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Ukraine's New President Must Call Back the Dogs
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
May 29, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Since winning the Ukrainian presidential
election with 54.7% of the vote May 24, 48-year-old billionaire chocolate baron
Petro Poroshenko has watched his predecessor’s attempt to regain gain control of
Eastern Ukraine backfire. Acting
Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchinov saw his latest effort to retake Eastern
Ukraine fail when pro-Russian separatists shoulder-fired heat-seeking missile
brought down a Mi-8 Ukrainian helicopter killing all 12 soldiers on board. Since Oleksandr stepped up attacks
on pro-Russian separatists, the guerrilla war escalated battling to regain
control over Eastern Ukraine. With
the 120,000 residents of Slovyansk a flashpoint for Ukrainian rebels, Turchinov
went for the jugular hoping to hand back Eastern Ukraine to Poroshenko. Poroshenko needs to immediately stop
all military operations in Eastern Ukraine before Putin’s forced to step in.
Poroshenko hoped the handoff slated for June 7 would give him control of
Eastern Ukraine but instead Turchinov’s military operation has made matters far
worse. Lashing out before lapsing
into obscurity, the 49-year-old acting president has made Poroshenko’s work much
harder. Without calling back the
dogs, Poroshenko could lose precious territory in Eastern Ukraine now teetering
on breaking off with Kiev. “It is
extremely difficult to fight against guerrillas.
You just cannot destroy them.
They are not regular troops,” said Igor Sutyagin, a research fellow with
the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Knowing that a protracted guerrilla
war is not winnable should alert Poroshenko to stop all military operations in
Eastern Ukraine. Before he takes
over June 7, Poshenko should be on the phone with Russian President Vladimir
Putin or his Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
Poroshenko’s keys to fixing Ukraine’s mess involves better ties with
Moscow, something deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich tried until he
was rudely evicted Feb. 22.
Poroshenko needs to get a handle on what happened to topple Yanukovich,
including any clandestine work of the CIA or any other European Union spy
agency. Without closer ties to Moscow, Poroshenko will wind up in the same position as Turchinov
and his 39-year-old Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, whose clout with the
Kremlin vaporized. Since toppling Yanukovich Feb. 22, Putin has shown no interest in dealing with the new
Ukrainian government. With
Poroshenko there’s renewed hope that he can work with Moscow to stabilize
Ukraine and get down to the hard business of fixing the economy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov signaled no progress until the Ukrainian military operation ends.
Lavrov insists that for Ukraine to make progress Kiev must end the
“fratricidal war and launch a real political dialogue with all political force
and representative of the region.”
Turchinov and Yatseyuk have been too busy trying to assert power over
pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine to make any progress. Russia’s Foreign Ministry asked the
West to exercise whatever clout remains with Kiev to end military operation in
Eastern Ukraine. “Stop Ukraine from
sliding into a national catastrophe,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry, asking
the same forces that toppled Yanukovich to call back the dogs. While Putin gave some reassurance
that he wouldn’t seek more sovereign territory in Ukraine, he also can’t sit
idly by while the Ukrainian government tries to massacre pro-Russian
separatists. All sides must show
restraint beginning with Poroshenko ending Kiev’s military operation.
Poroshenko’s first act of
leadership must come before he officially takes office June 7. He needs to stop immediately all
Ukrainian military operations in Eastern Ukraine. Once Kiev’s military operations
stop, Poroshenko will be able to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow, paving the
way for reconciliation. Poroshenko
needs to address the anti-Russian, pro-Western forces that toppled Yanukovich
and now threaten to send Ukraine spiraling into civil war. Given Ukraine’s implacable financial
problems, Poroshenko must do everything possible to stabilize the Ukrainian
economy, including completing a bailout package with Moscow or whoever else is
willing to deal with Ukrainian debt. Pro-Western activists in Kiev need to recognize that there’s no free lunch with the
European Union or International Monetary Fund, giving Poroshenko the latitude to
pick the best deal.
Before the current guerrilla war in Eastern Ukraine spins out of control,
Poroshenko needs to open up channels in Moscow to end the crisis. Whatever happened to topple Yanukovich Feb. 22, it’s a whole new ballgame finding the
right fix to end Ukraine’s current civil war.
Warring factions in Eastern Ukraine do little to help solve the problem
by insisting that Moscow annex the region like they did in Crimea. While there are many
Russian-speaking folks looking for closer ties with Moscow, Putin’s in no
position to grab more land or take on more debt. “The Ukrainian generals wanted to show Poroshenko they could act more effectively,” said
Kiev political analyst Vladimir Fasenk, suggesting that Poroshenko approved the
operation. Fixing the problem
requires Poroshenko to urgently end military operations and seek a political
solution satisfactory to all parties.
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