by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright June 9, 2008
ll Rights Reserved.

hen Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) threw in the towel June 7, her forlorn supporters demanded she become Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Il.) VP, insisting she helped the ticket with women, Catholics and older white voters. While insisting for months she would “never” consider VP, she expressed openness to serve in second place. She argued for months—along with her husband former President Bill Clitnon—that Barack was inexperienced, unfit for primetime, lacking foreign and defense policy background. Since calling it quits last Saturday, a growing drumbeat has pressured the Obama campaign into accepting Hillary as VP. Signaling he has no intention of making a hasty decision, Obama appointed Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg and veteran Democratic insider Jim Johnson to conduct the search. All indications point away from Hillary for VP.

      For better or worse, Hillary is a lightening rod for GOP dissent, carrying far higher negatives among Republicans and independents than Barack. Hillary's long track record during her husband's administration—especially her failed 1994 attempt at national health care—raised her negatives among Republicans. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans view her unfavaorably, compared to only 24% for Obama, a curious stat considering Barack was voted more liberal than the ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), the liberal lion of the U.S. senate. Hillary fairs slightly better, for some unknown reason, among conservatives, commanding a 58% unfavorability rating while Barck fairs much better at 18%. You'd think conservatives oppose Hillary and Barack more than rank-and-file Republicans. Contrary to widely held beliefs, many conservatives oppose the Iraq War and seek an exit strategy.

      Barack promised unequivocally to begin the process of ending the Iraq War within 60 days of taking office. Many Republicans—conservatives and others—recognize the damage the Iraq War inflicts on U.S. foreign policy and the economy. They seek, like their liberal friends, an end to the Iraq War. They can't find that approach in presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), promising to continue President George W. Bush's Iraq policy. Obama hopes to capitalize on antiwar sentiment in the general election, pulling in sizable numbers of independents and crossover Republicans. Many antiwar Republicans and independents object to Hillary, potentially turning off this voting bloc. Barack's key constituents, including college educated and upper middle class white males under 30 also object to Hillary. Barack can't afford to alienate this group.

      No one knows for sure whether picking Hillary is a net loss of voters for Barack. It's difficult for Barack to deliver his promise of a new breed of politics by picking one of the most polarizing politicians in recent memory. Without knowing exactly the trade offs, Barack will have to error on the side of caution, picking a VP that doesn't raise as many objections. Hillary faired better than Barack with Catholics, Latinos and lower class white voters. Lower class voters tend to vote less frequently than more educated and affluent voters. After throwing her support behind Barack June 7, those groups should come onboard for Obama in the general election. Now that Latinos, Catholics and older women know Hillary is no longer an option, they're expected to vote for Barack. Hillary hurts Barack more by associating the ticket with Washington's old slash-and-burn partisan politics.

      Vice presidential picks don't tend to dominate the ticket unless they're controversial. Picking Hillary would be controversial to Republicans and independents. Barack would stand to lose a major voting bloc that's willing to compromise unless there's a reason to object. “Mostly you don't vote for the vice president,” said Democratic political consultant Bob Beckel, a former campaign manager to Walter Mondale. Mondale picked a woman, Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, and proceeded to lose by a landslide in 1984 to the late President Ronald Reagan. Of course, Reagan was an exceedingly popular pesident and easily won reelection. It wouldn't have mattered who Mondale picked as VP. Barack, on the other hand, can't afford to alienate any voting groups, especially competing with McCain for independently-minded Democrats and Republicans.

      Prevailing wisdom suggests that because Hillary won nearly 18 million votes, she would generally help the ticket. Many of those same voters would vote Democratic in a general election regardless of the Democratic candidate. While her fans would like to see her as VP, they also don't want to sabotage the ticket by hurting Barack with independents and crossover Republicans. Like in 1980, when Reagan won millions of Democratic votes, 2008 promises to be a year in which Barack must compete for disaffected Republicans and independents, looking for a change. “Obama is plenty energizing enough for Republicans and conservatives,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, believing that Hillary hurts the Democratic ticket. Picking Hillary carries more risks than rewards for Barack seeking to change Washington's bitter partisanship. Starting fresh seems to be the mood in 2008.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.