by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 6, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

huffling upper management in his campaign, GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) finds himself in the same chaos as last summer, when most experts thought his chances were slim or none. Switching chairs with former campaign manager Rick Davis, McCain hopes senior advisor Steve Schmidt can pull a rabbit out of his hat. Changing hats doesn't change McCain problems heading into November: He's taking the baton from the most unpopular Republican president in modern history. President George W. Bush has lost even some of his evangelical base, dissatisfied with high gas prices and a crumbling economy. Bush's approval ratings have dipped under 30%, suggesting any affiliation with McCain practically guarantees defeat. Even on McCain's putative strength—military and foreign policy—following the Bush's policy is politically suicidal.

      Davis apparently lost his job to Schmidt due to McCain's poor showing against presumptive democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) in recent polls. Most show Barack with commanding leads, as Americans get a first look at the relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois. Obama commands great media buzz, overflowing most venues and dazzling audiences with extraordinary speechmaking. McCain faces the same problem as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), whose oratorical skills compared unfavorably to Barack. Unable to compete in the speaking arena, Hillary criticized Barack for being all show and no go. McCain faces the same dilemma, turning Barack's biggest asset—his speechmaking skills—into a liability. McCain has difficulty reading teleprompters and sticking to scripts without blowing lines. He prays he can appear more spontaneous in face-to-face debates.

      Republican strategists are at a loss to figure out how to stem the overwhelming trend toward change in November. Bush has made certain that McCain commits political suicide following the same policies leaving the country in recession, fighting an unpopular war. No one at the White House has faced the Iraq War's disastrous effect on the U.S. economy. McCain's willingness to stay the course and continue the $12-16 billion a month price tag leaves even Republicans skeptical. “The frustration is there's not big theme around which to build and winning campaign,” said GOP pollster Steve Lombardo. Lombardo knows that the two biggest themes in 2008 involve the Iraq War and failing U.S. economy. On both fronts, McCain's message has been trust me to follow Bush's policy, leading voters to seek any alternative, including a dyed-in-the-wool liberal.

      In past elections Republicans could pit “big spending” liberals against fiscally conservative Republicans. This year, the GOP promises to continue spending billions rebuilding Iraq while U.S. infrastructure rots. Crumbling bridges, decomposing levies and deteriorated public schools leave an indelible mark on voters watching hard-earned tax dollars go down the drain. McCain must continue to sell voters on an al-Qaida takeover in Iraq to justify the astronomical price tag. “They need a big strategic message that will show the difference between the two campaigns, and allow for a win,” said Lombardo, hoping for a miracle. McCain's problems stem not from a lack of ideas or strategy but for his commitment to continuing the Bush policy. Painting Democrats as big-spending liberals doesn't wash when the Iraq War cannibalizes the economy, proving the necessity of change.

      Americans in 2008 are less racist and more concerned about jobs, health care and the economy. Obama promises to end the war and rescue the economy, much like the late Ronald Reagan promised to fix the mess in 1980 caused by former President Jimmy Carter. Voters couldn't imagine giving Carter a second shot back then and they can't fathom continuing the Bush policy. Bush's former strategist Karl Rove helped get a second term but couldn't look past his nose about the bigger picture. Continuing the Iraq War tanked the economy handing the next GOP nominee and impossible task. When voters step inside the voting booth, they'll ask themselves, paraphrasing Reagan, whether they're better off. That question haunts the GOP, leaving the economy in shambles and voters worried about the future. Obama is an unintended recipient of Bush's mismanagement and failed policies.

      McCain can shuffle the deck inside his campaign but can't avoid the Gross Domestic Product, jobless rate and other measures leaving consumers more pessimistic than ever. Hiring a national political and field director won't change Schmidt's fundamental problem of confronting real misery on U.S. streets. Promising to do things differently than Bush starts with ending the war. Either way Schmidt goes, he can't win. If he nuances McCain's policy on Iraq, he alienates what's left of the conservative base. If he follows the Bush policy, he alienates independents, antiwar Republicans and even some crossover Democrats looking for a change. McCain says he likes running as an underdog. In 2008, he'll get his wish. Without complete reversals on virtually every issue, November promises to be a referendum on the Bush presidency, punishing McCain and the GOP.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.