by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 7, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing Democratic and GOP presumptive nominees Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for a loop, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked for a “timetable” for withdrawal of U.S. troops. McCain has accused Obama of acting irresponsibly asking for a date-certain where U.S. troops begin exiting Iraq. Obama has made ending the war a central campaign promise, pitting McCain's dogged commitment to only leave Iraq in “victory” and “honor.” Despite clear changes on the ground, McCain insists any substantial withdrawal of U.S. forces would reverse security gains and threaten to destabilize the country and the region. New facts on the ground in Iraq show what's left of al-Qaida strategically retreating to Afghanistan, far closer to Osama bin Laden's command-and-control center in Pakistan's ungoverned mountainous Waziristan region on the border.

      Al-Maliki's announcement echoes polls indicating an overwhelming majority of Iraqis want the U.S. out. Before the war, President George W. Bush sold Americans on the idea that U.S. armed forces would be welcomed liberators. When U.S. forces hit the port city of Um Quasar in the early days of the war, they were met not with waving flags but with Kalasnikovs and rocket-propelled grenades. Realizing the dilemma for McCain, the State Department refused comment about al-Maliki's unexpected announcement. “This falls in the category of ongoing negotiations, and I'm not going to talk about every single development, ever single development in the negotiations,” said State Dept. spokesman Sean McCormack. McCormack didn't know how to respond because the State Department has sold the public on the idea that the U.S. will leave on its own terms and timetable.

      Arab diplomats meeting in Abu Dhabi, UAE, discussed with al-Maliki the necessity of getting U.S. troops out of Iraq. Gulf states believe that U.S. presence invites Islamic terrorism. Reaching a memorandum-of-understanding, al-Maliki and other Arab heads-of-state formulated a plan to withdraw U.S. troops. McCain has argued that any retreat will be perceived as weakness, emboldening Islamic radicals. Al-Maliki's desire to see U.S. forces out of Iraq parallel's Barack's plan to begin withdrawing a brigade a month until most of the 150,000 troops are redeployed. U.N. mandate for foreign forces expires Dec. 31, necessitating a new security arrangement. Bush has said that if the Iraqis wish the U.S. out the military would oblige. Al-Maliki's call for a “timetable” turns Bush and McCain's argument upside down, namely, that the U.S. can't leave until al-Qaida's defeat.

      When Gen. David Petraeus testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee April 9, 2008, he warned about Shiite militias with close ties to Iran, expressing less worry about al-Qaida. With U.S. and Iraqi forces sealing off the borders, al-Qaida witnessed less recruits, shifting mujahedeen operations to Afghanistan. Residual al-Qaida fighters have been funneled to the north, now putting up a last stand near Mosul. Despite these developments, McCain insists that al-Qaida is Iraq's biggest threat and that it's irresponsible to withdraw U.S. forces. “The goal is to end the presence (of foreign troops),” said al-Maliki, reiterating his commitment to get the U.S. out. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. is currently negotiating with the Iraqis to keep forces in Iraq beyond Dec. 31, when the U.N. agreement expires.

      McCain has a real problem insisting that U.S. forces stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future. Obama's position of a phased withdrawal immediately upon taking office matches political developments in Iraq to end U.S. occupation. “We'd all like to see U.S. troops get out of there at some point in time,” said Mullen. “However, form a military perspective, I need the laws and the regulations and the agreements from the government of Iraq in order to continue operations beyond the 31st of December this year,” reminding McCain that even the military wants out. McCain characterized Obama's withdrawal plan as “surrender,” handing Iraq to al-Qaida. Based on new developments on the ground, it's consistent with Mullen and al-Maliki, who want to complete the handoff to Iraqi forces at the earliest time. Al-Maliki's call for a timetable validates Barack's plan.

      Violence in Iraq won't stop whether or not the U.S. stays or leaves. More enlightened thinking now sees an endpoint to U.S. presence, including a timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces and handing security to the Iraqi military. Whatever security agreements the U.S. signs with Iraq beyond Dec. 31, it shouldn't prevent Obama from implementing his exit strategy. Inside Iraq's parliament there's great opposition to continuing U.S. military presence. Al-Maliki's concern relates more to consolidating his power than assuring Iraq's security from foreign enemies. His stated desire to see U.S. forces out sends a loud message to the White House to begin an orderly withdrawal. McCain must readjust his thinking or become odd-man-out when it comes to what to do in Iraq. Whether or not al-Qaida—or Shiite militias—continues to make trouble shouldn't stop the U.S. from getting out.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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