by John M. Curtis
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Copyright June 7, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

ush-Kennedy-McCain's fragile immigration bill cracked in the U.S. Senate, unable to survive a key vote involving Z-visas, giving some 12 million undocumented workers a path to citizenship. Conservatives in the House like Tom Tancredo (R-Co.) joined hands with conservative talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, who rallied to defeat a bill regarded as amnesty. Conservatives want to eliminate the Z-visa, allowing illegals to stay and work indefinitely. Only undocumented workers seeking citizenship would be forced to pay fines. “We are trying to get the bill passed. All we ask is that the White House weigh-in and try to get some Republicans to vote with us,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), getting that sinking feeling that conservatives have finally woken up. Bush hoped his alliance with Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) would get the job done.

      Faced with upcoming primaries, Republicans are gun-shy to back a bill supported by liberals like Kennedy. Bush has pitched the bill as “the best we can hope to get,” selling out conservatives concerned that the bill worsens an already unenforceable immigration law passed in 1986 during the Reagan years. Democrats and pro-immigration Republicans couldn't get the 60 votes needed to cut off debate and force a vote, losing 33-61. Pro-immigration advocates are “simply not going anywhere trying to stuff the minority,” said conservative opponent Mitch McConnell (R-Ken.). Without conservatives joining forces, GOP supporters like Sen. John Kyl (R-Ariz.) don't have enough votes to get the bill passed. Breaking with conservatives, Sen. Minority Whip Trent Lott (R-Miss.) sought more amendments to preserve the Z-visa, giving undocumented workers legal status.

      Lott's leading the charge to push for the Z-visa. “I'm telling them, too, I've about had it. Enough is enough here now. We're going to get some more amendments,” concerned that conservatives were killing the bill. Debating on Tuesday, former. Gov. Mitch Romney (R-Mass.) called the bill a typical “Washington mess,” not worthy of passage in its present form. He rejects White House pressure that “it's the best immigration bill we can hope to get,” arguing that no bill is better than a bad bill. “Cleary, we need more time,” said Kyl, who's yet to accept the reality that his fellow conservatives are beginning to assert control and kill the bill. Heading into next year's primaries, it's too risky for conservatives to join hands with liberals and Ted Kennedy. Conservatives now want to make any guest workers' program temporary, limiting it to five years.

      Democrats and the White House would have real problems with a temporary program, essentially “sunseting” the amnesty provision. Conservatives like Byron Dorgan (R-S.D.) believe the current bill robs jobs from Americans. Conservative pundits opposed to the bill believe the current bill offers the same type of amnesty that existed in the 1986 law. All the promises of enforcement went unredeemed, leaving a growing number of skeptics trying to kill the current bill. Mass deportations never happened, leaving floodgates open to illegals. There's no provision in the bill's current form to deport Z-visa applicants that don't qualify. Proponents argue that adding a provision for deporting unqualified Z-visa applicants would discourage others from coming forward. Conservatives like Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) fear that there's no enforcement provision for Z-visas.

      Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Co.) led the conservative charge against the bill, eventually forcing Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to withdraw. Conservatives facing reelection couldn't reconcile the bill's provisions with its GOP base. Tancredo's objections pit social conservatives against the corporate community, begging for an endless stream of cheap labor. Conservatives also couldn't reconcile homeland security issues allowing an additional 400,000 guest workers, compromising an already vulnerable southern border. Legalizing 12 million undocumented workers would have drained government largesse, threatening Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, aid to education, food stamps and many other programs disproportionately used by newcomers. White House faced the sinking reality that it may only have Iraq to show for next year's election.

      Immigration reform is dead for the foreseeable future. It died an unceremonious death because it threatened to make an already bad situation worse. Conservative politicians like Tancredo reminded his backers that the White House squandered its political capital on Iraq. Immigration reform did nothing other than commit suicide for conservatives. Conservatives saw no upside to giving a lame duck president a political victory. Handing out Z-visas would have given millions of illegal immigrants no incentive toward citizenship. It would have drained government coffers, threatening the solvency of stretched entitlement programs. However flawed the 1986 immigration bill, the new bill would have reduced border security and stressed an already broken system. Before the White House partners again with Ted Kennedy, it should rethink the political consequences.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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