Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Makes Peace Offering

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 28, 2013
All Rights Reserved.                                      

              When the ducks lined up behind 64-year-old moderate Iranian presidential candidate Hassan Rouhani June 16, a palpable shift was underway to open up a new dialogue with the West.  Under the mouthy 56-year-old Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has endured eight sets of U.N. sanctions since July 31, 2006, with  June 7, 2012 the most punitive, prohibiting Iran for selling oil to U.N.-member states.  While Iran has found clever ways of skirting the sanctions, they have still damaged the currency and caused widespread shortages. Since Rouhani’s election, the rial has risen 15%, hinting that currency traders see some positive movement underfoot.  Calling the solution to the nuclear stalemate “easy,” Iran’s 74-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei sees no reason why the U.S. and U.N. Security Council can’t cut a mutually acceptable deal.

             Ridding Iran of Ahmadinejad opens a real possibility that the White House and U.N. could broker an acceptable deal.  Iran would like to resume Iran Air direct flights to the U.S., especially to Los Angeles where the largest ex-patriot community lives.  “The solution to Iran’s nuclear case is an easy and smooth job,” said Khamenei, if the U.S. wishes to strike a deal.  With the U.S. on the verge in intervening against Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas in Syria, Khamenei hopes avoid escalation into a broader Mideast conflict.  Announcing that they’re closing their Tartus naval base, Russian authorities clearly anticipate an end to the Bashar al-Assad regime.  Russia and China have practically begged President Barack Obama to stay out of Syria, believing that toppling al-Assad would open the floodgates of terrorism in the region, causing more violence and anarchy.

             Putin suffered the indignity at the June 17 at the G8 summit in Northern Ireland of seeing Western nations gang up on him about Syria.  While Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrove agreed to host a Geneva peace conference on resolving the Syrian conflict, Moscow has been steadfast backing al-Assad.  Today’s announcement that Russian plans to close the Tartus naval base signals that Puttin may be coming around.  So far Russia has rebuffed U.S. extradition requests for fugitive National Security Administration leader 29-year-old Edward Snowden.  Snowden remains incognito in the holding area of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport, awaiting possible asylum from Ecuador or Cuba.  With Ecuador balking because of a possible loss of U.S. foreign aid, Putin would score some big points with U.S. officials if he ended the drama and handed over Snowden.  

             Khamenei knows that Rouhani, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator, knows the issues with the International Atomic Energy Agency to negotiate a compromise with the U.S. and U.N., ending punitive sanctions.  “The opposition front against Iran does not want the nuclear issue to be solved,” Khamenei told a group of Judiciary officials in Tehran.  Ahamadinejad’s defiance over the last 7 years has led to crippling U.N. sanctions, plummeting the currency and stifling the economy.  Defending Iran’s right to its nuclear program, Ahmandinejad has threatened to blockade the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world’s oil travels, should the U.S. continue to stage naval exercises.  Rouhani’s June 16 election signals that Ayatollah Khamenei may be looking for away out of the box painted in by Ahmadinejad, where only confrontation remains a viable option.

             Holding practically every position in the Iranian government, Rouhani knows that Ahmadinejad’s ways haven’t advanced the Iranian agenda.  More isolated than ever, Rouhani could perform some urgent damage control by striking a deal with the U.S. and U.N. on the nuclear program.  Western officials have no problem with Iran enriching uranium for electricity or medical isotopes.  They simply want the IAEA to supervise Iran’s nuclear program to assure it’s for peaceful purposes.  If Rouhani can accomplish that, in exchange for lifting U.N. sanctions and opening up a dialogue with the U.S., he’ll put Iran back on a favored-nation status.  When Rouhani takes over from Ahmandinejad in August, he’ll need all the help he can get to put Iran back on the right track.  “Managing the country is a difficult job, indeed,” said Khaemenei, encouraging all government departments to cooperate.

             Signaling that Russia may acquiesce to seeing al-Assad go, the time is ripe for Rouhani to begin overtures to the U.S. and U.N.  Agreeing to IAEA inspections would be a positive first step in restoring confidence with Iran’s nuclear program and ending crippling sanctions.  When Iran’s Foreign Minister Akbar Salehi said he supports restoring direct flights from Tehran to Los Angeles, he hinted at a new day for Iran under Rouhani’s leadership.  While there remain many obstacles to ending the sanctions and normalizing relations, it would help for Rouhani to call back Hezbollah in Syria.  Whatever problems exist with Iran’s nuclear program, they pale in comparison to the U.S. fighting a proxy war in Syria by confronting Hezbollah.  Opening up new multilateral talks over Iran’s nuclear program would be a good starting point to eventually end sanctions and improve relations.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.