July 9 nine medium and long-range missiles, an apparent answer to Israel's June 20 air force exercises, flying scores of F-15s and F-16 to Cyprus—a possible trial run to bombing Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities.

      Rice, a Soviet/Russian expert, made matters worse venting her “disappointment” over Russia's reaction. When the late President John F. Kennedy forced the Soviets to back down Oct. 28, 1962 from placing ballistic missiles in Cuba, the precedent was set preventing an aggressive military buildup. While not offensive in nature, the missile defense shield also prevents Russia's deterrent missile threat. If the U.S. deploys effective missile defense in Eastern Europe, it could render Russia's ballistic arsenal obsolete or ineffective. “Russia isn't going to get hysterical but will be studying countermeasures,” Medvedev told reporters at the G-8 summit in Japan's northern town of Toyako. With Russia already losing many of its former Soviet states, it's in no mood to accept more military supremacy by the world's last superpower. Whether shared or not, missile defense threatens Moscow.

      Rice used Iran's missile tests to underscore the need for a shield in Eastern Europe. Visiting Russian foe Georgian President Mikhail Saaksashvili, Rice antagaonized Medvedev and Putin. “I'm going to visit a friend and I don't expect much comment about the United States going to visit a friend,” said Rice, thumbing her nose at Medvedev who warned the day before about possible military consequences. It doesn't help U.S.-Russian relations to insist on finalizing a billion-dollar-plus defense contract with Boeing for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. Promising to consider Russian objections, Rice showed no willingness to heed Russian suggestions to place interceptors in Azerbaijan or other Caspian Sea Caucasus states. Medvedev confirmed his “deep distresses” over the U.S. the deal with the Czech Republic and now working on Poland.

      Iran's recent missile tests fire a warning shot over the U.S. and Israel to tamp-down rhetoric about bombing enrichment sites. While the U.N., U.S. and Israel would like to see Iran back down, they've shown no willingness to compromise their uranium enrichment program. Iran's Supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali al-Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadienjad have told world leaders that its uranium enrichment program was not negotiable. For five-and-a-half years during the Iraq War, the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency and White House allowed Tehran to develop its atomic programs without a hitch. After threatening Iran for months and Israel finishing ominous military exercises, Rice can't figure out why Tehran would finally show some muscle. Iran's missile tests send a loud message that its nuclear enrichment program is not negotiable.

      Iran banks on the reality that the U.S. is already spread too thin in Iraq and Afghanistan to open up a new front. While Ahmadinejad dismissed such threats as “silly,” he's not sure how far he can push the envelope. So far, Tehran shows no willingness to compromise on uranium enrichment. Between now and the Jan. 20, 2009 inauguration, it's highly unlikely Bush would attack, preferring to save the Iranian question for the next administration. Waiting nearly six years to finally take the Iranian nuclear threat seriously, the White House is an hour late and dollar short to do anything about it. “I see as evidence that the missile threat is not an imaginary one,” said Rice using Iran's missile tests as proof of the need for missile defense. Iran has had medium and long-range missiles for years. Russia doesn't buy Iran's tests as a rationale for missile defense.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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