by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright July 5, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ending a loud and clear message to the international community, Iran flat-out refused to give up its uranium enrichment program. European Union officials slapped Iran with new sanctions for refusing to give up enrichment in exchange for certain economic incentives. All the gunboat diplomacy and saber-rattling won't pressure the Persian nation into giving up uranium enrichment, believed by many experts a precursor to weapons grade fissile material. White House and Israeli officials have become more frustrated with Iran's refusal to stop enriching uranium. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are committed to atomic development, making the U.S. and Israel nervous. EU officials hoped that Iran would heed Security Council demands to stop all enrichment activities, something seen as a remote possibility.

      Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motakki said Iran was considering a EU proposal to suspend its uranium enrichment activities. While Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have said repeatedly Iran's atomic program was not negotiable, the U.N. and EU continue to press the issue. “It was not something that made us jump for joy,” said an unnamed EU official, realizing that Tehran rebuffed efforts to tamper with its enrichment program. Iran knows full-well that neither the U.S. nor Europe can stop Iran enriching uranium, short of military action. “We are in a holding mode until we get a chance to look at it more closely,” dreaming about the remote possibility of Iran acquiescing. All indications point toward Iran moving feverishly toward weapons grade uranium. Years elapsed while Iran's nuclear program flew under the radar of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency.

      Five-and-a-half years into the Iraq War, the White House now expresses concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions. They've known all along that Iran—not Iraq—had a robust nuclear program, despite moving against Saddam Hussein March 20, 2003 for his alleged arsenal of dangerous weapons. Whether or not the administration miscalculated on Iraq, the fact remains that Iran has an active nuclear program. Iran's hierarchy believes the best path to self-defense goes though an A-bomb. U.N. and EU officials would sing a different tune if Tehran were a recognized nuclear power. There's little doubt about Iran's ambitions. Most sane voices at the U.N. and EU do not believe that bombing Iran's nuclear sites will do anything more than make a bad situation worse. U.N. and EU officials are kidding themselves believing that they can negotiate away Iran's atomic program.

      Iran's nuclear program aims at what Pakistan's bomb-maker A.Q. Khan calls the “great deterrent.” Pakistan found out the hard way that its archenemy India was neutralized by its A-bomb. Since Pakistan announced its nuclear weapon in 1998, there's little argument or discussion about Kashmir, the disputed region that put India and Pakistan into perpetual war. Ahmadinejad knows the prestige and deterrent power from possessing an A-bomb. “Iran's stand regarding its peaceful nuclear power program has not changed,” said government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham, signaling Tehran's unwillingness to compromise on its nuclear program. Iran will negotiate “within the framework of the international rules and regulations,” said Elham, reminding the international community that Iran is well-within its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

      Western observers hope against hope that Iran intends to “negotiate” away its uranium enrichment program. Iran has nothing to gain and everything to lose abandoning its nuclear activities. U.N. special enjoy Javier Solana continues to dialogue with Iranian officials staving off the West on vague statements about reconsidering its program. While the West tries to cajole Iran into concessions, the march toward weapons grade uranium gets closer. Solana hopes Khamenei and Ahmadinejad accept EU economic incentives to abandon uranium enrichment. Every time Solana raises his hopes, the Iranian government makes more excuses. Meanwhile, more and more uranium hexoflouride gas is spun out of Iran's growing cascade of centrifuges. More sanctions haven't discouraged Iran from building more centrifuges to accelerate the acquisition of weapons grade uranium.

      Bush insists he wants to deal with the Iranian problem with more multilateral diplomacy, despite saber-rattling in the U.S. and Israel. Freezing Iranian assets and restricting travel in the U.S. and Europe won't force Tehran's hand. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have characterized Iran's nuclear program as their country's greatest source of national pride. Within Iran, it's the equivalent of the U.S. space program. Though the Security Council seems committed to more sanctions, Russia continues to supply technology and help build Iran's Bushehr reactor. Whether the U.S. or U.N. admit it or not, Russia not only supplies much of Iran's nuclear technology but also sophisticated arms to fight surrogate wars in Iraq and Lebanon. Iran hopes to run out the clock on the Bush White House, expecting the likely Democratic administration to be less militarily adventurous.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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