by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 20, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

orth Korea's reclusive leader Kim Jong-Il couldn't stand its evil twin Iran grabbing all the headlines, pushing the world to the brink over its uranium enrichment program. Almost three years ago, Pyongyang was threatening to fire up its 1960s-vintage 5-megawatt graphite moderated, carbon dioxide gas-cooling reactor, to generate more plutonium to make nuclear bombs. Kim wanted to exact concessions from the West, threatening to abrogate the 1994 “Agreed Framework,” negotiated during the Clinton administration. Threatening to test-launch a new intercontinental ballistic missile, North Korea wants to steal the world stage from Iran, whose fragile negotiations with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council teeter on collapse. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea that testing its three-stage Taepondong-2 missile would be a costly mistake.

      Rice ratcheted up the gunboat diplomacy, rallying the international community against Kim Jong-Il's rogue nation. President George W. Bush called his shaky ally Russian President Vladimir Putin, who offered no definitive statement about the expected missile test. Putin plays a slippery game of “both sides against the middle,” maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with North Korea and Tehran. With shrinking clout, Putin and the Kremlin want to play any angle that diminishes U.S. global influence, including throwing support to bitter U.S. adversaries. “It would be a very serious matter and, indeed, a provocative act should North Korea decide to launch that missile,” said Rice, hoping some saber rattling would deter North Korea. Pentagon authorities announced that it would mobilize the U.S. strategic missile defense system in response to the possible North Korean missile test.

      At the U.N., U.S Ambassador John Bolton scheduled meetings with key members of the Security Council. U.S. officials seem vexed by North Korea's announcement yet it's a repeat of 1998 when the isolated communist nation test-fired an ICBM over northern Japan, causing another diplomatic crisis. “But we don't really don't know what the North Korean intentions are at this point, so I think we need to wait for the event,” said Bolton, not sure how to respond. Back in 1998, Japan considered the missile launch an act of war, prompting intense diplomacy resulting in a 2002 pact suspending further ballistic missile tests. North Korea has practiced a self-imposed moratorium on missile testing since 1999. “I think sanctions would have to be considered, but I wouldn't want to describe what actions we might take,” said U.S. ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer.

      U.S. finds itself wedged between Iran and North Korea, both presenting complicated challenges. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has pushed the U.S. to the brink over his uranium enrichment program. When Ahmadinejad talks about joining the nuclear club, he's not referring to making electricity. Since announcing its big success enriching uranium April 11, the radical Islamic regime has insisted it won't sacrifice its rights under the Non-proliferation Treaty, permitting it to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Like Kim Jong-Il, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei knows that the threat of A-bombs levels the playing field with the West. North Korea repeatedly says it needs nuclear weapons to counter a possible U.S. invasion. Now that the U.N. Security Council has offered Iran a generous package of incentives to halt uranium enrichment, North Korea wants the same deal.

      Unlike North Korea, Bush has made it clear that nuclear weapons are non-negotiable with Iran. While the U.N. Security Council hopes to avert sanctions and possible military confrontation, Bush warned Tehran to stop uranium enrichment and reprocessing. “If Iran's leaders reject our offer, it will result in action before the Security Council, further isolation from the world, and progressively stronger political and economic sanctions,” said Bush, heaping pressure on the Islamic Republic to accept the Security Council's proposal. So far, Tehran has promised it would review the proposal and respond in due time. Iran has made uranium enrichment its inalienable right. There's little reason to believe Ahmadinejad will flip-flop, stop enriching uranium and open nuclear facilities up for inspection. Like tag-team wrestlers, Iran and North Korea keep pounding away.

      Playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship, Kim Jong-Il smells vulnerability as the U.S. attempts to contain Iraq's deterioration and an escalating crisis with Iran. North Korea doesn't believe the U.S.—or U.N. for that matter—can do anything to restrain its ballistic missile program, that promises to share its technology with Tehran. There's no better time for North Korea to seize the world stage while the U.S. hemorrhages in Iraq and tries to juggle complex diplomacy with Tehran. Complaining about U.S. espionage activity, North Korea has become fed up with U.S. spying. Showing its true colors, a North Korean state TV broadcast monitored in Seoul cited a Russian editorial that said the North “has the due right to have a missile that can immediately halt the United States' reckless aerial espionage activity.” When Bush calls Putin again, he should ask him what he really thinks.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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