by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 18, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

nticipating pressure of the “troop surge” Sept. progress report, Iraq's top U.S. commander David H. Petraeus, hedged on what to expect. Congressional critics want a definitive statement about whether the surge has helped pull Iraq from the abyss, prompting loud calls for an orderly withdrawal. President George W. Bush successfully beat back Congressional calls for timetables, winning $100 billion more for Iraq and Afghanistan. Petraeus is now signaling that his Sept. report would involve more a justification for continued war than a clear progress report. “I do not, no. I think we have a lot of heavy lifting to do,” said Petraeus on CBS's “Meet the Press,” in response to questions about whether the 30,000 new troops would be complete in Sept. Iraq's ambassador Ryan C. Croker echoed Petraeus indicating the report would be “an assessment of what consequences might be if we pursue other directions.”

      Crocker tipped his hand, showing the White House has no intent of changing course based on Sept.'s progress report. “We've got to consider what could happen,” Crocker told Tim Russert on NBC's “Meet the Press,” hinting what critics suspected that the White House would try to squeeze more time out of the troops. For months, the White House has argued that pulling out would create a nightmare far worse than the unending slog watching U.S. casualties steadily rise. With Bush's approval ratings at an all-time low and with the GOP facing next year's election, the White House is under increasing pressure to show progress. So far, nearly four-and-a-half years of war and thousands of U.S. casualties have offered little reassurance. Petraeus admitted that “many, many challenges” would not be resolved “in a year or even two,” dashing hopes of “victory” anytime soon.

      White House strategists hope to soften GOP opposition to the current blank check in Iraq. Given the public's disgust with Iraq, many congressional Republicans fear a backlash at the polls, should Bush stay-the-course. “I think everybody anticipates that there's going to be a new strategy in the fall,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), putting the White House on notice that GOP patience is running thin. Speaking on CBS' “Face the Nation,” McConnell predicted that troop levels were not sustainable, now totaling around 150,000. He expressed “a big disappointment” with the government of Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, incapable of implementing reforms necessary for political progress. Since deploying an additional five combat brigades early last spring, the White House hoped for less violence in Baghdad and around the country.

      Without reconciling political differences between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, including sharing oil wealth, Iraq remains split along ethnic lines. Only Saddam's brutal repression kept Iraq's disparate groups from civil war. Al-Maliki's government is running out of time to reconcile differences among Iraq's ethnic factions. Al-Qaeda steps up its attacks on both Sunni and Shiite targets, assuring, if nothing else, that Iraq remains in chaos. Bush's new strategy involves recruiting Saddam's Baathists to fight al-Qaida, whose strategy involves ridding Iraq of U.S. occupation. While it's tempting to play both sides against the middle, Iraq's insurgents and leftover Baathists agree that U.S. occupation is the biggest stumbling block to resolving sectarian strife. Throwing a roadblock into U.S. plans, Iraq's new military under al-Maliki shows more loyalty to insurgents than David Petraeus.

      Visiting Iraq over the weekend, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates expressed dissatisfaction with the al-Maliki government. Gates said “that our troops are buying them time to pursue reconciliation, that frankly we are disappointed by the progress so far,” putting Maliki on notice that U.S. patience is running out. One week earlier Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte and Centcom commander Adm. William J. Fallon delivered the same message. Al-Maliki criticized U.S. officials for “dictating to the Iraqi government,” adding that “pressure” and “timetables . . . did not help.” Al-Maliki plays a dangerous game of cozying up to Iran, making deals with Baathists and trying negotiate with Iraq's desultory insurgents and terrorists, including anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. While U.S. soldiers continue to die in record numbers, al-Maliki resists U.S. pressure to get results.

      Petraeus knows that he faces as much pressure from the White House as he does from terrorists and insurgents wreaking havoc on U.S. forces. Iraq's troop surge gave Petraeus the ability to launch new operations in formerly safe havens for al-Qaida terrorists and Shiite militias. While congress awaits his progress report in Sept., Petraeus promised an unvarnished report giving the good, the bad and the ugly. His report “will be a forthright assessment of what we've achieved and what we haven't achieved,” though it will divert attention away from “progress” and onto the justification for continuing the mission. Petraeus portrays Iraq as comparable to Northern Ireland, something that took 30 years to finally reach a political solution. Deaf to the political repercussions, Petraeus signals to congress that there's no quick-fix with the prospects for victory equally vague.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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