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Putin Calls Back the Dogs in Eastern Ukraine
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
June 23, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Showing
signs that he’s returning to his senses on Ukraine, 61-year-old Russian
President Vladimir Putin called for more negotiation with Kiev on the fate of
Ukraine’s Eastern provinces.
Signaling that he’ll tell pro-Russian separatist to back down on aggressive
actions in Eastern Ukraine, Putin hoped to placate the U.S. and European Union
enough to avoid more economic and travel sanctions. When pro-Russian separatists were
found patrolling in Russian tanks, the U.S. and EU stepped up threats of more
sanctions against Moscow. When
Putin seized Crimea March 1, it threw Western officials for a loop, having now
coherent way to get the former KGB agent to back down. Seizing Crimea violated Ukraine’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity prompting ugly comparisons of Putin to
Adolf Hitler in the 1930s. Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made the comparison March 4.
Since Hillary made her remarks, the U.K’s Prince Charles and Lithuanian
President Dalia Grygabauskaité also made similar comparisons to Hitler,
intimidating Russia’s neighbors and former Soviet satellites, actually annexing
Crimea March 1. Putin’s recent call
for negotiation reflects more threats from the Washington and Brussels for
economic and travel sanctions.
Calling back the dogs in Eastern Ukraine represents Putin’s attempt to stop
Russia’s economic hemorrhage that’s devalued the ruble and Russian stock market. Ukraine’s 49-year-old Presdient Petro Petorshenko called for a unilateral stop to
Ukraine’s armed conflict in Eastern territories.
Calling for a ceasefire, Petroshenko hoped to bring Putin to the table. Pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels agreed
to release all observers taken from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation as proof of his good faith.
When news agencies saw pro-Russian separatists riding in Russian tanks,
it belied Putin’s claims that the Russian military wasn’t assisting pro-Russian
separatists seeking independence and autonomy from Kiev. Rebel leader Alexander Borodai said
pro-Russian separatists would abide by the ceasefire begun Friday and running
through 0700 GM [2 pm] Friday.
Putin bit off more than he could chew seizing Crimea March 1, costing the
Russian treasury billions in revenue.
Telling pro-Russian zealots in Eastern Ukraine to hold off on secession
votes May 7, Putin realized the economic nightmare of taking on more former
Soviet satellites into Russia’s welfare state.
With Poroshenko now at the helm, Putin feels more inclined to find a way
out of the crisis, including the possibility of giving back Crimea in exchange
for assurances about Russian gas sales and military bases in Crimea.
Appointing Ukraine’s ex-President Leonid Kuchima as a peace envoy opens
up chances of a lasting political deal.
Russia’s former ambassador to Ukraine has clout in the Kremlin where
hardliners want no compromise only to seize more Ukrainian land. What triggered Putin’s annexation of
Crimea was the Feb. 22 anti-Russian, Western-backed coup that toppled the
elected government of pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich. No one can explain why pro-Western
forces whipped up in street protests by former 42-year-old former World heavyweight champion
Vitale Klitschko. When Yanukovich
rejected an EU plan to resolve Ukrainian debt in Nov. 2013, anti-Russian street
protests led by Klitschko went viral while Putin hosted the Sochi Winter
Olympics, chasing Yanukovich out of Kiev.
EU officials working through the World Bank haven’t offered Ukraine
anything close to Putin’s $15 billion bailout.
With Kuchima Putin’s point-man, it’s possible the ceasefire will hold,
paving the way to bilateral talks to resolve remaining issues, including
eventually returning Crimea to Ukraine.
Putin needs a long-term lease from Kiev to protect his Black Sea naval
base and other military installations in Crimea.
“If both sides hopefully observe it [the cease fire], then a normal peace
process could start,” said Kuchima, hopeful that he can pull off a peace deal. Putin seeks more autonomy for the
Easter provinces that want closer ties to Moscow. Now that Putin’s seen the economic
pitfalls of annexing Crimea, Poroshenko should be able to get the right natural
gas deal to both lower Kiev’s energy rates from Russia’s Gasprom, and, at the
same time, give Putin all the guarantees he needs to eventually return Crimea. Giving up Crimea would end all U.S.
and EU sanctions and get Putin back in the G8.
Kuchima’s mature diplomacy should help give Putin a face-saving way out
of his current dilemma of giving back Crimea to win back his good graces with
the West. Above all else, Putin
wants to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, something that may not work with
Poroshenko’s ultimate goals. Most
of the former Soviet Republics have no interest in rejoining the Russian
federation like the old Soviet days.
Countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all want more NATO
forces to prevent Putin from doing to them what he did in Crimea. With Kuchima’s help, Putin has the
perfect out for his impulsive move to annex Crimea. He didn’t foresee all the adverse
political fallout from the U.S. and EU, essentially making Russia a pariah
state. Returning Crimea in exchange
for long-term gas deals and leases on Russian military bases should give Putin
enough reason to back down.
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