by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 17, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

              Walking a tightrope, President Barack Obama reluctantly heeded calls from conservatives to challenge Iran’s disputed June 12 election, where incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently won reelection.  Opposition candidate Mir-Hossain Mousavi and thousands of supporters took to Tehran’s streets to protest what they saw as a fixed election.  Shortly after polls closed around the country, Ahmadinejad and Iran’s Interior Ministry declared victory, trouncing reform-minded candidate Mousavi 66.6% to 33.75%, collecting, counting, analyzing and tabulating results in record time.  Without calling the election fraud, Obama expressed concern for violence and loss of life of protestors confronted by militias connected with Iran’s ruling mullahs.  Mass demonstrations in Tehran show that growing numbers of voters find life under Islamic extremists intolerable.

            Before the Shah’s fall in 1979, Iran was a pro-Western, pluralistic society, valuing modernization and multiculturalism.  Since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took over, a fiercely oppressive group of mullahs, led by the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts, control every aspect of Iranian life.  Controlled by the oppressive Republican Guard, an offshoot of the Shah’s secret police, Western influence has been all but purged from Iranian life.  Women have been especially persecuted, banned from wearing makeup and fashionable clothing and forced to wear traditional Islamic attire called the hijab, a long scarf that covers the hair and face.  Roving bands of plainclothes Republican Guard beat and arrest violators for wardrobe infractions or watching or listening to Western TV/movies, music or shows.  Mass protests against the June 12 election rebelled against strict Islamic law.

            Throwing a bone to protestors, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reluctantly agreed to a limited vote recount, not likely to reverse the election.  Not yet arrested, Mousavi called for another mass rally, defying Iran’s Guardian Council, calling for a sharp end to mass protests.  Iranian authorities responded to protests by banning all foreign journalists and cutting off nationwide Intenet access.  Iranian authorities accused Washington of “intolerable” interference in Iran’s internal affairs.  Treading on thin ice, Obama was very careful not to accuse Ahmadinejad of vote fraud.  Merely acknowledging the rights of protestors antagonized Iran’s ruling mullahs.  Mousavi’s protests have put pressure on Iran’s Supreme Leader and Guardian Council, now watched carefully by disgruntled voters.  Cracking down too fiercely could lend credence to a fraudulent election.

            Mousavi’s protests and mass demonstration are closely watched by Iran’s former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads the powerful Assembly of Experts, a 12-member clerical body that picks Iran’s supreme leader.  Rafsanjani, a vocal critic of Ahmadinejad, could, while not likely, oust Khamenei for violating Islamic law.  “It is a split itself over the election and the broader grand strategy of the country,” said Robert Niblett, director of the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London.  Niblett was especially concerned with the government’s block on Web sites, including BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several other pro-Mousavi sites.  “I don’t believe the protestors want to overthrow the system at this time—although their ire at Khamenei may increase,” said Niblett, surprised by the extent of the protests.  Khamenei’s excessive crackdown could lead to revolution.

            Iran wants to divert attention away from election fraud to U.S. meddling in Iranian affairs.  Ahmadinejad has shown great skill at propaganda and the host of diversionary tactics that go hand-in-hand.  Blaming the U.S. legitimizes the government’s current crackdown, where protestors are fingered as subversives trying to topple the hard-line government.  Plainclothes Republicans Guard go about their businesses quietly arresting and incarcerating pro-Democracy dissidents.  Ahmadinejad and Khamenei may have to arrest the Iranian national soccer team for showing support to Mousavi.  When Khomenei seized control in 1979, many open-minded people left Iran before all dissent was squelched.  Khomenei’s regime, like China’s Mao Zedong, aimed at totalitarian control.  What Mao did with communism, Khomenei did with Islamic extremism:  Both took no prisoners.

            Iran’s ruling mullahs face an unprecedented challenge for stealing an election from reform-minded Mir-Hossain Mousavi.  Cracking down on dissent could boomerang forcing the hand of Rafsanjani whose powerful leadership of the Assembly of Experts could vote to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a new leader.  While not likely, Khamenei’s crackdown could backfire demonstrating to fair-minded Iranians the blinding power grab of Islamic extremists.  Arresting Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz, frequently quoted by Western media, shows the extent of the crackdown currently underway.  Allowing Khamenei’s loyal Guardian Counsel to rubber stamp Ahmadinejad’s Interior Ministry election results will no doubt cause more friction with protesters.  Mousavi knows that if he keeps protesting, an extreme crackdown could upend the Khamenei regime.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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