by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 15, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

            Certifying the Iranian election as “free and fair,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won himself another four-year term as official mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Reform candidate Mir-Hossain Mousavi hoped for the best but in the end settled for the verdict of Iran’s powerful, mullah-dominated cleric minority.  Ahmandinejad declared victory prompting rioting and protests in Tehran, Iran’s most populous city and bastion of reform-minded voters, especially college students.  Among Iran’s 70 million citizens, 40 million cast paper ballots around the country.  Within hours, the government announced that Ahmadinejad was reelected handily, beating Mousavi 63.6% to 33.75%.  Pre-election polling showed a tight race, with the campaign growing more bitter by the day, witnessing vicious attacks on both sides.

            As election returns were known by the Interior Ministry quickly, it became less plausible because of the time-consuming nature of hand-counted paper ballots.  Calling Ahmadinejad’s reelection a “divine blessing,” Khamenei transmitted his choice for reelection.  Mousavi’s newspaper, Kalemeh Sabz, claimed that over 10 million ballots went missing, calling on the government to nullify the results.  Government officials reported he results first from Iran’s cities where Mousavi was running ahead in the polls against Ahmadenejad.  High voter turn out was seen a referendum against Ahmadinejad, whose failed economic policies left the country with high inflation and unemployment.  Results reported by the Interior Ministry showed Ahmadinejad winning by a 2-1 margin in all cities and rural areas.  Since Mousavi was running ahead in the cities, the ministry’s election results seem dubious.

              Interior Ministry confirmed a record 85% nationwide turnout of Iran’s 46.2 million voters.  At least 30% of eligible voters were under 30-years-of-age, another factor suggesting a far closer race.  Hand counting votes in Iran’s cities and rural provinces would have taken far longer than reported by the Interior Ministry.  Mousavi had far less appeal to rural and poor voters, a strong support base for Ahmandinejad.  “Personally, I think that it is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad received more than 50% of the vote,” said Konstantin Kosten, an Iran expert at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations.  Capturing over 50% would have put Ahmadinejad over the top, regardless of fraud allegations.  It’s possible that vote tampering increased Ahmadinejad’s margin over 30% margin of victory.  Relative to Ahmadinejad, Mousavi was still virtually unknown outside of Tehran.

             Independent observers are banned from Iran’s electoral process, leaving the process largely controlled on faith by the government.  International monitors would have been helpful in establishing the election’s credibility.  Keeping out monitors, like Iran’s secretive nuclear activities, breed suspicion.  International observers are banned from participating in Iran’s electoral activities.  Berlin-based Democracy Reporting International, headed by Michael Meyer-Resende, indicated that Iran’s election is managed by the government’s Interior Ministry and 12-member Guardian Council of clerics closed tied to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Counting 39.3 paper ballots and reporting findings to the Interior Ministry in 12 hours.  Past election have reportedly taken twice as long to record results.  Speeding up the process raises serious question of voter fraud.

            President Obama showed restraint condemning the government crackdown but stopping well-short of accusing Tehran of fixing the election.  Less than nine years ago, the U.S. had its own disputed election, where unproven accusations hurtled from both political parties.  Few Iran experts expected the government hand the government over to reformers.  On the other hand, past reformers haven’t made too much difference with the Republican Guard and Ayatollah Khameini and Assembly of Experts, the equivalent of the Iranian senate.  Ahmadinejad presents seamless leadership with Iran’s Supreme Leader, seeing eye-to-eye on virtually every social, political and cultural issue.  “I would say it’s completely impossible,” said Meyer-Resende, about the speed with which the Interior Ministry certified the election.  Meyer-Resende doubts whether votes could be counted and certified in 12 hours.

            Massive demonstrating protesting the election indicate that large numbers of voters believe the election was fixed.  President Obama should consult with other members of the Security Council and European Union to take a position on the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad’s reelection.  Assistant Yale University professor and election expert Susan Hyde, who’s supervised elections in the third world for the Carter Center, doubts whether the Interior Ministry could have certified Iran’s election so quickly.  “If they’re still using hand counting, that would be very speedy, unusually speedy,” said Hyde, questioning the results.  Elections in most authoritarian or totalitarian must be questioned in the context of dictators willing to cede power.  While by no means unique, Iran’s election problems demonstrate the limits of Western democracies to secure honest results.  Obama is right to restrain the condemnations now flowing freely from dissidents and pro-Western governments.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2002 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.