Former President Clinton's Message to Barack

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 9, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

             Coming out of the woodwork during an election year, former President Bill Clinton has taken center stage, granting media interviews and throwing in his two cents about President Barack Obama.  While most expect Clinton to help Barack’s reelection bid, he often makes public statements that undermine his campaign.  Speaking with MSNBC’s Maria Bartiromo, Clinton expressed his opinion about continuing former President George W. Bush’s tax cuts. With federal budget deficits about $1.2 trillion hampering future growth, Obama has been battling Republican party boss Grover Norquist’s “no tax pledge,” getting no cooperation from Congressional Republicans on raising taxes on millionaires, the so-called “Buffet Rule.”  “I don’t have any problem with extending all of it right now,” said Clinton, putting his own personal views at odds with the sitting president.

            President Obama wants to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire to collect about 5% more revenue for taxpayers earning $250,000 or more.  Clinton was known for “triangulation,” co-opting his opponents’ ideas to advance his political agenda.  Today’s Republicans subscribe to the discredited theory that lowering tax rates stimulates the economy.  Tax cuts follow an inverted U-shaped curve, where there’s an optimal range for tax rates to produce maximum stimulus.  When taxes become too low, piling up massive budget deficits, it works against a pro-growth agenda by taking too much cash out of circulation to pay government’s borrowing costs.  Clinton should know better because his higher tax rates didn’t interfere with an unprecedented stock market boom in the mid-to-late-‘90s that generated the capital gains and income tax revenues that left the U.S. treasury with surpluses.

            On pure politics, Clinton’s right that pushing for the “Buffet Rule” or millionaires’ tax isn’t fruitful during an election year.  He wants Barack to tailor his message toward independently-minded conservative voters currently sitting on the fence for the general election.  Clinton felt inclined to help shape the Democrats’ message after Vice President Joe Biden tipped his hand May 6 favoring same-sex marriage.  While no one really knows how many votes Biden lost for Democrats, Obama was forced to follow suit and back same-sex marriage a day later.  Since every vote counts in a close race, Clinton’s trying, in his own way, to help buy more Democratic votes.  Clinton also bristled at Obama’s attacks on his rival’s, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, business career at Bain Capital.  Obama strategists wanted to tie Romney’s leveraged buyouts to heartless lay-offs.

            Barack said Romney’s past career was fair game.  Clinton’s called Romney’s work at Bain Capital a “sterling business career,” leading to the perception that Clinton and Obama were on different pages.  When asked about Hillary’s plans in 2016, Clinton couldn’t control the twinkle in his eye, only saying that she looked forward to pursuing her charitable activities.  Clinton’s veiled reference to Hillary’s ambitions hinted that there are potential surprises in the 2012 campaign.  There’s no better way to position Hillary for 2016 than putting her on the 2012 ticket as vice president.  While dismissed currently as wild speculation, the logic becomes inescapable.  With Biden not an option in 2016, it only makes sense to make a move before Democrats meet in Charolotte, N.C., Sept. 3-6.  Most pollsters see adding Hillary to the ticket as winning Obama more votes than keeping Biden.

            Clinton wants to see the Obama campaign attacking Romney’s expected political agenda and policies.  Romney already signed on to shrinking the federal establishments, something that would no doubt shed thousands of government jobs.  Barack doesn’t need to attack Romney’s record on Wall Street or as Massachusetts governor, only follow what Romeny’s GOP friend, former Ebay CEO and current HP CEO, Meg Whitman has done at Hewlett Packard:  She’s laid off 30,000 employees.  If Romney takes the helm on Pennsylvania Avenue in November, he’s already signaled his intent of reducing the federal bureaucracy.  If he’s not raising taxes, he can only start hacking off jobs to reduce deficits and balance the federal budget.  Between now and November, Obama faces a minefield, with GOP Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker beating back a recall effort yesterday and the Supreme Court’s expected ruling on Obamacare.

            Clinton’s apparent disagreements with Obama have more to do with triangulation, hoping to redirect Barack’s reelection bid more toward the right and center.  Touting Romney’s “sterling business career” helps Obama pivot away from personal attacks and more toward policy differences.  No one knows yet what happens to Obamacare in the Supreme Court.  It all hangs on Justice Anthony Kennedy to decide to leave it alone, modify it or cancel it altogether.  If it’s tossed out entirely, it’s going to present challenges for Barack’s reelection efforts.  If polling shows Romney scoring points, Barack may exercise the Hillary option, giving Biden his walking papers.  Hillary brings Obama more women votes, breaking another glass ceiling if he wins in November.  With Clinton making media rounds, look for more trial balloons and surprises as the election draws near.

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