Russia's Medvedev Tells Kadafi to Go

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 27, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                         

             Meeting at a G-8 conference in Deauville, France, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev asked Libyan President Moammar Kadafi to step down.  With the U.S. and NATO stalled in the second month of an air campaign against Kadafi, Medvedev tried to lend what’s left of Russian clout to help end the conflict.  Medvedev sees his former ally as dug in, allowing the U.S. and NATO to bomb Libya into the Stone Age, before Kadafi accepts an exile deal.  Despite criticism of NATO, Medvedev left no uncertainty about Kadafi’s future.  “He should leave,” said Medvedev, signaling to the 68-year-old Libyan dictator that his days are numbered.  “I proposed our mediation serves to my partners.  Everyone thinks that would be useful,” hoping that Kadafi would take a hint.  NATO’s intensified bombing campaign raises disturbing questions about destroying Libya’s post-Kadafi infrastructure.

            Since U.S. Cruise missiles hit Libya March 19, the U.S. has deferred the mission to NATO, executing U.N. Resolution 1993, providing all necessary means to protect Libyan civilians.  Russia has been most critical of NATO’s relentless bombing campaign, hell-bent on ending Kadafi’s 40-year reign of power.  Russian objected vigorously that NATO’s action in Libyan went beyond the U.N. mandate to protect civilians.  Medvedev’s new position indicates that he sees Kadafi, himself, as the biggest threat to Libyan civilians.  Offering Kadafi an exile arrangement, Medvedev tried to give the stubborn dictator a way out of the current standoff.  Sending Russian envoy Mikhail Margelev to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, Medvedev signaled his support of the Libyan Transitional Council.  Libay’s deputy foreign minister Kaled Kaim expressed disbelief that Moscow would back NATO.

                Libya’s Khamis Bridgade, named after Kadafi’s 27-year-old Khamis, continues to shell rebel position with mortars in the Misrata area.  Despite the pounding taken from British and French attack jets, Kadafi’s army remains intact, requiring NATO to change tactics.  Announcing May 26 that NATO would add attack helicopters, it’s still questionable whether airpowers alone can finish Kadafi off.  Medvedev’s support helps the diplomatic message to unequivocally get Kadafi out.  Without a dramatic change of NATO tactics, like back rebel forces with ground troops, the current Mexican standoff could continue indefinitely.  “Russia is one of the traditional friends of Libya  . . We don’t think that Russia will sway tits position to side with NATO,” said Kaim, ignoring the Russian president’s remarks.  No Libyan official believes Russia support Kadafi’s hold on power.

            Russia’s actions are away to help hold off an expected British and French airpower bombardment.   France and Britain worry about the damaging effect of an extended bombing campaign on Libyan infrastructure.  U.S. and NATO forces won’t let up until Kadafi steps down.  Moscow’s change of heart sends a loud message to Kadafi that his days are numbered.  While he chooses to stay locked in his bunker, Libya continues to taking a beating from allied forces.  “There’s no way out,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner.  He called Russian attempts at mediation “constructive” but remained skeptical of whether Kadafi would pay attention.  “He’s no longer the legitimate leader in the eyes of the international community, in the eyes of his own people.  The sooner he accepts that and moves on, the better,” signaling the U.S. wants Kadafi out.

             Russia and NATO know that Kadafi views Libya as his own private fiefdom. His own self-preservation instincts are eclipsed by a cosmic-sized ego that believes he’s a North African deity.  Medevedev’s actions will hopefully give Kadafi a reality check before his delusions continue to destroy the country.  Without seeing the handwriting on the walls, Kadafi will stay holed up in his bunker until he’s found and rooted out.  If Moscow’s message fails, the U.S. and NATO may have no choice other that backing up Benghazi’s rebel forces with ground troops.  Apart from the Khamis brigade, there’s little military support left for Kadafi.  Once France and Britain send in the attack helicopters, they should neutralize what’s left of the Khamis Bridgade and begin the march toward Tripoli.  Only by staking claim to Tripoli, can rebels and allied forces eventually topple the Kadafi government.

            Russia did its part to help accelerate the end to the Libyan war.  Whatever the original intent of U.N. Resolution 1993 authorizing force against Libya, it’s more clear than ever that Kadafi, himself, is the biggest threat to Libyan civilians.  He’s stated publicly that he’ll purge Libya of the some 50% or 15 million Libyans opposed to his dictatorial rule.  Should he remain in power, he’s make his former buddy the late Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic look like a peace activist.  Arab nations, including the Arab League, recall Kadafi’s support for Milosevic’s slaughter of ethnic Albanians.  Western powers recall Kadafi’s Dec. 21, 1988  bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.  Whether in the Arab World or West, all agree that Kadafi must go.  Allowing him to stay holed up in his bunker wreaks more destruction on Libya, making the post-Kadafi era more difficult.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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