by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 5, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

              Trying to mend fences, President Barack Obama visits Moscow July 6-7, walking a razor’s edge, trying, on the one hand, to repair years of Cold War-like damage by the Bush administration and balance a delicate political agenda.  Appearing soft on Russia doesn’t play well in domestic politics, while, at the same time, recognizing Moscow’s concession allowing the U.S. military to use Russian supply routes to Afghanistan.  Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seeks nothing short of a reversal in former President George W. Bush’s deal to install missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.  Despite warnings from Moscow, Bush plowed ahead with deals in Poland and the Czech Republic, prompting Medvedev to warn against possible military consequences.  Russia’s aggressive response in Georgia last summer was directly related to Bush’s missile defense plans.

            Concerns about Tehran’s growing nuclear ambitions prompted Bush to overrule Russian objections and move ahead with missile defense plans.  Russia believes that U.S. missile defense systems undermine Russia’s offensive missile capability, leaving Russia more vulnerable.  Moscow didn’t buy Bush’s argument that a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe was designed to neutralize a growing Iranian nuclear threat.  Russia heard all the same arguments about Saddam Hussein prompting the March 20, 2003 invasion, alienating Moscow and many other foreign governments.  With Obama’s domestic agenda laboring under a protracted recession, the administration seeks a foreign policy success.  Obama wants a new arms control agreement, scaling back Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals.  Barack seems poised to offer Medvedev much of what he wants for a new arms agreement.

            Former Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, now prime minister, plays an influential role in shaping Medvedev’s policies, opposed to the U.S. plans for missile defense.  “If we talk about missile defense, then we must refer to global action to protect ourselves from countries which actually pose a threat today,” said Medvedev, promising a new arms control agreement if Washington agrees to abandon missile defense.  Not one U.S. ally—with the possible exception of Britain—shares the U.S concern about. growing Iranian missile capability.  Bush offered to share U.S. anti-missile defense technology with Russia but failed to convince Putin and Medvedev to abandon their objections. “If we combine our assets on missile defense, the United States, Russia and our allies will be much safer than if we go it alone,” said Barack, offering Moscow little reassurance.

            To improve relations with Moscow, Barack must be prepared to renege on contracts with Boeing, Poland and the Czech Republic.  There’s billions of dollars at stake, requiring bold leadership to move relations between Moscow and the U.S. closer.  Bush never established any credible Iranian threat, prompting suspicions about U.S. motives.  A recent University of Maryland survey indicated that 75% of Russians do not trust U.S. motives on missile defense.  Medvedev tentatively approved flyover and ground approval for the U.S. military to ferry supplies to Afghanistan.  Barack must respond in-kind, showing he’s ready to compromise on missile defense.  Antagonizing Moscow does nothing to improve U.S. national security, especially when the U.S. needs Russian to help manage growing problems with Iran and North Korea.  Obama must get the big picture.

            Improvements in U.S.-Russian relations are long overdue.  Last summer’s near collision with Russia over Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s reckless move to annex Russian territory was the closest confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.  Russia wasn’t too happy about the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline, designed to bypass Russia to supply oil and natural gas to Europe   Obama needs to show sensitivity to Russian concerns, especially plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe.  Former breakaway Soviet satellites like Georgia and the Ukraine supply ongoing tension in Russia.  “This is being played as essentially a low-key visit that shows the American leadership’s respect for the Russian leadership,” said Dmitry Trenin, head of the Moscow Carnegie think tank before Barack’s visit.  Obama has a real chance to turn the corner with U.S-Russian relations.          

            U.S. cooperation with Russia goes a long way to improve regional, global and U.S. national security.  Iran’s recent fake election and brutal crackdown of pro-democracy reformers opens the door for Israel to take unilateral action on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamadinejad expressed interest in talking to Obama, in part because he knows Israel could launch preemptive strikes at anytime.  Ahmadinejad knows that if Iran retaliates, it opens the door for a devastating U.S. assault designed for regime change, ridding the Iran of its mullah-dominated government. When Obama meets with Medvedev and Putin this week, he must make necessary concessions to improve U.S. strategic influence.  Canceling plans for missile defense should pay rich dividends, helping enlist Russian cooperation in managing Iran and North Korea.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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