by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 6, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

aining on California Gov. Gray Davis' fourth of July parade, the Los Angeles Times delivered the bad news: Registered voters now support his recall by 51% to 42%, especially devastating considering the sample is 60% Democrats. No matter how you spin it, it's bad news for Davis, since a similar poll taken in March found only 39% supporting a recall. Though the Times still characterizes the recall as "a Republican-led campaign," it's obvious that it's more than just Republicans. Since Davis endorsed tripling vehicle license fees, a growing consensus of registered car owners—regardless of party—believe it's time for a change. While the Times poll showed that voters aren't happy about spending $25 million on a special election, it represents a tiny fraction of the red ink in Sacramento. Skating on thin ice, Davis faces the very real prospect of getting bounced out of office.

      When Rep. Darrell Issa announced his recall campaign, few gave it much chance, especially collecting nearly 900,000 signatures necessary to make the ballot. With two months to go, Issa already has enough signatures to qualify, suggesting, at the very least, that far more than Republicans support the petition. Davis' spectacular collapse began with the 1999 power crisis and the 2000 stock market meltdown, turning the state's $10 billion surplus into today's whopping $38.5 billion deficit. Without a budget, California faces the looming prospect of running out of money by the end of summer. Davis, himself, has attributed 25% of the state's shortfall to the energy crisis, demanding $9 billion in rebates from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [FERC], the agency he blames for the state's financial woes. After reviewing the state's claims, FERC didn't see it Davis' way.

      During the power crisis, Davis sat idly by while energy prices spiraled out of control, causing the state's biggest utilities to go nearly broke. From 1999 to 2000, the cost of power soared from $35 to $2,900 per megawatt hour. Davis ignored Southern Calfiornia Edison's and Pacific Gas and Electric's pleas for rate hikes, fearing political backlash heading into 2002 elections. Once the damage was done, Davis and Public Utilities Commission chair Loretta Lynch approved whopping rate hikes. After the piracy by out-of-state power brokers was exposed, Davis negotiated, with his energy czar S. David Freeman, exorbitant long-term contracts, costing the state billions in over-charges, even after the inflated spot market collapsed. For nearly 18 months, Davis did nothing to rein in piracy, especially among power companies who contributed handsomely to his prodigious fund-raising.

      Davis painted the recall effort as a partisan witch-hunt, trying to steal back the 2002 election, won by only 5%. Democrats have closed ranks, with hopefuls like Treasurer Phil Angelides and Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer, declaring they wouldn't run in a recall election. Even U.S. Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.) took herself out of the running, hoping the recall wouldn't succeed. With the recall all but certain, Democrats will have to reconsider possible candidates, including popular elected officials and others capable of matching up against former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, GOP activist Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego), former GOP gubernatorial candidate William ["Bill"] Simon Jr. Most recent Times poll showed Riordan running strongest among registered Republicans and Feinstein for Democrats. Democrats can no longer just ignore the ever-likely recall.

      When Davis decided to balance the budget on the backs of car owners, he antagonized a sizable constituency. Even union members now disapprove him by 69%, unprecedented for an incumbent Democrat. "He's just inherited a mess, that's all," said 81-year-old retired Silicon Valley sign painter Robert Bagnatori. "They just need a scapegoat, and they're using him. The Republicans just want to take control of California," showing he hasn't caught up to growing realities or received his new vehicle license renewal. Judging by the Times' poll, both Republicans and Democrats agree that someone other than Davis must rescue the state. Growing numbers fear impending disaster, showing little confidence in Davis' leadership. Most voters don't relish the thought of wasting more tax dollars on a recall election, but they recognize the state can't afford to stay on the same trajectory.

      Growing numbers of registered voters realize that something must be done in Sacramento. Since there's no provision for recalling the entire legislature, the state's chief executive must take the heat for the current mess. Sure, Davis had no control over the stock market or corrupt power brokers, but he could have made different decisions, including intervening in a more timely manner. No governor can expect to win friends by punishing hard working taxpayers. Republicans and Democrats both share the responsibility of supporting their families and don't take lightly runaway taxes and diminished opportunities. Blaming partisan witch-hunts fail to take responsibility for the state's current mess. While Issa and the GOP began the recall, growing numbers of registered voters believe it's time for a change. Denying what's happening only makes matters worse.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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