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Poroshenko Needs Putin in Eastern Ukraine
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
June 10, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Pro-Russian separatists along the Eastern Ukrainian
border continue to stockpile weapons, showing no signs of heeding Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s call to halt separatist movements. Putin played
a draconic price for seizing Crimea March 1, after watching anti-Russian
protesters Feb. 22 topple the Russian-backed government of Victor Yanukovich.
Driving Yanukovich into exile opened the floodgates of pro-Russian forces in
Eastern Ukraine to seek independence from Kiev’s post-revolutionary government
led by 49-year-old Oleksandr Turchinov and 39-year-old Prime Minister Arseniy
Yatsenyuk. Pro-Russian separatists rejected Kiev’s leaders, asking for
direction from Moscow. When Putin told separatists May 7 to hold off on
independent votes, it was the first recognition that the Kremlin wasn’t
interested in advancing anywhere in Ukraine beyond Crirmea.
Winning the Ukrainian presidential vote May 25, 49-year-old Petro Petroshenko,
the new Ukrainian leader hoped Putin would help settle down restive Eastern
territories. At the remote Marynivka checkpoint on the Russian frontier,
Ukraine’s forces have long-abandoned control to pro-Russian separatists.
“They told us to expect reinforcements. We’re hoping to for them soon,”
said a Ukrainian border guard named Vadim. Most Ukrainian border
checkpoints in remote areas of Eastern Ukraine have abandoned their posts.
Luharnsk border guards loyal to Kiev walked off their posts due to the lack of
reinforcements. With the Ukrainian military in chaos, Poroshenko needs
Putin’s help to maintain order. Putin realized already in Crimea the costs
of subsidizing a small part of the once Soviet satellite. Both leaders
need each other to stop the humanitarian and economic crisis.
Pro-Russian separatists have smuggled in so many arms from Russia and
confiscated so many from the Ukranian military that they can’t be dislodged from
their current positions without Putin’s blessing. Even with Putin’s orders, it may be
too late to retake parts of Eastern Ukraiane without a bloody civil war. “We let them go with their weapons
to avoid a fight. Since their
position was weaker, we would have had to kill them,” said a Ukrainian named
Alexander dressed in a Cossack fur hat.
”I haven’t held a gun in 21-years but it’s not something you forget,”
said 41-year-old Vladimir, a veteran of the Balkan conflict in the 1990s. Many of the pro-Russian separatists
were hardened soldiers who fought as far back as the Soviet-Afghan war. When asked by Turchinov and Yatseyuk
to fight separatists in Eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military decided not to
fight their brothers in the East.
Under Poroshenko’s orders, the Ukrainian army as secured the Donbass
100-km or 62-mile border with Russia with long lines of cars slowly crossing
from Ukraine to Russia. Ukraine’s
army secured the area around Slviansk, where pro-Russian separatists control
more rural areas of Luhansk in the borderland of far Eastern Ukraine. Because pro-Russian separatists are
armed to the teeth, Putin must work with Poroshenko to disarm rebel groups
without starting a civil war. Putin
stated emphatically that Kiev must stop military operations on pro-Russian
separatists before talks can be made negotiating a ceasefire or peace deal. “This is a small province. I don’t think we can be an
independent state—it’s not realistic,” said 42-year-old Mikhail, a resident of a
dilapidated Soviet-style tenement building in Luhansk. Yet local residents are
disgusted with Kiev’s overly aggressive ways.
Poroshenko must call back the Ukrainian army before it’s too late. Dangerously close to civil war,
Poroshenko can’t afford to push things to the brink, when pro-Russian
separatists have no incentive to surrender.
Kiev’s pro-Western leanings that led to the Feb. 22 coup toppling
Yanukovich doesn’t play well in Eastern Ukraine, primarily because no one in the
East can figure out what caused the coup.
Putin accused the U.S. of meddling in Ukrainian affairs, going so far as
to say the CIA sponsored the coup, much the like they did in Tehran against
communist-leaning Mohammed Mosaddegh in 1954.
“But Kiev’s actions are so foul I don’t know who will negotiate with
them,” said Mikhail, mirroring the sentiments of many Eastern Ukraine residents
that don’t back Kiev’s newly elected government.
Poroshenko must make strong overtures to the disaffected areas of Eastern
Ukraine.
Rubbing elbows on France’s Normandy Beach in Northwestern France to honor
the 70th anniversary of WWII’s D-Day, Putin and Porshenko agreed to open a
dialogue with Putin to avoid civil war.
While Putin showed no interest in giving back Crimea, Ukraine’s
48-year-old billionaire chocolate baron won’t settle for anything less. Putn’s big challenge is getting off
his high horse, finding some slick way of saving face and graciously handing
Crimea back to Poroshenko. Russia’s already found out the hard way what it’s like to alienate the U.S., NATO, and
European Union. Watching the
Russian ruble shrink and stock market contract, Putin has already put the
Russian economy on the brink of recession.
Putin realizes that hanging onto Crimea is a costly proposition. Handing back to Poroshenko would put
him back in good stead with the EU, assuring gas sales into the foreseeable
future.
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