by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 17, 1999
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing his hat into the ring and replaying all too familiar themes, vice president Albert Gore Jr. made it official, announcing his candidacy for president of the United States. With the advantage of incumbency playing a negligible role, his campaign seemed to be drifting in the backwater compared to his Republican rival, George W. Bush. Trying to salvage some momentum, vice president Gore appeared uncharacteristically animated and mildly critical during his announcement — made before his hometown faithful in Carthage, Tennessee.

       Lagging in the polls and under pressure to accelerate his campaign, his advisors pushed him to appear decisive and 'forceful,' demonstrating strong leadership and mastery over known Clinton-themes, including health care, gun control, media violence, social security and balanced budgets. Lurking beneath the surface is still the specter of 'charisma,' casting a stubborn pall of banality on the candidate and his campaign.

       Rubbing elbows with president Clinton and trying to capture at least some of the economic 'halo,' but cleverly distancing himself from his boss’s moral and ethical problems, Gore put his best foot forward — though somewhat tentatively. Let’s face it, in these early rounds, both he and governor Bush are still testing the water, floating trial balloons on their positions and personalities.

       Promising to "balance the budget or better — every year," Mr. Gore made his best case for a continuation of the Clinton policy. Knowing that most people vote their pocketbooks, he rightfully identified himself with the years of prosperity fueling the most pervasive and sustained economic expansion in the nation’s history. But even greedy Wall Street gives Alan Greenspan some of the credit. Others are even wondering what happens to all the ambitious government programs — and the vaunted budget 'surplus' — when the economy heads south? Most people who follow economic cycles know that the good times can’t last forever.

       Popularity and job performance ratings are mercurial phenomena heavily influenced by economic factors and perceptions. While president Clinton survived impeachment during the best of times, what would have happened had the economy been in the tank? It’s anyone’s guess. As both candidates know, they’re at the mercy of the economy which seems to have a mind of its own. At least right now, Mr. Gore enjoys a strategic advantage. Few, on both sides of the aisle, can really argue with success. Suggesting that today’s economy bears the fruit of economic policies begun during the Reagan and Bush years can easily backfire. It’s best for the Republican challenger to focus on his strengths and his opponent’s real soft spots.

       Since Clinton hijacked the Republican identity in 1992 by introducing the 'new Democrat' image, Republicans have yet to rehabilitate themselves. Campaigning on an anti-big government platform, Clinton successfully siphoned-off the irresistible Reagan aura — along with democratic crossovers. He captured back the Reagan democrats, many of whom became disenchanted with president Bush’s policies, personality and a sour economy. It’s now up to the younger Bush to reclaim those Reagan democrats with his own brand of 'compassionate conservatism.' Without Al Gore and the Democratic party monopolizing the word 'compassion,' governor Bush could complete an end-run on traditional Democratic values and swing voters. Mastery of the press is yet another matter.

       Even during the height of the Iran-Contra scandal, facing a piranha-like news conference, Reagan was once asked, "Why he seemed so 'casual' about the way he handled the whole Iran-Contra affair." Quipping back, he remarked, "The only thing I’ve been causal about since I’ve been here is giving a press conference." Reagan’s legendary wit and relationship with the press bailed him out of many dicey situations. Without that kind of spontaneity, what can Al Gore or George W. Bush expect? Clearly, a more bumpy ride ahead.

       At this point, neither of the two front-runners can boast extraordinary relationships with the press. Certainly the press is more infatuated with the still enigmatic George W. Bush. Having less exposure on the national stage, Bush currently holds the press advantage over the better known and less colorful Al Gore. But that can change very quickly. A couple of impatient answers or clumsy moves and the press can be easily jarred out of the honeymoon. With all the hopes and expectations about George W. Bush soaring, he needs to play his press card very skillfully. There’s already some grumbling about his aloofness and tinges of arrogance. Maybe apples really don’t fall too far from the trees.

       While Gore seems better rehearsed and in command of standard campaign rhetoric, Bush appears less committal about hazarding his views. Eventually he’ll have to talk more lavishly about controversial issues. With enough prodding, the press will eventually either pull him out of his shell or hound him with noticeable antagonism. One thing’s for sure, all the deferential treatment is bound to expire. Handling the press — for both candidates — will determine the outcome of the election. Though many would like to believe that substance trumps style, the truth is that image and perceptions count for a lot. The candidate who 'handles' the media more adroitly will eventually prevail.

       With the 'charisma' factor still looming large, governor Bush already has a leg up on his democratic competitor. But, like other forms of infatuation, charisma too can unravel quickly. During this vulnerable honeymoon stage with the press, milking this angle can be a risky proposition. Substance and mastery of the issues still count for something. Despite all hype, most people prefer the status quo especially if it’s to their advantage. Change doesn’t come easily. But if both candidates remain true to form, it’s going to be a tough race to call.

About the Author

John M. Curtis is director of a West Los Angeles think tank specializing in human behavior, health care and political research and media consultation. He’s a seminar trainer, columnist and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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