by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 20, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

laying his cards close to the vest, presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) finds himself scrambling for a running mate, with unavoidable tradeoffs no matter whom he chooses. While voters typically vote the top of the ticket, the VP can make or break close elections. Since 2004 promises to repeat 2000, Kerry can't afford to make the wrong choice. In hindsight, Gore probably lost votes picking Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), not, as some would have you think, because of his orthodox Jewish faith but because he measured up poorly to Vice President Dick Cheney. Despite Cheney's medical problems, Lieberman looked and sounded namby-pamby in their one-and-only debate. Picking Lieberman was a double-whammy for Gore, not known, like his former boss, for abundant charisma. Kerry can't afford to make the same mistake this time around.

      Kerry must try to weigh experience against an exciting new face. When George H. W. Bush picked Indiana Sen. Dan Quale in 1988, he did so for his youth, looks and appeal to women. Reagan's nostalgic coattails helped pave Bush-41's way to the White House in 1988 but not in 1992 when he lost to former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton—though, truth be told, Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot, not Bush's lack of popularity, kept him from a second term. Kerry's pick must consider whether his VP helps (a) land more votes in battleground states, (b) energize the ticket, (c) avoid unwanted controversy, (d) provide a qualified backup and (e) deliver a rousing convention speech. Like picking the right mate, the VP choice either enhances matters or invites disaster. Weighing his choices, Kerry must shrewdly pick the candidate most likely to improve his chances in November.

      Kerry's choices narrowed when Arizona Sen. John McCain campaigned with President Bush, dashing hopes about a bipartisan ticket with two ex-Vietnam vets. Renewed attention has now focused on former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-St. Louis), whose ties to organized labor appeal to rank-and-file Democrats. While Gephardt has a ton of experience, he's an old face without much national appeal. Whether Gephardt could deliver Missouri, or other key battleground states remains unclear. He has stature but lacks charisma, especially among young voters. Gepahardt lost his post to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), when the House lost Democrat seats in the last mid-term election. Gephardt doesn't match-up well against Vice President Dick Cheney, whose shrewd CEO skills would make him look ponderous, impractical and ineffectual.

      Kerry doesn't have the luxury of selling less known candidates on the national stage. Considering Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack or Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius wouldn't satisfy the basic requirement of experience to be president. In a post-Sept. 11-era, choosing a running mate without military or foreign policy background wouldn't fly. They would both look most unqualified debating Cheney. Looking to someone with strong military and foreign policy credentials, Kerry surely considers former European Supreme Allied Commander and Democratic candidate, four-star Gen. Wesley Clark. Clark offers Kerry instant name recognition and the foreign policy and military credentials needed to compete against President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. Clark's negatives include his lack of humor and lingering controversy about his early retirement from military service.

      Also lurking in the background are Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fl.), a high-ranking member of the Veterans Affairs Committee, former Sen. Bob Kerry (D-Neb.), a high- profile member of the Sept. 11 commission, Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), Vice Chairman of Select Committee on Intelligence, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Clinton's former energy secretary. None of these candidates offer Kerry the kind of vote-getting possibilities needed for real consideration. With McCain out, only former presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) offers Kerry the kind of instant name recognition and personal appeal needed to win. What Edwards lacks in military and foreign policy experience, he more than makes up in charisma and popularity. His Southern charm and populist message balances well against Kerry's upper-crust persona.

      While the veepstakes makes for high drama heading into the convention, it's not rocket science to figure out Kerry's short list. Kerry must carefully weigh Clark against Edwards. All polls point toward a Kerry-Edwards ticket. “The vice presidential nomination almost always doesn't go to the person who the people expect. That doesn't bode well for Edwards,” said Steve McMahon, an advisor to former Democratic rival Howard Dean. By McMahon's logic, Dean represents Kerry's unexpected choice. Dean's off-the-wall behavior and unceremonious nosedive in Iowa wouldn't put Kerry on the right foot. Only Edwards offers Kerry the kind of excitement needed to bolster an otherwise lackluster ticket. While Iraq remains Bush's Achilles Heel, an improving economy makes Kerry's VP pick all the more important. Instead of bucking the polls, Kerry should listen to voters and give them what they want.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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