by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 11, 2007
All Rights Reserved.

warming Capitol Hill, a contingent of Baghdad officials helped sell President George W. Bush's theory that a pullout of U.S. forces would have disastrous consequences, handing Iraq over to Osama bin Laden. Faced with a deteriorating security situation, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh begged the Congress for time, while Iraq's new army and security grow more capable of maintaining order without the need for U.S. troops. Over four years into a bloody guerrilla war, the death toll on Iraq's civilians and the U.S. military continue to escalate. Congress has been at loggerheads with the White House on a new funding bill, prompting Bush's May 2 veto because of a specific troop withdrawal timetable. Bush wants a “clean bill," one without withdrawal timetables. Bush hopes that his Iraqi and GOP friends help make his case on Capitol Hill.

      Facing reelection next year, many Republican members of Congress are nervous about how continued support for Iraq war hurts their chances. Unlike members of Congress up for reelection, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney plan to return to their ranches to clear brush and write memoirs. Both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Bush's biggest war critics, refuse to give the president his “clean bill” or blank check on Iraq. Saleh and Iraqi Ambassador Samir Shakir al-Sumaidaie hope to help the White House secure an unencumbered funding bill. “He understands that American patience is waning,” said Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), concerned, like others in his Party, that Iraq has become a major liability. Several congressmen expressed grave concern to Bush May 9 about the war's effect on GOP fortunes.

      According to NBC's Washington Bureau Chief Tim Russert, 11 Republican House members read Bush the riot act May 9. “He has to change course in Iraq,” presidential frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) said the GOP contingent told Bush. All expressed concerns that the war could bring down the Party in the next election. Selling Republican senators like Coleman and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) hasn't been easy. Baghdad hopes to hold together a shrinking GOP coalition supporting Bush's Iraq policy. “It is clear that whatever the mission used to be, it is either accomplished or over,” said Clinton, articulating Democratic objections to blanket funding. “If there are remaining American interests, then let's spell them out,” keying on the main difference with the White House, namely, that Bush sees Iraq as the decisive battlefield in the wider war on terror.

      Bush's recent troop surge, beginning Jan. 16, appears to have backfired, causing more U.S. casualties. Adding 28,000 more troops this month, Bush hopes to turn Iraq's violent spiral around by September, when the U.S. military promises to file a progress report. If things don't look good by Sept., GOP senators hint they may join Democrats in supporting a withdrawal timetable. “Iraq is a central battle ground in this historic conflict,” said Saleh, repeating the tired White House talking point that the war on terror hangs in the balance. With Bush's approval ratings dipping below 30%, the White House no longer has the credibility to sell the war. Asking Baghdad's emissaries to sell the war risks antagonizing an already skeptical Congress and public. Bush hopes that Iraq's government officials can sell Congress where his State and Defense Departments have failed to do so.

      With Iraq's security deteriorating, asking for a “clean” funding bill grows more difficult. Bush signaled he's willing to discuss “benchmarks” for Iraqi “progress,” but refused to set conditions for possible consequences, including redeploying U.S. troops. Democrats have no incentive to give Bush what he wants. Congress is well aware of the Iraq government's intent to go on a two-month vacation while American troops continue to lose their lives. “Our armed forces are up to 150,000 troops; we're over $600 billion appropriated for this, lost 3,300 lives, 25,000 wounded fellow citizens . . . And the Iraqi answer? We're taking a summer off. Goin' fishing,” said Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill), mirroring the Democratic talking points that Iraq represents an implacable disaster. GOP talking points about “defeatism” and “surrender” in Iraq no longer resonate with mainstream voters.

      Iraqi politicians aren't the best PR team to sell Iraq's place in the global war on terror. If the White House can't make the case, lecturing about how withdrawing troops would lead to a disaster won't change too many minds. Growing numbers see the ongoing disaster, especially for U.S. troops. Over four years of war hasn't produced the kind of security or stability needed to reassure a skeptical public. When Cheney felt the rumble of a mortar explosion near the fortified “Green Zone” May 9, it didn't reassure anyone about the success of Bush's troop surge. One-month earlier presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) touted new security outside the “Green Zone,” visiting a heavily fortified public market. If the insurgency doesn't slow down and U.S. casualties don't dramatically drop in the next three months, Bush won't have the backing to keep the war going.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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